Analysis this morning showed an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras just east of northern Belize. Satellite imagery showed showers and thunderstorm activity stretching from the western Caribbean northeastward across Cuba and into the Bahamas and northeastward from there into the open Atlantic. It needs to be pointed out that wind shear values across parts of the western Caribbean have decreased yesterday to 10 knots or less from near the northern coast of Honduras southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean. This trend is important as further decreases in wind shear may allow for some type of development in the western Caribbean in the next few days or so.

The GFS operational model really doesnít do a whole lot with the western Caribbean low pressure system, however, the European model guidance, which normally does pretty well with medium and long range forecasts is singing a different tune. The European model guidance is forecasting that the area of low pressure now in the Gulf of Honduras will track northeastward across western Cuba by late tonight and into Wednesday and then across south Florida during Thursday. From there, the European model guidance forecasts that this low pressure system will sit and spin about halfway between the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend before it becomes entangled in an eastward moving frontal system tracking across the eastern United States by next Wednesday and next Thursday.

Analysis this morning showed an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras just east of northern Belize. Satellite imagery showed showers and thunderstorm activity stretching from the western Caribbean northeastward across Cuba and into the Bahamas and northeastward from there into the open Atlantic. It needs to be pointed out that wind shear values across parts of the western Caribbean have decreased yesterday to 10 knots or less from near the northern coast of Honduras southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean. This trend is important as further decreases in wind shear may allow for some type of development in the western Caribbean in the next few days or so.

The GFS operational model really doesnít do a whole lot with the western Caribbean low pressure system, however, the European model guidance, which normally does pretty well with medium and long range forecasts is singing a different tune. The European model guidance is forecasting that the area of low pressure now in the Gulf of Honduras will track northeastward across western Cuba by late tonight and into Wednesday and then across south Florida during Thursday. From there, the European model guidance forecasts that this low pressure system will sit and spin about halfway between the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend before it becomes entangled in an eastward moving frontal system tracking across the eastern United States by next Wednesday and next Thursday.

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