Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Analyzing 60 years of Belize hurricane history #504270
05/15/15 12:40 PM
05/15/15 12:40 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,302
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Weather forecaster Frank Tench today presented nearly 60 years of historical data on cyclone activity in Belize, revealing all the tropical storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes which have crossed the country since 1954. There have been a total of 29 such cyclones, 12 of which were tropical storms and 12 of which were hurricanes, apart from 5 of the hurricanes which were intense hurricanes, categories 3 and higher.

Tench’s presentation—which was made this afternoon at the 5th Annual Belize Esri User Conference held at the Biltmore Plaza Hotel in Belize City—looked at how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific – which fluctuates between a warm phase (El Niño – Spanish for ‘the boy’), a neutral phase, and a cool phase (La Niña – Spanish for ‘the girl’) – correlates the frequency of storms which have impacted Belize. He showed that most of those storms have occurred during the neutral phase, and the fewest have occurred during the El Niño phase.

Intense Hurricanes Impacting Belize 1954 - 2013

The good news is that we are currently in the El Niño phase, which Tench said is expected to persist throughout the hurricane season. This, Tench said, ties with predictions that this year’s hurricane season will see below normal cyclone activity.

As we reported back in April, a single major hurricane is predicted to form in the Atlantic Basin this year, but the forecast also calls for 7 named storms and a total of 3 hurricanes.

The data set for 1954 to 2014 indicates that for that period 12 storms formed during the La Niña years, 16 storms during the neutral phase and only 1 during the El Niño phase. That 1969 storm, Francelia, just happened to impact Southern Belize during what has proven to be the most active month of the year for tropical cyclones impacting Belize: that is, the month of September.

Tench said that data published by NOAA (National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration) put peak cyclone activity at September 10 – which is also the date that the unnamed 1931 hurricane, said to be the worst in the country’s history, swept ashore in Belize City (then Belize Town) killing over 1,500 Belizeans on St. George’s Caye Day.

Tench said that as a general rule, during El Niño episodes, fewer tropical storms form over the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean and the opposite appears to be true during La Niña years.


Re: Analyzing 60 years of Belize hurricane history [Re: Marty] #504286
05/16/15 04:33 AM
05/16/15 04:33 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,216
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
Diane Campbell  Offline
I thought Keith was pretty intense .... And it is not on the map?

Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
Maruba Beach Klub and Spa is the premiere Secret Beach spa and restaurant located on the crystal blue waters of the Caribbean Sea at the center of Secret Beach, Belize
First Class Accommodations for the Budget Traveler
First Class Accommodations for the Budget Traveler

Things to do

Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Love FM
The Reporter
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater
San Pedro Fun Finder
Paradise Guy Event Calendar
Cayo Event Calendar

San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Belize Happy Adventures
Conch Creative
Caribbean Culture & Lifestyle
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Click for Ian Anderson's Caves Branch, Welcome to a World of Adventure
Lil Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
ShoutChat Box
Who's Online Now
0 registered members (), 153 guests, and 0 spiders.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Most Online4,377
Dec 15th, 2020 HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.1