WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Monday-Monday, Sep. 10-17, 2012
HAPPY 10th SEPTEMBER!
Here is the Weekly Outlook. It will continue unseasonally dry this working week. Very unsual. Not a tropical wave in the Caribbean at the moment. Some thunderstorms noted around T & T and the ABC Islands..
The Caribbbean will continue remarkably quiet this week except in the SW where moisture will concentrate around mid week, but will move inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by Thursday and Friday.
Have a fine week!
An upper level low near northern Yucatan this morning is forecast to drift SE into the NW Caribbean over the next 24-36 hours and gradually dissipate. This feature will continue to support a few showers and some thunderstorms over and offshore Belize through Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will develop over the extreme NW Caribbean and Belize on Wednesday, but the lack of moisture and unfavorable environmental conditions will not support much convective activity with this system. Otherwise, an east to east-northeasterly airflow will prevail across Belize during this working week through the upcoming weekend, associated with a weak pressure pattern over the NW Caribbean.
Convergence of moisture is forecast in the SW Caribbean east of NE Nicaragua and Honduras in association with a surge in the low level easterly jet around and after mid week. However, organization of this disturbance is not expected as it moves over land across northern Nicaragua and Honduras by Thursday and Friday.
No tropical cyclone is expected to form or move into the Caribbean region during the next seven days. September 10th marks the historical peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane season. In the Atlantic we have tropical storm Leslie heading toward Newfoundland, while hurricane Michael is located in the central Atlantic west of the Azores, heading westwards. A tropical disturbance is located midway between the Caribbean and the Cape Verde Islands. This system has a 90 % chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts WNW at 15 to 20 mph. The forecast track has this disturbance veering NW away from the Caribbean. So, the Caribbean will remain remarkably quiet over the next seven days. Nevertheless, we must remain vigilant as we move into the latter part of September and the month of October, when the preferential areas for tropical cyclone formation shifts to the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Rainfall rates over Belize will be in the range of 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday in the heavier showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast and in the South. Daily rainfall rates will decrease on Wednesday through the weekend, with daily accumulations of only 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch in locally isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms, especially in the interior and in the hills. Rainfall will be minimal elsewhere during this period.
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