Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2015 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Moist and unstable conditions will continue for the next few days. Advisories: **Small craft caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms** 24-hour forecast: Cloudy to overcast with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain mainly along coastal areas. Winds: North to northeast at 10-20 knots with higher gusts near heavy showers and thunderstorms. Marine Forecast: Today: Winds: N-NE 10-20 kts with occnl higher gusts; seas: Moderate - rough; waves: 4-7 ft; some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain. Tomorrow: Winds: E-NE 10-20 kts with occnl higher gusts; seas: Moderate - rough ; waves: 4-7 ft; some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain. Marine Outlook: (Saturday night) Winds: East 10-20 kts with occnl higher gusts; seas: Moderate - rough ; waves: 4-7 ft; some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain. Sea Surface Temp (°F): 85 General Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for continuing cloudy and wet weather. Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for our daily Tropical Weather Report Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro Wind & weather forecast for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro: Great information for sailors... Caribbean winds site: An animated map of Caribbean wind and weather. Click for a green circle or position, showing the exact location longitude and latitude, temp and wind speed. Current Caye Caulker Weather Information Belize Hydrological & Flooding Information Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)   High Low Coastal 28° C 83° F 25° C 77° F Inland 30° C 86° F 23° C 73° F Hills 25° C 77° F 21° C 70° F TIDES: Low - 6:01 AM High - 12:09 PM Low - 5:24 PM High - 11:48 PM Sunrise - 5:46 AM Moonrise - 8:42 AM Sunset - 5:30 PM Moonset - 8:20 PM CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

For several days some of the major global forecast models, including the European and GFS systems, have suggested some kind of tropical or non-tropical disturbance may develop in the Gulf of Mexico during the second half of next week.

What could happen is that an area of disturbed weather now off the coasts of Belize and Honduras will move across Central America during the next couple of days and develop into a tropical storm, or possibly even a hurricane by Tuesday or so of next week. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is a 50 percent chance of the system becoming at least a tropical depression south of Mexico. Heavy rains are a big concern for Central America and Mexico.

Then, by the middle of next week, the system should get pulled north, across Mexico, toward the Gulf of Mexico. It might die over land, or some remnants might emerge into the Bay of Campeche and then move north into the western or central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday or Friday.

On Ambergris Caye this morning it's a cool 76f. with an expected high of 83. Safe to say we're in for some more rain.

great photo!!!

From Belmopan...

The wet high level air is still streaming up from the south, causing a lot of wet air and rain, some heavy in the Caribbean just off out coast. Southern Belize has had a fair amount of rain over night and more coming in. Central and Northern have a little rain and more coming in. The largest and heaviest rain will probably go just north of Belize today.

I expect today to remain overcast, with patches of rain anywhere, some could be heavy.

Temperatures in Belmopan:
Today is probably going to be Similar or Warmer, to yesterday : Thu, max 27°C 80°F Last night min 23°C 74°F ( Coast usually cooler, hills even

big front passing through the country, San Pedro missing most of this wave, as we are on the very northern edge of the storm. More coming later though, we'll get our time...

We're getting a hard rain and constant, lots of flooding. The wind from the South has been 20-25 mph at times during the night. I would expect to see some boats down in San Pedro when the sun comes up.

So far the only storm-casualty at my house is my deluxe hummingbird feeder. Can't believe it, but I think I just saw a hummer looking for it. How can they fly in this wind?!
Along with the probability of sunken boats Elbert mentioned, seas are high and shoreline is probably taking a licking. The big red and purple blob on the Intellicast radar looks like an all- day event or longer....