Belize Weather Forecast: August 14, 2013

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: A moist and unstable northeasterly airflow dominates our weather ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Seas will continue locally rough due to gusty winds during showers and thunderstorms.
Advisories: *Small craft caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies with sunny breaks today. A few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will affect the country but especially coastal areas. Cloudy to overcast skies tonight with showers and thunderstorms increasing up north.
Winds: North to northeast at 5 - 15 knots with higher gusts near showers or thunderstorms.
Marine Forecast: Today: Winds: N-NE 5-15 kts.; seas: Choppy.; waves: 3-5 ft.; a few showers and thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds and locally rough seas. Outlook: Thursday night:- winds: SE 10-20 kts.; seas: Choppy - moderate.; waves: 3-6 ft.; a some showers and thunderstorms (mainly north).
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 83
Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for mostly cloudy skies with some showers and thunderstorms mainly in the north.

WET WEATHER ON THE WAY
A Tropical Wave heading in our general direction will bring with it wet weather and the possibility of a tropical depression or higher this weekend. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami give the northwestward moving tropical wave a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The chances of further development increases to 40% over the course of the next 5 days as upper level winds become conducive for development as the wave moves over the Gulf of Mexico. So heading into the second half of the week, keep those umbrellas handy and stay tuned to the weather report for updates. Patrick E. Jones

Tropical Weather Outlook: Surface observations sugggsts than an area of low pressure is likely forming between the northeastern tip of Honduras and the Cayman Islands where showers and thunderstorms have beome concentrated. Conditions are favourable for additional development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward at 10 to 15mph toward the Yucatan Peninsula. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and interest in the Yucantan Peninsula (including Belize) should monitor the progress of this system.
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