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Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466767
06/17/13 11:05 AM
06/17/13 11:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Navy Track...

[Linked Image]

From Hugh in Belmopan:

By and large, the rain has not been all that heavy, just persistent.

In Belmopan, we had a brief period of stronger wind from the north, blew fine rain spray into windows normally not effected.

I have flown a Cessna 150 in 30 - 35 mph winds, so should not cause any problem flying in to Belize city tomorrow.

Could well still have rain Tuesday, possibly still some into Wed.

=====

from another friend....

I'm not in Belize City but i heard there is already a bit of flooding in some areas.

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466775
06/17/13 01:15 PM
06/17/13 01:15 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
more from Hugh in Belmopan....

Been out around Belmopan the last two hours.. . . .Still raining, but as long as you are not in it for more than 5-10 mins, you don't get particularly wet, so not heavy.

Been checking the wind, I estimate 15 - 20 mph Beaufort number 4 - 5. . . . ..

From the Wunderground chart, ( Not updated since 09am BZT) This TD2 should be right on top of us about now.

But wind still from the NE and generally between about 15 - 20 mph , with another 16.1mm rain making today total so far of 25.3mm ( 1" )

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466776
06/17/13 01:25 PM
06/17/13 01:25 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Current satellite views of the storm

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466777
06/17/13 01:37 PM
06/17/13 01:37 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

A tropical disturbance moving from the western Caribbean toward southeastern Mexico has become Tropical Depression Two.

The system will unleash torrential rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides in the region. There is a chance the system becomes Tropical Storm Barry before reaching mainland Mexico at midweek.

Tropical downpours from northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras and Belize to southeastern Mexico can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time.

Two-day rainfall, as of Monday morning, in Honduras includes 5.64 inches in La Ceiba and 4.26 inches in Trujillo.

Proximity to land (less than 60 miles) is expected to limit much development before it reaches Belize Monday afternoon. However, plenty of warm water on either side of the peninsula is available to the system and may sustain it somewhat after making landfall.

This enhanced satellite image shows Tropical Depression Two approaching Belize as of Monday midday, June 17, 2013.

Accuweather


Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466778
06/17/13 01:39 PM
06/17/13 01:39 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,080
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye The Coastal Express has stopped running and we're getting some major surge. It's going to be a rough night on the ocean front.
[Linked Image]


White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466779
06/17/13 02:03 PM
06/17/13 02:03 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 337
San Pedro AC
Capt. Hollywood Offline
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Capt. Hollywood  Offline
North Side of the bridge, by the theater, water is getting high. almost impassable.

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466780
06/17/13 02:16 PM
06/17/13 02:16 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,204
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
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Diane Campbell  Offline
Wow Elbert- that is the dock at Solaria, no?

Beach trail/road from Barrier Reef to Indigo is impassable.




Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466782
06/17/13 02:46 PM
06/17/13 02:46 PM
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 4
E
Emblie Offline
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Emblie  Offline
E
When is this crapola going to be over with? I'm on vacay!!!

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466784
06/17/13 02:48 PM
06/17/13 02:48 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.4n 88.4w
about 10 mi...15 km NE of Monkey River Town Belize
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
satellite...radar...and surface data indicate that the depression is
currently near the coast of southern Belize and should move inland
within the next few hours.

At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 88.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19
km/h. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the
center will move over Belize and northern Guatemala tonight and
early Tuesday...over eastern Mexico later on Tuesday. The
depression could emerge into the southern Bay of Campeche by early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Weakening will occur while the center moves over land
tonight and Tuesday. Some strengthening is possible by early
Wednesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
across portions of Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...
along with the Mexican states of Chiapas...Tabasco...Veracruz...and
the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash
flooding...especially in mountainous areas.

Wind...gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.

although the center of the depression has been hard to locate this
afternoon...satellite and radar imagery as well as surface
observations suggest that the depression is very near the coast of
southern Belize. The system did not strengthen this afternoon...and
in fact became a little less organized as it approached the coast.
The current intensity is kept at 30 kt although this might be
generous. The cyclone should move over land...some of it
mountainous...for the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore it is
conceivable that the tropical cyclone could dissipate in that time
frame.

The initial motion estimate is 290/10. The global models show
an east-West Ridge weakening...but remaining in place...over the
northern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. This should
maintain the west-northwestward heading with a slowing of forward
speed during the next 48-72 hours. The 1800 UTC track guidance is
somethat slower than that from this morning...and so is the
official track forecast. The NHC track prediction is very close to
the latest GFS...however the new ECMWF model run is farther south
and suggests that the system might not be able to emerge into the
Gulf of Mexico.

The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall...which could
cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and
eastern Mexico.


Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean [Re: Marty] #466785
06/17/13 04:09 PM
06/17/13 04:09 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,133
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

Pic is at casa miradores... Down from Victoria house just about 1/2 hour ago smile. Water is almost covering dock and getting into pool.

Photo by Robert Justman

NEMO ADVISORY No. 2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO

LOCATION...16.4N 88.4W, ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF MONKEY RIVER, BELIZE

AT 03:00 PM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROX. 12 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

*IN THE STANN CREEK DISTRICT:

MULLINS RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE THE TEMPORARY (BY-PASS) BRIDGE ON COASTAL ROAD AND IS CLOSED TO VEHICULAR TRAFFIC

NORTH STANN CREEK RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING IN MIDDLE SEX, PAMONA AND HOPE CREEK

SOUTH STANN CREEK RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING

SITTEE RIVER IS 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING

WATER IS ACROSS THE HUMMINBIRD HIGHWAY AT MILES 13, 18 AND 20

BOWMAN HOUSING AREA AT MILE 15 IS UNDER 6 INCHES OF WATER.



*IN THE TOLEDO DISTRICT:

BOOM CREEK ROAD AT ARMANDO CREEK IS 3 1/2 FEET UNDER WATER AND IS CLOSED TO VEHICULAR TRAFFIC

BLUE CREEK IS 4 INCHES BELOW THE BRIDGE AND RISING

BLADDEN, TEMASH & MOHO RIVERS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING


PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS BELIZE. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT 6:00 P.M BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.

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