9am Tues, Official Reports

Print Thread

9am Tues, Official Reports #5084 10/03/00 10:34 AM 10/03/00 10:34 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 68,923 oregon, spr Marty OP .
Marty OP	<img align=left width=130 height=110 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/looptues9asm.gif"><img align=right width=160 height=157 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bwtues9asm.jpg"> TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000 ...KEITH WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...WEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. <br clear=all><img align=right width=225 height=192 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigonetues9asm.jpg"> THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD STILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ARE EXCEEDING 25 TO 30 INCHES. REPORTS HAVE ALSO BEEN RECEIVED OF NUMEROUS HOUSES DEMOLISHED IN SAN PEDRO...WHICH SPENT OVER 24 HOURS IN THE WEST EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. <br clear=all><img align=right width=180 height=207 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/geos20sm.jpg"> FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion 869 WTNT45 KNHC 031446 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000 ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND KEITH IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING SMARTLY TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN YUCATAN...BUT THERE MAY BE A LOWER LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST. DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET MISSION IN THE GULF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE DATA WERE WELL-ANALYZED BY THE AVN BUT SEEMINGLY NOT SO BY THE UKMET. UNFORTUNATELY THE AVN AGAIN HAS KEITH IN THE WRONG PLACE...SO WE CANNOT RELY MUCH ON MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF...IT IS HARD TO SEE KEITH MAKING AS MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS INDICATED BY THE BULK OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGTHENING ONCE KEITH GETS BACK OVER WATER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN <font size=3 face="courier, courier new"> Code FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 18.3N 89.4W 30 KTS 12HR VT 04/0000Z 18.5N 90.2W 25 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1200Z 19.1N 91.3W 25 KTS 36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.2N 92.4W 35 KTS 48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.5N 93.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 06/1200Z 25.0N 95.0W 65 KTS Hurricane KEITH ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT 1 16.10 -82.90 09/28/21Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 16.20 -83.20 09/29/03Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 16.20 -83.20 09/29/09Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 17.20 -84.30 09/29/15Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 17.60 -85.20 09/29/21Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM 5A 17.70 -85.30 09/30/00Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM 6 17.90 -85.30 09/30/03Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM 6A 17.80 -85.50 09/30/06Z 55 995 TROPICAL STORM 7 18.10 -86.30 09/30/09Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM 7A 18.20 -86.40 09/30/12Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM 8 18.00 -86.60 09/30/15Z 70 984 HURRICANE-1 8A 18.00 -86.60 09/30/18Z 70 982 HURRICANE-1 9 18.00 -86.80 09/30/21Z 85 970 HURRICANE-2 9A 18.00 -87.00 10/01/00Z 90 966 HURRICANE-2 10 18.10 -87.10 10/01/03Z 100 960 HURRICANE-3 10A 18.10 -87.40 10/01/06Z 105 955 HURRICANE-3 11 18.00 -87.30 10/01/09Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4 11A 18.20 -87.50 10/01/12Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4 12 18.10 -87.60 10/01/15Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4 12A 17.90 -87.70 10/01/18Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4 13 17.90 -87.90 10/01/21Z 110 951 HURRICANE-3 13A 17.80 -87.80 10/02/00Z 95 958 HURRICANE-2 14 17.90 -87.90 10/02/03Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3 14A 17.90 -87.90 10/02/04Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3 14B 17.80 -87.90 10/02/06Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3 15 17.60 -87.80 10/02/09Z 85 975 HURRICANE-2 15A 17.70 -87.80 10/02/12Z 80 979 HURRICANE-1 16 17.70 -87.80 10/02/15Z 70 979 HURRICANE-1 16A 17.70 -87.90 10/02/18Z 65 979 HURRICANE-1 17 17.70 -88.00 10/02/21Z 65 987 HURRICANE-1 17A 17.90 -88.00 10/03/00Z 65 988 HURRICANE-1 18 18.00 -88.10 10/03/03Z 60 988 TROPICAL STORM 18A 18.10 -88.10 10/03/06Z 55 989 TROPICAL STORM 19 18.30 -88.70 10/03/09Z 45 993 TROPICAL STORM 19A 18.30 -88.90 10/03/12Z 40 993 TROPICAL STORM 20 18.30 -89.40 10/03/15Z 30 995 TROPICAL DEPRESSION +12 18.50 -90.20 10/04/00Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION +24 19.10 -91.30 10/04/12Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION +36 20.20 -92.40 10/05/00Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM +48 21.50 -93.50 10/05/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM +72 25.00 -95.00 10/06/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1 </font> [This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-03-2000).]