Very Stormy Weather For The Lesser Antilles Will Spread Into The Western Caribbean On Friday & The Gulf Of Mexico On Saturday
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Wednesday, December 25, 2013 11:11 am
Good Morning and Merry Christmas.
I received some weather reports from the island of Saint Lucia that there was some very stormy weather there last night. These reports indicate that there were some very heavy rain with flash flooding which swept away bridges with mudslides as well.
This severe weather, which is also impacting much of the Lesser Antilles this morning, is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. This trough of low pressure is forecast to track westward reaching the western Caribbean by about Friday. At the same time a piece of energy from this trough is currently forecast to track west-northwestward and northwestward and sideswipe the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday into Friday with some very squally weather possible, including very gusty winds of 40-plus mph, heavy rainfall with a flash flood threat.
Now, the part of the trough that reaches the western Caribbean on Friday is forecast to help to spawn the development of a low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This interaction and morphing of the trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean to a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will lead to heavy rainfall with squalls of strong winds from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula from late Thursday into Friday. From there, rain with amounts of up to 1 to 3 inches are forecast from the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida northeastward through southern Georgia, much of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina throughout this upcoming weekend. Additionally, gusty easterly of up to 30 to 40 mph are possible along the Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday.
Given that the actual weather associated with this trough of low pressure is more severe than what the forecast guidance are showing, it is very prudent to keep close tabs on it and be aware that its impacts could be stronger than what I have written above & it is something that I am aware of and am keeping close tabs with.