General Caribbean Activity
A bigger picture of what is happening in our part of the world.
The ITCZ activity is happening from time to time down near Panama.
There are two lines of high level Pacific air. One from well west of us, that swings up over Mexico and curls down over the Yucatan and Belize often. The other develops in the Pacific just off Panama and also swings up in a curve, that then feeds cloud out over the Atlantic. Hurricane activity can develop out of these Pacific ITCZ active areas, sometimes even from early April through to July or so. Then the other Hurricane development area is just to the west of Africa and comes across the Atlantic towards us, generally more likely in July to October.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 1856–2013
While the number of storms in the Atlantic has increased since 1995, there is no obvious global trend; the annual number of tropical cyclones worldwide remains about 87 ± 10.