<img align=left width=130 height=110 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/looptuesmidsm.gif"><img align=right width=180 height=194 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/geos18sm.jpg">
TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000
...KEITH DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD CHETUMAL MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
BELIZE FROM MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE TO THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO MONKEY RIVER TOWN
BELIZE.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=220 height=176 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bwtuesmid.jpg">
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF AMBERGRIS CAY.
KEITH IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH. WHILE LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT DRIFT COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=250 height=137 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigtuesmidsm.jpg">
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS KEITH MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RECENT HAM
RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
TO THE WEST OF BELIZE CITY SINCE SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 10 INCHES
HAVING FALLEN DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane KEITH
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ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 16.10 -82.90 09/28/21Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 16.20 -83.20 09/29/03Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 16.20 -83.20 09/29/09Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 17.20 -84.30 09/29/15Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
5 17.60 -85.20 09/29/21Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
5A 17.70 -85.30 09/30/00Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
6 17.90 -85.30 09/30/03Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
6A 17.80 -85.50 09/30/06Z 55 995 TROPICAL STORM
7 18.10 -86.30 09/30/09Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM
7A 18.20 -86.40 09/30/12Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM
8 18.00 -86.60 09/30/15Z 70 984 HURRICANE-1
8A 18.00 -86.60 09/30/18Z 70 982 HURRICANE-1
9 18.00 -86.80 09/30/21Z 85 970 HURRICANE-2
9A 18.00 -87.00 10/01/00Z 90 966 HURRICANE-2
10 18.10 -87.10 10/01/03Z 100 960 HURRICANE-3
10A 18.10 -87.40 10/01/06Z 105 955 HURRICANE-3
11 18.00 -87.30 10/01/09Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
11A 18.20 -87.50 10/01/12Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
12 18.10 -87.60 10/01/15Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
12A 17.90 -87.70 10/01/18Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
13 17.90 -87.90 10/01/21Z 110 951 HURRICANE-3
13A 17.80 -87.80 10/02/00Z 95 958 HURRICANE-2
14 17.90 -87.90 10/02/03Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
14A 17.90 -87.90 10/02/04Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
14B 17.80 -87.90 10/02/06Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
15 17.60 -87.80 10/02/09Z 85 975 HURRICANE-2
15A 17.70 -87.80 10/02/12Z 80 979 HURRICANE-1
16 17.70 -87.80 10/02/15Z 70 979 HURRICANE-1
16A 17.70 -87.90 10/02/18Z 65 979 HURRICANE-1
17 17.70 -88.00 10/02/21Z 65 987 HURRICANE-1
17A 17.90 -88.00 10/03/00Z 65 988 HURRICANE-1
18 18.00 -88.10 10/03/03Z 60 988 TROPICAL STORM
18A 18.10 -88.10 10/03/06Z 55 989 TROPICAL STORM
+12 18.20 -88.20 10/03/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
+24 19.00 -88.60 10/04/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
+36 20.40 -89.40 10/04/12Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
+48 22.50 -90.50 10/05/00Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
+72 26.00 -93.00 10/06/00Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
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[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-03-2000).]
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