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Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476191
11/01/13 07:17 AM
11/01/13 07:17 AM
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 66
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Sunny Reef Offline
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Sunny Reef  Offline
S
Sorry but I really hate this!

Exactly one year ago we had a short discussion in this forum (the Cayes) and I saw what Elber posted ".....I hardly believe short range forecasts, unless its falling on my head ....." and yes, we had many "important people" who posted about possible tropical storms and in very few cases it was really acurate.
The only thing we do with these kind of publications: we keep people back from coming to Belize and we harm our own businesses.

Yes, there's a 99% changes that there will be another tropical storm forming somewhere in the Atlantic area during the month of November but what does this really mean? Well it means that I can count one and one together and it'll always add to 2 but maybe I should rather shut my mouth because it does not give any useful information to not one person.

Once again: I hate this and would love people to "gain their own self-confidence" while posting true and important messages and no 50:50 or less options and make others crazy with these worthless information - sorry, but that';s how I feel!


Again another beautiful day in paradise - just smile and be happy :-)
Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476211
11/01/13 10:09 AM
11/01/13 10:09 AM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,460
Belize City
K
Katie Valk Offline

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Katie Valk  Offline
K
Marty, I am ok with you posting in advance something which might affect us. I found the info helpful and work around it.


Belize based travel specialist
www.belize-trips.com
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Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Katie Valk] #476212
11/01/13 10:17 AM
11/01/13 10:17 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,026
Rockport, Maine
klcman Offline
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klcman  Offline
How can any information that potentially saves loss of life & property be useless?

What? You would rather wake up some morning to a TS or stronger storm, totally unprepared and advised?


_ _ _ _ _ _ _________________ _ _ _ _ _ _
But then what do I know, I am but a mere caveman
Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476215
11/01/13 10:49 AM
11/01/13 10:49 AM
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 3,294
San Pedro
tacogirl Offline
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tacogirl  Offline
Life is a long preparation for something that never happens.
William Butler Yeats

When it comes to storms I would rather it be a false alarm than not know and not have an opportunity to prepare.

With the size if the puddles we get in some areas even heavy rain is a good cause for preparation. People can get well stocked and not have to go out if they do not need to.


Original Belize Blog since 2007 and great for travel resources and discounts https://tacogirl.com/

Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476223
11/01/13 12:40 PM
11/01/13 12:40 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,091
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
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Diane Campbell  Offline
WeatherUnderground says .......


By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013 +28
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2C (0.37F) above average, and well above the 26C (79F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.

Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: klcman] #476251
11/01/13 05:12 PM
11/01/13 05:12 PM
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 66
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Sunny Reef Offline
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Sunny Reef  Offline
S
Originally Posted by klcman
How can any information that potentially saves loss of life & property be useless?

What? You would rather wake up some morning to a TS or stronger storm, totally unprepared and advised?

A possible hurricane can be excellently monitored and our systems work very well to prepare and evacuate (if necessary) and make our visitors feel safe and my personal opinion is that we should not always scare everyone.

I'm in Belmopan now and locals and tourists are scared. They published that a huge storm would arrive within 2 days and all of them want to watch the 10pm news - I'm not sure if that was necessary and I see how people love to challenge others' fears - ..... and don't like it.

I know that Marty does a great job and I appreciate everything he publishes - I criticize these "weather gurus" who (to me) do not seem very professional. They had announced very much above average hurricane seasons years ago when then we had very much below average seasons and I do not want to know how many possible guests had changed their minds and did not come to Belize because they were very much scared. Cheers


Again another beautiful day in paradise - just smile and be happy :-)
Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Diane Campbell] #476282
11/02/13 04:30 AM
11/02/13 04:30 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,601
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
Originally Posted by Diane Campbell
WeatherUnderground says .......
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013 +28
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.

This is a huge relief to hear. My largest worry by far is a major hurricane direct hit.
The weather folks are a business like any other , they need you to keep reading and keep coming back to their site. Some sensationalizing has creaped into the weather reporting in the last few years and I'm sure they have a COs saying 'We got to get those numbers up' just like the rest of the planet. Nothing is pure and innocent anymore unless its a memory.


White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476285
11/02/13 05:08 AM
11/02/13 05:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 62,692
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

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Marty  Online Happy OP
i seldom put up things that are not for sure, but occasionally I do. I was uncertain on this threat a few days ago when this thread started,but I decided to go ahead and publish to err on the safe side. One other time this season I made the same choice. That time nothing came of it either.

If I had chosen to not publish, and a storm came, I would be seriously disappointed in my decision. VIce versa, its not as bad.

Also, I publish a daily Tropical Weather Outlook, with reports from several major storm prognosticators.

It has the most recent information I have.

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196.html

Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476306
11/02/13 06:44 AM
11/02/13 06:44 AM
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 66
S
Sunny Reef Offline
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Sunny Reef  Offline
S
You do it right, Marty, and as Elbert says ".....a business like any other , they need you to keep reading and keep coming back to their site..." but I see how many people get scared and then I do not like these predictions anymore.

I was sitting in the middle of hurricanes not just once and know what to expect but I know how very much (since Katharina) people are horrified and I feel sorry for our tourism if some people do too much and make others change their plans and not come to Belize just because they have an idea!

Yes, we must protect, prepare and be ready to act and react and I know that that's what you always have in mind - thank you very much. :-)


Again another beautiful day in paradise - just smile and be happy :-)
Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty] #476314
11/02/13 07:02 AM
11/02/13 07:02 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 62,692
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

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Marty  Online Happy OP
here's Jeff Masters' November Tropical Weather Prognostication

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/476199/Atlantic_November_2013_Hurrica.html#Post476199

I hear you Sunny Reef, on possible bad publicity from posts such as this. Its a balance one has to be careful of.... thanks for your note...

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