For a while the cloud pattern became a little ragged...but during the past hour or so...high resolution images are showing the development of an eye feature. This means that Iris could be strengthening as we speak. Once the circulation of Iris gets away from Jamaica...it will be moving over the northwestern Caribbean where the upper oceanic heat content is very high. This... in combination with low shear...will provide a favorable environment for development. Historically... a large number of hurricanes have become major hurricanes in this region. Iris continues to be steered by a strong and persistent mid-level ridge to the north. This pattern is not expected to change...keeping the hurricane on a general westward track through the forecast period. Iris could reach eastern Yucatan or northern Belize as a major hurricane in about 36 to 48 hours
tracking line continues to move south. gringolian cold front keeping the storm from going out the chute between cancun and cuba. looks like tomorrow will be batten down the hatches day. Its not the biggest one, so far, but it can gain strength as it comes over from jamaica.
it will traverse a large part of that tonight, and then tomorrow it will come the rest of the way and come ashore, probably late evening they predict. where it comes ashore? well they predict it right now for northern Belize, but its also quite possible that the cold front pushes her further south still. the trajectory curve has been dropping south continually for several days. honduras is being added to the watch area.
[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-07-2001).]