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Tropical Development Possible NW Caribbean #495133
08/29/14 04:44 AM
08/29/14 04:44 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,739
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Somewhere Between The Northwestern Caribbean & The Western Gulf Of Mexico Between Sunday & Tuesday: A tropical disturbance that is located over the east-central Caribbean continues to be disorganized with showers and thunderstorms occurring across the east-central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola. These thunderstorms are not organized and are being sheared apart by 20 to 30 knots of shear.

Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development as this disturbance tracks westward across the central and western Caribbean today into Saturday. By Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as this disturbance moves into the northwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for tropical development as this system moves into the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.

Given the favorable environment that this disturbance will be tracking into by Sunday and Monday, I think that organization and strengthening of this disturbance will occur as it is tracking across the northwestern Caribbean on Sunday, but the actual development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm may hold off until it moves into the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Once this disturbance moves into the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will be guided by an upper level ridge of high pressure located over the eastern United States. This means that a west-northwest track across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico during Monday and Tuesday as it continues to strengthen. This could ultimately lead to this system coming ashore along the coast of northeast Mexico by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however, this is not a sure thing and a track further north is certainly possible.

Everyone across the northwestern Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, central and northeast Mexico and coastal Texas should closely monitor this disturbance.

I am monitoring this disturbance and will keep you all updated.

Finally, there are signals in the forecast guidance that indicate that the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may remain active with the possibility of one to two more chances for tropical development during the first two weeks of September.

Crown Weather

Re: Tropical Development Possible NW Caribbean [Re: Marty] #495155
08/29/14 09:39 AM
08/29/14 09:39 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,739
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Caribbean disturbance 97L headed towards Mexico
In the Central Caribbean, a tropical wave (designated as 97L by NHC earlier this week, but no longer being labeled as such) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear was a high 20 - 30 knots on Friday, and will remain high through Saturday. On Sunday, when the wave will be in the Western Caribbean, shear will fall, but the wave will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The wave should emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday, and development odds will be higher then. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the GFS, showed some weak development occurring in the Bay of Campeche on Monday and Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. Given the propensity of tropical storms to quickly spin up in the Bay of Campeche, I'd put the 5-day development odds at 40%. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest towards the Mexican coast south of Texas.

Jeff Masters

Re: Tropical Development Possible NW Caribbean [Re: Marty] #495170
08/30/14 04:43 AM
08/30/14 04:43 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,739
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Tropics May Come Alive Again Next Week Near Mexico

As Cristobal loses its tropical characteristics, attention is turning toward the Bay of Campeche for potential development early next week.

A tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean has the potential to become the Atlantic Basin's next tropical depression or storm in the Bay of Campeche, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, early next week.

The Bay of Campeche is where conditions will become conducive for development as the water is very warm and a zone of lower wind shear will be present. Wind shear refers to belts of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that can shred apart tropical systems when strong enough.

The wave is currently encounter such disruptive wind shear and would continue to do so if it takes a more northern track into the western Gulf of Mexico.

The orientation of the Bay of Campeche and how it aligns with the counter-clockwise flow around developing systems have proven to be another contributing factor to tropical development.

"Weak systems that enter this region of the Gulf of Mexico tend to be aided by the curvature of the coast, which helps to spin systems up into tropical depressions or storms," stated Meteorologist Rob Miller.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name "Dolly."

This animated gif shows the tropical wave over the Caribbean. (NOAA/Satellite)

Widespread flooding, damaging winds and rough surf will become more of an issue if the wave develops and strengthens.

Prior to reaching the Bay of Campeche, the wave will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to Jamaica Friday night through Saturday and Central America through the weekend. The Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula will see an increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity as the weekend progresses.

"As with most weak tropical systems, the shower and thunderstorm activity will follow a diurnal pattern with the afternoon and evenings being most active," stated Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Rain and thunderstorms associated with the wave will wet Cancun and Chetumal and southward to Belize City on Sunday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will follow for Monday.

"The next few days are shaping up to be the one of the most active periods so far for places from Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula," added Kottlowski.

As will be the case across eastern mainland Mexico and South Texas, rain from the wave will generally be viewed as beneficial across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

"Many of these places are experiencing below-normal rainfall this summer," stated Kottlowski.

Since June 1, Belize City has received only 55 percent of its normal 20.15 inches (511.9 millimeters) of rain. That percentage has been held to 37 percent of the 13.29 inches (337.5 millimeters) of rain for Chetumal, Mexico.


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