Watching Gulf, Caribbean for Slow Tropical Development
May 29, 2013; 9:35 AM
There is a chance that a broad area of moisture near Central America now leads to modest tropical development next week in the vicinity of Yucatan, Mexico.
A broad area of disturbed weather was enhancing showers and thunderstorms over central America this week.
One low pressure area was attempting to form on the Pacific side of the disturbed area.
There is some indication that an another area of low pressure could slowly brew on the Atlantic side, in the swath from the northwest Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico during the first full week of June.
June 1 marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Mexico Tropical Flood Threat
Downpours to Drench the Caribbean This Week
AccuWeather.com 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Development next week could be limited due to and expected southward dip in steering-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico.
These winds would tend to disrupt the vertical structure of any weak system attempting to brew in the region or could keep such a system from becoming fully tropical.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to closely monitor this area of the tropics over the next several weeks as it generally is a favored area for development early in the season.
What is likely to happen in the area from Central America, the neighboring eastern Pacific, western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week is continued flare-ups of showers and thunderstorms. The repeating downpours will raise the risk of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.
It is possible that drenching rain and gusty thunderstorms, organized or not by tropical low pressure, could push northward over the Florida Peninsula later next week. Some of the central and northern counties of the peninsula are experiencing moderate to severe drought.