Two Month Outlook For Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Across The Atlantic, Gulf Of Mexico & Caribbean: I am becoming increasingly more concerned with the weather pattern that may set up for the next 30 to 45 days. The reason for my increasing concern is that this weather pattern is dangerous for the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical storm and hurricane impacts.
I am watching the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (What is the Madden Julian Oscillation? Click Here For Details) as it is currently tracking across the central and eastern Pacific and is helping to produce multiple tropical cyclones across the Pacific. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is currently forecast to reach the Atlantic Basin around mid-August and may hang around the Atlantic right through the end of this month and into part of September.
If this wasn’t enough, there are strong signals in both real-time data and the various forecast guidance members that the large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic is building westward which means that any tropical storms or hurricanes will be able to track very close to, if not directly impact the US East Coast, Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 30 to 45 days.
In addition, ocean water temperatures are warming up off of the coast of northwest Africa and this will moisten up the atmosphere across the eastern and central Atlantic leading to much less dry and stable air and a more favorable environment just as we are getting into the peak time of the Hurricane season.
It really looks like to me that Arthur and Bertha are just warning shots and that we will likely see additional threats across the Bahamas and along the US East Coast. Across the Gulf of Mexico, I think that we may see at least a couple of tropical storm or hurricane threats, if not direct impacts over the next 30 to 45 days. The pattern is such that we are likely to see tropical systems form and strengthen very close to the coastal United States (East Coast & Gulf of Mexico).
I think we may see up to 3 more threats from tropical storms or hurricanes along the US East coast the rest of this hurricane season. For the Gulf of Mexico, I think that we may see 1 to 2 threats from tropical storms or hurricanes the rest of this hurricane season.
For the Caribbean, the overall pattern looks to support most of the tropical activity north of the Caribbean, however, I think at least a couple of tropical storms or even hurricanes may impact the Caribbean during the rest of this hurricane season.
I cannot emphasize this enough, I have some fairly serious concerns that we may be in a potentially dangerous weather pattern for the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico in terms of tropical development. Everyone should keep close tabs on any activity out there and have that hurricane preparedness kit ready in case you have to put it to use.