Belize Weather Forecast: June 4, 2012

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Conditions will become less moist and less unstable later today.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy today with some showers and periods of light rain, along with a few thunderstorms mainly over the coast this morning, with showers decreasing and shifting inland this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the coast.
Winds: East - southeast 10-20 knots with higher gusts near thunderstorms.
Marine Forecast: Moisture and instability will decrease during today. **SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS** Today: Winds: E-se 10-20 kt . Seas: Choppy - moderate. Waves: 3-5 ft. Some showers, periods of light rain, and a few thunderstorms, decreasing this afternoon. Outlook: Winds: E-se 10-20 kts. Seas: Moderate. Waves: 4-5 ft. Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sea Surface Temp (ºF): 83
Outlook: (Tuesday & Tuesday night) Partly cloudy with isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly inland and in the south.

WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Sunday, June 3 until Monday, June 11, 2012

Moist and unstable conditions associated with low pressures over Central America and the western Caribbean, a low-level surge of strong breeze across the central and western Caribbean in the ESE’ly trade winds, and divergence of the air in the upper levels, will results in thundery and showery weather persisting over Belize and adjacent areas during the next 10 days of June.

The 24-hour GFS model forecast chart for 10 meter winds, 24-hour accumulated rainfall and the pressure patterns, valid for 6:00 am Sunday, June 3, 2012, shows low pressures centers strung across the Pacific coast of Central America, with fresh E to ESE winds of 15 to 20 knots over the western Caribbean, and rainfall concentrated mostly over and offshore the Stann Creek, Belize and Corozal Districts on Saturday through Sunday morning. A trough of low pressure is also projected to remain over the extreme NW Caribbean and Yucatan through Monday.

The GFS model 132-hr projected vorticity pattern at 5,000 feet valid for Thursday evening, June 7, 2012, shows a trough of low pressure extending across the eastern Gulf of Mexico to coastal waters of Belize and the surge of strong low-level winds in the central and western Caribbean. This surge will enhance the convective activity generated by the low pressure trough in the NW Caribbean on Friday through most of the upcoming weekend.

The GFS model 24-hour rainfall totals ending at 6:00 am on Thursday, June 7, 2012 depicts rainfall totals in the range of 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch for Wednesday and Wednesday night in the range of 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch, mostly over areas north of the Toledo District. Rainfall will be higher in the elevated areas of the Stann Creek and Cayo Districts, and favorable for quick runoff in some localities of these districts.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook: The models are not forecasting any tropical cyclone formation over the Caribbean during the next five days.

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Tropical Weather Outlook: For the North Atlantic... Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

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