Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Monday, May 28, 2012 9:00 am

Some of you may be asking about the area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and just west of Jamaica. This disturbed weather is being created mainly by vorticity in the middle levels of the atmosphere and a large amount of divergence (basically large amounts of air expanding out upstairs in the atmosphere).

At this point, development into a tropical cyclone is quite low in the short term as there is little or no low-level convergence and no vorticity or spin near the surface. Additionally, wind shear values across the central and western Caribbean are between 30 and 40 knots which is too hostile for any sort of development.

Later on this week and into this weekend, however, this area of disturbed weather may need to be watched more closely as it is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel where environmental conditions are a little more favorable for development. The NAM model forecasts that an area of low pressure may spin up near the Gulf of Honduras by late Wednesday into Thursday. None of the other model guidance forecast any spin-up low pressure systems in the western Caribbean.

My thinking as of this morning is that the chances for tropical development in the western Caribbean for much of this week is nearly zero. Should this area of disturbed weather persists then this might be something that needs to be watched by this weekend. It should be pointed out that even though the GFS and European model guidance do not develop any sort of low pressure system development, they do keep much of the Caribbean wet and stormy for the next 5 to 7 days and that is the type of persistence you are looking for when dealing with possible tropical development.


Joined: May 2000
Posts: 7,052
Offline
I refer to the Crown Weather Services on a daily basis during the storm season and I am sure many of our readers do also. The site runs on donation so if you feel that the website is useful to you please make a donation to Crown Weather Services. They accept paypal. I am not sure of other payment methods.

Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
Offline
The paypal is easy and Crown Weather needs the $.
Also in need is StormCarib.com which has good reporting from people on the islands, along with some interesting tools for knowing what to expect, and when in your location.


Link Copied to Clipboard
June
S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 355 guests, and 0 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics79,209
Posts500,042
Members20,483
Most Online7,413
Nov 7th, 2021



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5