My gumbo limbos are already showing new leaves (end of dry season)... that long front sure fooled them, or have they? what do they know that we dont. the wiser cedars are holding off.
when is your prediction for the start of rainy season?? think the average is something like may 21st.
Your 21st May could well be the average, but it is a very variable start. . . One year, I got it right to the day, 28th May. . . . Last year it started early, actually the 1st May, with 43mm ( 1 3/4" ) by the 4th May, after an April with absolutely no rain at all.
I have an expression " April Showers, May it Pours" . . . . What I mean is that usually, we can expect the odd shower in April, not usually heavy rain. . . . But we occasionally can get the odd heavy rain in May, before the Wet season starts, usually around the last week in May.
But some years we have not had a proper dry season, some years we have not had a proper wet season. . . . Our weather is not sharply defined like in some countries.
You asked what do Gumbo Limbo trees know that we don`t. . . ..The answer is nothing.
Trees, birds and animals have even less secret weather predictions than we humans have. . . ... .They react to the past, not the future.
But Gumbo Limbo will show new leaves very easily. . . . We have pushed into the ground a number of Gumbo Limbo cut sticks and they showed new leaves within a week or so. .. . One was pulled out and the leaves wilting. . . . I stuck it back in its hole as best I could in the dry conditions and its leaves revived, that was before we had that recent rain. . . . The Boucut trees near us started their pink flowers a week or two ago, and now starting to leaf. . . . This is in response to the winter temperatures and then the warm dry period. . . .. .Almond trees will suddenly drop their leaves, when they see prolonged dry sunny days, then start to push out new leaves.
We had what was effectively a very early Dry season from Early February to late March, rather unusual, but has fooled a number of trees. . . .. . .Now we are in the proper or typical dry season, which will probably end in late May. . . At least there is now moisture in the ground to keep trees healthy until the rains do start.
The last few years :
You can see how varied the temperatures are over each year of the last 5 years and the rainfall even more variable.
This rain fall graph, first shows the typical pattern, then each years variability, the heavy light blue line is the 31 day running average rain, and the thin light blue is the running Year, ( ± 183 days) averages.