Belize Weather Forecast: May 27, 2012

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Moist and relatively unstable conditions influencing our weather.
24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy skies;several showers and a few thunderstorms will occur over central and coastal areas this morning before spreading inland later today;elsewhere,periods of light to moderate rain will occur.
Winds: East 10-20 knots with occasional higher gusts.
Marine Forecast: **Small craft caution in effect for the coastal waters of Belize** Today: Winds: East 10-20 kts. With higher gusts; seas: Moderate - rough; waves: 4-6 ft.; several showers and a few thunderstorms. Outlook: Monday night:- winds: East 10-20 kts.; seas: Choppy-moderate; waves: 2-4 ft.; a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sea Surface Temp (ºF): 83
Outlook: Through to Tuesday morning: Partly cloudy skies with a reduction in showers.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Friday until Monday, May 25-28, 2012

Conditions this past week improved by Wednesday as a surface low and trough producing the showery weather drifted ENE away from Belize. A tropical disturbance SE of the Carolinas this afternoon is becoming a bit more organized and the NHC is giving this system an 80% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone this weekend. Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean at 10-15 mph. In the NW Caribbean, the persistent trough of low pressure south of central Cuba will drift westwards over the next two days and will reach Belize and Yucatan by Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, in the upper atmosphere a trough over the Bahamas and Central Cuba will swing westwards this weekend, and will provide support to the low level trough in the area this weekend.

Hence, we can expect fair weather with only isolated showers today and on Saturday, but conditions will become increasingly favourable for showery outbreaks with thunderstorms on Sunday through Monday, especially over the sea and coast at first, then over most districts by late Sunday and Monday. Showers will decrease on Tuesday. Kindly note that the 2012 rainy season at most localities in Belize began almost two week early this year.

Rainfall Projections:
Daily rainfall accumulations will be in the range of 0.10 – 0.25 of-an-inch on Friday, increasing to 0.25 – 0.50 on Saturday, especially over the sea and coast. On Sunday and Monday daily rainfall totals will be 0.50-1.25 inch especially over the north and west.

CLICK HERE for the full Belize Weekend Weather Report

Tropical Weather Outlook:Invest 94-L, which is a broad area of low pressure currently located just north of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas is currently tracking north-northeastward this morning. Currently, environmental conditions are not very favorable for additional development with very strong shear over this system.

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