WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
June 17-24, 2013
SYNOPSIS for 6:00am Tuesday, June 18, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA THIS MORNING. AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...3:00 AM BELIZE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO TODAY, WITH DAILY ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO: AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, A BROAD BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, CONDUCEIVE TO MORE SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK, REACHING THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BY THURSDAY EVINING AND EARLY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK:
THE GFS FORECAST MODEL (24-120-HR) RESOLVE PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND BELIZE DURING THIS WORKING WEEK AND THROUGH THE UP-COMING WEEKEND. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT DAILY ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE HILLY AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE BELIZE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF ON THHURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS AND ALONG THE COAST AND CAYES ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS INSTABILITY PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN REGION IN THE FORM OF A LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A TRAIN OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ALSO, A RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER.
DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 OF-AN-INCH ARE PROJECTED OVER MOST DISTRICTS DURING THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES OF 1.25 – 3.00 INCHES OVER AREAS OF THE COAST AND NORTHERN REGIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RAINS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AREAS OF THE TOLEDO AND STANN CREEK DISTRICTS, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS LATER ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH DAILY TOTALS OF 0.50-1.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HILLY TERRAIN. SOIL MOISTURE IS ALREADY AT FIELD CAPACITY, SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PROVOKE MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
RFrutos
Meteorologist/Hydrologist
June 18, 2013
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