As of right now, the GFS model remains the only piece of guidance that is consistently hinting at either an enhanced area of disturbed weather or tropical cyclone development to begin just southwest of Jamaica towards the end of next week. The GFS model forecasts that this disturbed weather could hang around the western Caribbean and the Bahamas right through the end of this month. None of the other global models are showing tropical development over the next 7 to 10 days. Given that the overall weather pattern, as I have mentioned before, does support tropical mischief, it is something to keep an eye on over the next week or two. It should be noted that the GFS model was the first to pick out the potential for Ana to form. On the other hand, however, the GFS model is notorious for spitting out phantom storms that never develop and this could be very well the case here.
Across the southwestern, central and perhaps even the western Caribbean where the GFS model guidance has been very consistent in forecasting the development of widespread disturbed weather across this region starting between Wednesday and Friday of next week and continuing through the week of May 25th. It looks like the upward motion pulse (wet phase) of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move into the Caribbean next week. This wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will help to facilitate and support robust thunderstorm development across the western half of the Atlantic Basin. The latest data hints that the upward motion pulse may hang on right through the end of this month and possibly into early June.
I think the chance for tropical development between May 20th and May 31st is very low right now, this is going to be something I will be watching and will keep you updated on the latest.
The weather is changing around us right now. I am guessing at present, that we will have significant rains in the next 2 - 3 weeks. We still have the NW high clouds from north Mexico clashing with the easterly Caribbean winds, which may have given southern Toledo rain over night. But now the SW Pacific winds from near Panama are streaming up over the Caribbean and significant ITCZ activity down over the sea to the south of Panama.
I expect today over Belize to be fairly similar to yesterday, a fair bit of cloud and sun, possibly the odd rain shower, more so down south.
Temperatures in Belmopan:
Today is probably going to be Similar, to yesterday :
Wed, max 33°C 92°F Last night min 24°C 75°F ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )