Some quick updates on the tropics: Gulf Of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather is located over the western Caribbean at the very tail end of a frontal boundary this morning. Tail end disturbances like this always need to be watched for potential development. Right now, wind shear values are between 20 and 30 knots and immediate development is unlikely, even though it appears that there is some rotation with the disturbance.
Part of this disturbance is expected to be pulled northward into the central and eventually the northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend where a surface low pressure system is expected to form very near the coasts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi around Sunday or Monday. This low pressure system will hang around the northern and northeast Gulf coast through Tuesday and Wednesday.
One thing that is for sure is that the pattern which consists of the combination of the frontal boundary that will be hanging around the Gulf of Mexico and the forecast of low pressure developing along the northern Gulf coast means that excessive rainfall with amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle starting on Saturday and continuing through all of Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before ending on Wednesday.
This pattern of multiple disturbances and multiple low pressure systems moving around the Gulf of Mexico means that tropical development is a possibility and cannot be ruled out. I will be monitoring the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and will keep you all updated. Central Atlantic:
An upper level low pressure system just northeast of the Lesser Antilles near 23 North Latitude and 60 West Longitude is expected to gradually dive west-southwestward into the northern Caribbean by this weekend. There are no signs that a surface low pressure system is forming with this disturbance and immediate development is not expected. This system will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from tonight into Friday.
Another disturbance located near 15 North and 43 West Longitude or about 1100 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to be gradually pulled northwestward over the next few days. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development and I do not expect any sort of development from this disturbance. The Bahamas & US East Coast:
An area of low pressure is expected to meander just offshore of the New Jersey coast throughout today before pulling out to the east by Friday and Saturday. This means widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue today from the northwestern Bahamas northward to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and parts of Massachusetts, mainly south of Interstate 90. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across much of this area. This stormy weather will pull offshore during Friday.
Crown Weather Serviceshttp://www.crownweather.com