The Atlantic Hurricane Season began on Sunday and already there are tropical concerns for the Gulf of Mexico, along with the eastern Pacific, this week. Meteorologists are monitoring an area of low pressure south of Mexico and an area of disturbed weather across Central America for eventual tropical troubles in the Gulf of Mexico.
The area of disturbed weather currently over Central America is expected to develop into a broad area of low pressure across the Bay of Campeche at midweek.
Depending on the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure, this low could track to northeastern Mexico with drenching showers and thunderstorms or slowly meander near the Yucatan Peninsula later in the week.
In the latter solution, the low may then spread heavy and potentially flooding rain to Florida, western Cuba and the Southeastern U.S. Friday and through next weekend.
Even if the low heads to northeastern Mexico, the above places may still face tropical troubles during the first half of June.
Energy from the low currently in south of Mexico (not the low itself though) could eventually reach the southern Gulf of Mexico, re-organize and spread heavy rain to a portion of the Southeast during the week of June 9.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be closely monitoring both of these features for possible development as they pass over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The main battle each faces will be wind shear (strong winds above the surface that can rip apart tropical systems).
Some wind shear is also present in the vicinity of the low currently south of Mexico. However, the low should overcome this obstacle and develop into a tropical depression within the next couple of days.
The low may further strengthen into a tropical storm as it drifts northward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by midweek. The next tropical storm in the eastern Pacific would acquire the name “Boris.”
Whether this low maintains its strength and makes landfall along or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will depend on how the future low in the Bay of Campeche evolves.
“After developing in the next 48 hours, I think that the system will sit near the [Mexican] coast and slowly weaken into the end of the week, possibly as the [low in the Bay of Campeche] begins to develop,” stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Regardless of exactly which low becomes the dominant feature on the weather map, southeastern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize will become the target of torrential rainfall this week.
“Flooding rain and mudslides would be the main impact, with some mountainous areas potentially receiving 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain this week,” stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Cities at risk of a soaking include Merida, Belmopan and Guatemala City. Vacationers at the resort cities of Cancun and Chetumal also face an unpleasant stretch of wet weather.
“It has already been active across the resort areas on the Yucatan Peninsula due to daily thunderstorms, but the weather will only get worse this week as moisture from the tropical systems comes into play,” Miller continued.
Despite the disruptions to vacationers and the prospect of flooding and mudslides, Miller pointed out that the rain will bring long-term benefits to easing the ongoing drought across the area.