Belize Weather Forecast: June 18, 2013 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Tropical depression #2 is now west of Belize. Incessant rains continue for Belize. Advisories: **Small craft warning for coast of Belize...Small craft should remain in safe harbour until further notice.** 24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy skies. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will occur mainly inland and in the north. Elsewhere periods of light to moderate rain will occur. There is a high risk for flooding. Winds: Northeast 10-20 knots with higher gusts near showers and thunderstorms, becoming East-Southeast 15-25 knots this evening and tonight. Marine Forecast: Today: Winds: E/SE 15-25kts with higher gusts near showers and thunderstorms.; seas: Rough.; waves: 5-7 ft.; some showers,isolated thunderstorms and periods of light rain. Outlook: (Wednesday night):E/SE 15-25k.; seas:Rough; waves:5-7ft.; a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Sea Surface Temp (°F): 82 Outlook: Through to Thursday morning: Continuing mostly cloudy skies with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly along coastal areas. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am the center of tropical depression#2 was near 17.0°N and 86.4°W or about 30mls east northwest of Tikal,Guatemala. Maximum sustained winds were near 30mph.The system is heading west northwest at 8mph.Little change in strength is forecast while the center of the depression remains over land.Wind gusts to near tropical storm force are occuring over portions of the country and this is likely to continue. Flooding is also highly likely over low-lying areas. Click for our complete daily Tropical Weather Information Wind & weather forecast for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro: Great information for sailors... Current Caye Caulker Weather Information Belize Hydrological & Flooding Information Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)   High Low Coastal 27° C 80° F 24° C 75° F Inland 28° C 82° F 22° C 72° F Hills 25° C 77° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: Low - 12:09 PM High - 5:49 PM Low - 11:22 PM High - 5:45 AM (WED.) Sunrise - 5:18 AM Moonrise - 1:43 PM Sunset - 6:29 PM Moonset - 1:36 AM (WED.) CLICK here and here for detailed weather data

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have gray sky and drizzling rain.
The expected high is 80. Looks like a wet day ahead.

WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
June 17-24, 2013

SYNOPSIS for 6:00am Tuesday, June 18, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA THIS MORNING. AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...3:00 AM BELIZE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO TODAY, WITH DAILY ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO: AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, A BROAD BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, CONDUCEIVE TO MORE SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK, REACHING THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BY THURSDAY EVINING AND EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THE GFS FORECAST MODEL (24-120-HR) RESOLVE PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND BELIZE DURING THIS WORKING WEEK AND THROUGH THE UP-COMING WEEKEND. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT DAILY ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE HILLY AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE BELIZE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF ON THHURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS AND ALONG THE COAST AND CAYES ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS INSTABILITY PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN REGION IN THE FORM OF A LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A TRAIN OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ALSO, A RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER.

DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 OF-AN-INCH ARE PROJECTED OVER MOST DISTRICTS DURING THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES OF 1.25 – 3.00 INCHES OVER AREAS OF THE COAST AND NORTHERN REGIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RAINS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AREAS OF THE TOLEDO AND STANN CREEK DISTRICTS, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS LATER ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH DAILY TOTALS OF 0.50-1.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HILLY TERRAIN. SOIL MOISTURE IS ALREADY AT FIELD CAPACITY, SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PROVOKE MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

RFrutos
Meteorologist/Hydrologist
June 18, 2013

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