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#516506 - 08/04/16 03:47 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 4 – 10, 2016

The passage of Tropical Storm EARL expected to partially mitigate dryness over Central America.

During late July, scattered moderate to heavy rainfall was observed along coastal areas of Central America, while suppressed rainfall prevailed throughout the interior of the region. This resulted in mostly below-average rainfall during the past week and contributed to the persistence of drier than average conditions over eastern and central Guatemala, Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua over the past thirty days. During July, these dry portions of Central America have received only between 25-80 percent of their average rainfall and have also experienced below-average number of rain days. As a response to the inconsistent rainfall over the past several weeks, crop damages and losses have already reported over many areas of the Dry Corridor, including portions of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. If a favorable distribution of rainfall does not return over the upcoming weeks, the ongoing dryness may further negatively impact agricultural activities and reduce crop yields over wide area of the region.

During the next week, the development of Tropical Storm EARL over the northwestern Caribbean is expected to bring heavy downpours along the Gulf of Honduras region. The forecast heavy rain could trigger flooding and landslides over the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern coastlines of Honduras, Belize, and northern Guatemala. Abundant rain is also forecast throughout the interior of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Gulf of Fonseca. This should help reduce or eliminate accumulated rainfall deficits and alleviate dryness over many local areas of the dry portions of Central America. Farther south, the Pacific Rim of the Southern Caribbean could receive heavy, while its Caribbean counterparts are expected to experience lighter rain.


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#516743 - 08/10/16 01:55 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 11 – 17, 2016

Tropical Storm “Earl” led to flooding in Belize, relief to dryness over neighboring areas in northern Central America

In the last seven days, the inception and passage of Tropical Storm “Earl” brought significantly heavy rainfall across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras region as it made landfall over the Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Analysis of satellite 7-day rainfall estimates show widespread heavy rainfall accumulations in excess of (>100mm) extending westward from Jamaica to the Campeche state of Mexico. The onset of torrential rainfall triggered localized flooding in parts of Belize, but helped bring some relief to many anomalously dry areas of northern Guatemala and northern Honduras. While the increased rainfall was beneficial for dryness in the north, many interior departments in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are still experiencing persistent dryness as rainfall deficits remain between 50-80 percent of normal since late July. The inconsistent rainfall over the past several weeks has already led to crop damages and losses over many areas. If a favorable distribution of rainfall does not return over the upcoming weeks, the ongoing dryness may further negatively impact agricultural activities and reduce crop yields over wide area of the region.

During the next week, moderate to heavy rainfall amounts are forecast many anomalously dry parts of Honduras, as well as throughout southern Guatemala. The enhanced rainfall is expected to help alleviate short-term and long-term moisture deficits in the Gulf of Fonseca region and throughout Honduras. Many Atlantic facing departments are forecast to receive average to below-average rainfall. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the outlook period.


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#516931 - 08/18/16 05:01 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 18 – 24, 2016

Average to below-average rainfall expected to continue over Central America during the next week.

From August 9-15, heavy rain fell over Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras. This has helped reduce thirty-day rainfall deficits over many local areas of the dry portions of the region. Farther south, torrential rain was observed over the Southern Caribbean. Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall was recorded over the interior of Honduras and western Nicaragua. Since mid-July to present, negative rainfall anomalies, with deficits exceeding 100 mm, have been observed over portions of southwestern and northeastern Guatemala, east-central Honduras, and much of Nicaragua. The number of rain days has been below-average, particularly over western Nicaragua over the past thirty days. Due to poor rainfall distribution over the past four weeks, recent vegetation indices have already indicated stressed crops over many local areas of Central America. Conditions on the ground may worsen and impact ongoing cropping activities over many local areas if a favorable rainfall distribution does not return within the upcoming weeks.

During the next week, model rainfall forecasts suggest a continuation of wet weather patterns over Guatemala, portions of Honduras, and El Salvador. The forecast average to above-average rain should help eliminate moisture deficits further over portions of Guatemala and Honduras. Enhanced rainfall is also expected along the Atlantic Basin of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, which should help reduce thirty-day negative rainfall anomalies over some localized areas. In contrast, light to locally moderate and below-average rain is forecast across the interior of central Honduras and central Nicaragua, which could sustain moisture deficits and dryness in the region.


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#517100 - 08/26/16 04:06 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 25 – 31, 2016

Reduced rain forecast along the Atlantic Basin of Central America during the next seven days.

During the past week, an increase in rainfall was observed over parts of Central America. Moderate to heavy rain fell over Guatemala, eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. The heaviest (> 100 mm) rain was received over the southwestern and northern portions of Guatemala, localized areas of eastern Honduras, southeastern Nicaragua, and the Pacific and Atlantic Basins of Costa Rica and Panama. In Guatemala, torrential rain caused the overflowing of the Cotoxa River, affecting many people in the San Luis area of the Peten department. Despite this past week’s average to above-average rain over some areas, moisture deficits have persisted over localized areas of Honduras and most parts of central Nicaragua over the past thirty days. The continuation of insufficient and poorly-distributed rain could negatively affect ongoing crops, associated with the Primera, May-August, and land preparation and planting for the Postrera, August-November rainfall seasons over some local areas. An analysis of recent vegetation indices has indicated a deterioration of ground conditions over localized areas of east-central Honduras, western and central Nicaragua. Consistent rain is needed to eliminate accumulated moisture deficits and mitigate dryness over the dry portions of Central America.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts indicate the return of heavy downpours along the Gulf of Fonseca and western portions of Nicaragua. The forecast enhanced rain should help reduce or eliminate rainfall deficits and replenish soil moisture across the region. While moderate to locally heavy rain is expected over the interior of Guatemala and Honduras, light and likely to be below-average rain is forecast along the Atlantic Basin of Central America. Farther south, heavy rain is expected over the Southern Caribbean.


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#517245 - 09/01/16 05:01 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 1 – 7, 2016

Increased rain expected along the Pacific Basin of Central America during the next week.

During late August, heavy downpours were observed over localized areas of Central America, while light to locally moderate rain was registered elsewhere. Abundant rain fell over the Pacific Region of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, central and southern Honduras, central Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. In Honduras, reports have indicated that heavy rain over the recent period triggered flooding and house damages over Tegucigalpa, Choluteca, Catacamas, and areas of the Danli municipality. Despite this past week’s enhanced rain, thirty-day negative rainfall anomalies have persisted over east-central Honduras, central Nicaragua, and northwestern Costa Rica. Since late May, the Primera, May-August, rainfall season has performed poorly over some local areas of Central America, including parts of western Guatemala, eastern and southern Honduras, north-central and western Nicaragua, and northwestern Costa Rica, where cumulative rain has accounted for only between 50-80 percent of the average. An analysis of recent Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies has also shown below-average conditions over localized areas of eastern Guatemala, central and southern Honduras, and western Guatemala. The return of good rain is needed to help eliminate moisture deficits and replenish soil moisture for the upcoming second rainfall season.

During the next week, heavy downpours are expected along the Pacific Basin of Central America, with abundant rain over much of Guatemala, El Salvador, western and southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. The forecast continuation of heavy rain could trigger new flooding and landslides or exacerbate conditions on the ground over already-saturated areas. Meanwhile, light to moderate and likely to be below-average rain is forecast across the interior of the Atlantic regions of eastern Nicaragua.


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#517396 - 09/07/16 02:20 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
Marty Offline
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 8 – 14, 2016

Strengthening moisture deficits observed over parts of El Salvador.

In late August and early September, a widespread distribution of moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations was received over much of Central America. According to satellite rainfall estimates, the highest weekly accumulations (>100mm) were registered over western Guatemala, with pockets of comparable amounts over southern Honduras, and the Gulf of Nicoya regions of Costa Rica. Since early August, changes in the Postrera rainfall performance have been observed. Increased and more frequent rainfall has been observed over central portions of Guatemala and central Honduras, which has helped to alleviate residual dryness and moisture deficits resulting from the suppressed rains during the Primera season. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout southern and eastern parts of El Salvador. Although satellite rainfall estimates have depicted low and unseasonably erratic rains throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, average to above-average seasonal precipitation is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, with the potential for suppressed rainfall totals over portions of central and northern Guatemala. This forecast is expected to help mitigate both short-term and seasonal moisture deficits over El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. While models do show the passages of easterly wave disturbances in the Atlantic, no tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517517 - 09/14/16 09:59 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
Marty Offline
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 15 – 21, 2016

Heavy rainfall forecast throughout many coastal departments along the Pacific

During early September, increased rainfall accumulations were received throughout many coastal departments along the Pacific and Atlantic basins, with reduced rainfall totals observed for many interior departments, and throughout much of Guatemala. Over the past 30 days, there are several areas within Central America that have experienced both positive and negative precipitation trends and anomalies. Following a period of poor rainfall throughout parts of El Salvador and Nicaragua, increased rains during the last week has helped to alleviate dryness and moisture deficits. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout Guatemala. Although satellite rainfall estimates have depicted low and unseasonably erratic rains throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, enhanced seasonal precipitation is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, with weekly accumulations possibly exceeding twice the normal climatological amount for mid-September over many parts of Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Across the Atlantic basin, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517718 - 09/21/16 12:38 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
Marty Offline
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 22 – 28, 2016

Following a brief period of suppressed rainfall, Guatemala registers heavy precipitation during the last week.

During the middle of September, heavy and widespread weekly rainfall accumulations were received throughout much of Guatemala, with the highest totals exceeding 200mm in the northwestern portion of the country. Elsewhere, widespread but more moderate rainfall amounts were received across many parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, with another round of heavy rainfall (100-150mm) observed over the many departments in the Gulf of Fonseca. Over the past 30 days, there continues to be several areas within Central America that have experienced both positive and negative precipitation trends and anomalies. Several areas in southern Honduras and El Salvador are now experiencing well above- average rainfall following a period in August where rainfall was unusually poor. In western Guatemala, much improved rains during the last week have significantly helped to mitigate anomalous dryness in the region, and are now near-average since the middle of August. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout eastern Guatemala and southwestern Honduras, where both low weekly totals and a low number of rain days have persisted. Although satellite rainfall estimates depicted below-average rainfall throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, the continuation of enhanced rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, and into interior Guatemala weekly accumulations possibly exceeding 150mm in the region. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517889 - 09/28/16 11:05 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 29 – October 5, 2016

Heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and displaced populations in Guatemala and Honduras.

During the last week, locally heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and thousands of displaced people throughout several departments of Guatemala. In addition, increased rains have also led to flooding along the Ulua River in western Honduras affecting the Yoro, Cortes and Atlantida departments of the country. According to satellite rainfall estimates, large rainfall accumulations (>100mm) were also registered over northern and southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca region, and northern Costa Rica. Since late August, the performance of seasonal rainfall has generally favorable and much improved following a period of suppressed rainfall early in the Postrera season for several areas. The frequency of seasonal rainfall has also been average to above-average since late August, as very few areas have experienced prolonged dry spells to impede the development of crops. During the next week, the potential for locally torrential rainfall is forecast along many Pacific departments of Central America, as well as, over interior parts of Guatemala. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. Reduced seasonal rainfall is expected over many parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The development of tropical cyclone Matthew is expected to traverse the southern Caribbean; however, models suggest no impact of the storm over Central America.

During the next week, the continuation of enhanced rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, and into interior Guatemala weekly accumulations possibly exceeding 150mm in the region. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#518040 - 10/05/16 11:31 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 54,014
Marty Offline
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 06 – October 12, 2016

Broad suppression of rain was observed over the entire region this past week.

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, rains were light and scattered across the most of the region. Western/central Nicaragua, especially, saw little precipitation. TRMM estimates indicate that the greatest rain totals (>100mm) fell over parts of southern Honduras and El Salvador. Moderate rains were also observed around the Gulf of Belize, southern Guatemala, and in Costa Rica and Panama. The overall pattern was that of suppressed rainfall for the majority of the Central American region. Significant negative anomalies were prevalent for the week. Over the course of the past month, the ‘Postrera’ season has generally been a little dryer than normal, with scattered pockets of more wet conditions. The driest area as indicated by observed rainfall and soil moisture is central Nicaragua and is the place to keep a closer eye on. The situation is helped by a frequent distribution of rain events across the region. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are still mostly favorable.

Rain is forecasted to be slightly below average for northern and eastern portions of Central America. Above-average rain is forecasted to the south and west. The greatest amounts of rain (>150mm) will likely be found in Pacific facing department of Nicaragua and to the south in Costa Rica and Panama. Predominately light rain for areas of central Guatemala and northern Honduras, might be welcome after some recent flooding concerns in those areas.


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