Belize Weather Forecast: September 25, 2014 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Moist and unstable conditions continue to affect the country. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Cloudy with some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms over most areas. Winds: East to northeast 5-15 knots. Marine Forecast: Today: Winds: E/NE 5-15 kt.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 1-3 ft.; some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms. Tomorrow: Winds: E/NE 5-15 kt.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 1-3 ft.; some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms. Marine Outlook: (Friday night): Winds: E/NE 5-15kt.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 1-3ft.; some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms, mainly south. Sea Surface Temp (°F): 83 General Outlook: Similar weather will continue on Friday and Friday night. Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico. Click for our daily Tropical Weather Report Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro Wind & weather forecast for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro: Great information for sailors... Caribbean winds site: An animated map of Caribbean wind and weather. Click for a green circle or position, showing the exact location longitude and latitude, temp and wind speed. Current Caye Caulker Weather Information Belize Hydrological & Flooding Information Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)   High Low Coastal 30° C 86° F 24° C 75° F Inland 32° C 89° F 22° C 72° F Hills 24° C 75° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: High - 10:40 Low - 4:37 PM High - 10:38 PM Low - 5:08 AM (FRI.) Sunrise - 5:42 AM Moonrise - 7:37 AM (FRI.) Sunset - 5:46 PM Moonset - 6:48 PM CLICK here and here for detailed weather data

Some quick updates on the tropics:

Gulf Of Mexico: An area of disturbed weather is located over the western Caribbean at the very tail end of a frontal boundary this morning. Tail end disturbances like this always need to be watched for potential development. Right now, wind shear values are between 20 and 30 knots and immediate development is unlikely, even though it appears that there is some rotation with the disturbance.

Part of this disturbance is expected to be pulled northward into the central and eventually the northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend where a surface low pressure system is expected to form very near the coasts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi around Sunday or Monday. This low pressure system will hang around the northern and northeast Gulf coast through Tuesday and Wednesday.

One thing that is for sure is that the pattern which consists of the combination of the frontal boundary that will be hanging around the Gulf of Mexico and the forecast of low pressure developing along the northern Gulf coast means that excessive rainfall with amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle starting on Saturday and continuing through all of Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before ending on Wednesday.

This pattern of multiple disturbances and multiple low pressure systems moving around the Gulf of Mexico means that tropical development is a possibility and cannot be ruled out. I will be monitoring the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and will keep you all updated.

Central Atlantic: An upper level low pressure system just northeast of the Lesser Antilles near 23 North Latitude and 60 West Longitude is expected to gradually dive west-southwestward into the northern Caribbean by this weekend. There are no signs that a surface low pressure system is forming with this disturbance and immediate development is not expected. This system will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from tonight into Friday.

Another disturbance located near 15 North and 43 West Longitude or about 1100 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to be gradually pulled northwestward over the next few days. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development and I do not expect any sort of development from this disturbance.

The Bahamas & US East Coast: An area of low pressure is expected to meander just offshore of the New Jersey coast throughout today before pulling out to the east by Friday and Saturday. This means widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue today from the northwestern Bahamas northward to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and parts of Massachusetts, mainly south of Interstate 90. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across much of this area. This stormy weather will pull offshore during Friday.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

From Belmopan... 08:30 BZT

Rain, rain all night, at least in Belmopan and many other areas, OK mainly light rain, fairly continuous, but with some much heavier bursts. . .. .I recorded 33mm ( 1½" ) over night, making yesterdays total 44mm ( nearly 2" ).. . . .We are now above the September typical rain. . . . There is still a lot of rain around, some very heavy. . . ..

The direction of Rain on the Radar, is not necessarily the direction of wind. . . . Rain can develop in different directions for other reasons, so you will see the general rain is moving in from the East, but some of the Heavy rain, appears to be moving or developing northwards.. . . .True to form, the Radar packed up just when things are getting interesting.. . .. .

In fact we have an ITCZ swell up just off shore of Belize, getting bigger.

So don't start looking for the Sun this morning, probably overcast almost all day, with continuing outbreaks of heavy rain and long periods of lighter rain in much of Belize . .. The Radar shows it mainly in central Belize, but I suspect there is rain in all parts of Belize from time to time.. .. .This is not un-typical of weather at this time of the year, as the ITCZ starts to break up into smaller patches. . .. This weather is a general movement of wet air moving up from the South.. .. .Hopefully we will see some easing of, of this rain later today.

p.s. That Atlantic rotation I mentioned a couple of days ago, is actually moving towards Africa, away from us.

More rain on the horizon for today. Gotta say we kinda liking this weather for a change. Days are still beautiful.

Ambergris Today

From Belmopan... 10:15 BZT

Radar working again :
Just shows what I was suspecting, more rain still coming in.