From Belmopan... 11:30 BZT
This is the area of rotating air I reported on several days ago.. .. After that, it even appeared to be going back towards Africa, presently it appears to be stationary.. . . .Now the Wunderground people have picked up on it.. . . But, to me, it still looks like it is not organising, in fact it has been breaking up today.. . .. But notice their comments below. . .. As I say, later in the year, Oct, Nov, it is more likely for a Tropical Storm to develop in the Caribbean than the other side of the Atlantic.
(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)
INVEST 96L NOT A THREAT
A small area of disturbed weather with periodic bursts of convection near 13°N/42°W remains disorganized as it continues to drift WNW at around 5Kts. Although wind shear remain moderate near 15Kts and there actually are indications of some outflow at high levels – the system remains surrounded by relatively dry and somewhat stable air which is inhibiting development. None of the global or dynamical specialized hurricane models are forecasting development, while the typically overdone statistically based intensity models forecasting a slight intensification over the next 5 days. Assuming the system even survives at all, it’s likely to move WNW and then NW before getting absorbed by an approaching upper level TROF.
There are only a couple other Tropical waves across the Tropical Atlantic basin and they’re embedded in generally hostile environments. Meanwhile, I can no longer identify any upstream tropical waves over Africa – a sure sign that the ‘Cape Verdes’ Hurricane Season is rapidly winding down – with the Caribbean region likely to be only area where a cyclone that could threaten the US may yet develop during the remainder of the Fall season.