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#518233 - 10/12/16 01:06 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 13 – October 19, 2016

Broad suppression of rain persisted for northern parts of Central America this past week.

Nicaragua saw an increase in rains last week while regions to the north remained dryer than normal.

Over the last 7 days, Nicaragua received a beneficial increase in rainfall. TRMM estimates indicate that locally more than 100mm fell over central and eastern parts of the country. The Gulf of Fonseca region of southern Honduras received similar amounts. Conversely, areas to the north received suppressed and below-average rainfall. Some parts of northern Honduras and central Guatemala received very little rain for the week. Other parts of Guatemala and El Salvador received greater, but still below-average, rainfall. The ‘Postrera’ season has generally been dryer than normal, with only some local pockets of more wet conditions. Rainfall anomalies since the beginning of September indicate many areas with negative anomalies exceeding 100mm, especially in Guatemala and Nicaragua. The pattern has been erratic though, and heavier rains have fallen over different parts of the region each week. Some parts of the region that are doing well over the period include southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador, and extreme southeastern Nicaragua. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are mostly favorable or neutral. There is some disagreement between products and any pockets of poorer index values are isolated.

During the upcoming outlook period widespread rain is forecasted. Mixed conditions are possible with some below-average rain totals interspersed amongst heavier rainfall. The best chance of above average rain is for western parts of Nicaragua and northern parts of Honduras. The week’s pattern is unlikely to greatly improve any moisture deficits but should prevent any increase in deficits.

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#518404 - 10/19/16 10:04 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 20 – October 26, 2016

Moisture deficits increased for many areas of Central America; Areas of flooding possible this week.

Widespread heavy rainfall is forecasted for Nicaragua, Southern Honduras and El Salvador during the upcoming week.

A varied pattern over the last 7 days brought localized above-average precipitation to parts of the region, but continuing dryer-than-normal conditions across many other areas, especially in the interior. The greatest rainfall, as observed by TRMM, was located over southeastern Nicaragua and southern Guatemala where over 150mm fell. Other areas, including El Salvador and the Peten department of Guatemala, received well in excess of 100mm. Flooding was reported in Poptun, Peten department. The story was different for parts of central Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, which received light and well below normal rainfall. Many of the mountainous areas of south-central Guatemala exhibit deficits of 50-100mm for the week. The ‘Postrera’ season has generally been dryer than normal for the majority of Central America. The largest and most consistent deficits for the period are located in Guatemala. Negative anomalies of 100-200mm or more are widely observed, with consistent suppressed precipitation for the past 3 weeks. As some of these areas are sensitive due to a poor finish to the ‘Primera’ season, the placing of abnormal dryness may be necessary shortly, without improvement. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are mostly favorable or neutral. Expected degradation due to building moisture deficits has yet to be observed.

During the upcoming outlook period, rains are forecasted to be heavy and above normal across Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca region. Totals greater than 100mm are expected to be ubiquitous across the country with amounts well above 200mm possible, especially in western departments. Similar conditions should stretch southward through Costa Rica and panama. Farther north, central Guatemala and Honduras should see near-average rainfall. Again though, the lowest totals will likely be in some of the areas that are already the driest.

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#518680 - 11/02/16 11:29 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November 3 – 9, 2016

Suppressed rain observed over the interior of Central America during the past week.

Poor second season rainfall performance observed over many areas of Central America.

An inconsistent rainfall distribution since the beginning of August has resulted in moderate to large seasonal deficits across Central America. While some areas received average to below-average rain during August and September, many regions accumulated well below-average rain during October. An analysis of the cumulative rain since August to date indicates widespread, negative anomalies ranging between 50-300 mm over central Guatemala, much of Honduras, southern Nicaragua, and central Costa Rica. As rain is expected to gradually subside during November, the poor performance of the Postrera, August-November, season could negatively impact and potentially reduce crop yields over many local areas. From October 25-31, suppressed rain was observed throughout much of Central America, except the Pacific Region of southern Guatemala, northwestern Nicaragua, and along the Atlantic coastlines, where moderate to heavy rain was received. Although recent vegetation health indices have indicated overall marginal to favorable conditions over Central America, worsening ground conditions have been registered over localized areas of Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.

For next week, seasonal weather, with light to locally moderate rain is forecast across Central America. The forecast, limited rain is likely to maintain thirty-day rainfall deficits and sustain abnormal dryness across the dry portions of Central America. In contrast, moderate to heavy showers are expected along the Gulf of Honduras, southwestern Guatemala, El Salvador, the Pacific Basin of Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean.


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#518856 - 11/10/16 04:52 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November 10 – 26, 2016

Seasonable weather pattern forecast to continue.

Heavy rain observed along the Gulf of Honduras and Pacific Rim of Central America during the past week.

During early November, suppressed rain continued throughout the interior of northern Central America, in particular, central Guatemala and northwestern Honduras. In contrast, abundant rain fell along the Gulf of Honduras, southwestern Pacific region of Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, and the Pacific Rim of the Southern Caribbean. Moderate to locally heavy rain was observed across the Atlantic regions of Nicaragua. The continued limited rain over the past few weeks has contributed to the persistence of rainfall deficits across the dry portions of Guatemala and Honduras over the past thirty days. An analysis of the number of rain day anomaly since early October to date has also indicated less frequent rain throughout central Guatemala and northern Honduras. As rain is climatologically expected to subside during this time of the year, continued poor rain could potentially further deteriorate ground conditions and reduce crop yields over many local areas. Vegetation health indices from crop performance model have indicated mediocre conditions over localized areas of western Guatemala and northern Honduras.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts suggest a continuation of light rain throughout the interior of Central America, while moderate to heavy rain is possible over parts of western and northern Guatemala and along both the Atlantic and Pacific coastlines. The forecast light rain is likely to maintain or worsen conditions on the ground over the dry portions of the region. Farther south, abundant rain is forecast over Costa Rica and Panama.


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#519059 - 11/16/16 07:04 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November November 17 – 23, 2016

A slight increase in rain forecast over the dry portions of Central America during the next period.

Enhanced rain forecast along the Atlantic basin and portions of northern Central America.

From November 8-14, suppressed rain prevailed over Central America. The heaviest (> 50 mm) rain fell in southwestern Guatemala, central El Salvador, the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua and southern Caribbean. Since mid-August to date, rain has been poorly-distributed throughout western and central Guatemala to western and central Honduras. The largest ninety-day rainfall deficits have been observed over portions of central Guatemala and north-central Honduras, where accumulated rain have accounted for only between 25-50 percent of the average. Although rain is expected to gradually subside across the interior of Central America during this time of the year, rain has diminished significantly over the dry portions of the region since late September. An analysis of vegetation conditions from remote sensing techniques has indicated degrading conditions in western and central Guatemala and western Honduras as a response to the lack of rain. Conditions could worsen and potentially impact and reduce the Postrera, August-November, crop yields if suppressed rain continues.

During the next outlook period, a slight increase in rainfall is expected over the inland of Central America. Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected over western and central Guatemala, the northern-tier of Honduras, and Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua. The forecast enhanced rain could help reduce or eliminate moisture deficits and possibly alleviate dryness over some areas. Farther south, torrential rain is forecast over the Southern Caribbean, which may also trigger localized flooding.


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#519232 - 11/24/16 12:06 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November November 24 – 30, 2016

Tropical Storm Otto over the southwestern Caribbean Sea could impact portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica during the next outlook period.

Heavy downpours expected along the Atlantic coasts and southern parts of Central America.

During the past week, suppressed rain prevailed over much of Central America. However, moderate to heavy rain was received along the Atlantic coasts of eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and over the Southern Caribbean. In Costa Rica and Panama, this past week’s torrential rain triggered flooding, resulting in many affected people over several areas, according to media reports. An analysis of cumulative rain since late October to date has indicated dryness, with moderate to large rain deficits over central Guatemala, much of Honduras, central Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. In contrast, wetness, with small to moderate surpluses have been observed over parts of southwestern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua, the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. As the second season rain is coming to an end, rain is expected to subside throughout much of Central America. This may worsen conditions on the ground over areas, already affected by dryness. Conversely, the continuation of abundant rain could also exacerbate conditions over saturated areas such as local parts of the Southern Caribbean.

During the next outlook period, Tropical Storm Otto, located to the east southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, is expected to intensify into hurricane force and move west northwestward, potentially making landfall and impacting southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This, therefore, increases risks for flooding, landslides, an infrastructure damages over many local areas of the region. Abundant rain is expected across northern Honduras and along the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, while limited, with little to light rain is forecast elsewhere. Farther south, torrential rain is forecast to continue over Costa Rica and Panama and maintains elevated risks for flooding and mudslides over many areas of the region.


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#519410 - 11/30/16 10:22 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November December 1 – 7, 2016

Hurricane Otto led to flooding and many affected people over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Light to locally moderate rain forecast during the next period.

From November 22-28, the passage of Hurricane Otto brought heavy downpours, with rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This caused flooding, infrastructure damages, and many affected people over many areas of southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica, according to media reports. Moderate to heavy rain was also observed in eastern Honduras and the Southern Caribbean, while suppressed rain was recorded throughout Guatemala, El Salvador, the western two-thirds of Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua. Although the enhanced rain, associated with the passage of Hurricane Otto, helped eliminate rainfall deficits over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, negative rainfall anomalies have persisted throughout parts of western and eastern Guatemala, much of Honduras, and north-central Nicaragua over the past thirty days. Moreover, since late August to date, northern Central America, including Guatemala and Honduras, have accumulated only between 50-80 percent of their average. Some areas have received even less than 50 percent of their average rain. As the Postrera, August- November season, is coming to an end, the chance for recovery in rainfall is unlikely.

During the next outlook period, light rain is expected throughout much of the interior of Central America. This should help reduce positive rainfall anomalies and partially relieve wetness over areas, affected by the passage of Hurricane Otto during the past week. In contrast, moderate showers are possible over localized areas of Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, and along the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Farther south, moderate to heavy rain is forecast to continue over Costa Rica and Panama.


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#519610 - 12/08/16 07:56 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
Marty Offline
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November December 8 – 14, 2016

Decreased rainfall observed during early December.

Increased rainfall amounts expected over northern Guatemala.

Compared to the previous week with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Otto, a large decrease in precipitation was observed throughout much of Central America during early December. The highest weekly accumulations (>50mm) were received over several costal departments of Costa Rica Nicaragua, and Panama, with more moderate totals (10-25mm) throughout the northern coastal departments of Honduras. Little to no rainfall was received for many interior departments of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Since early November, many areas in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Belize have experienced below-average rains leading to late season moisture deficits. The anomalous dryness across central and eastern Guatemala and western Honduras has been associated with a longer-term trend of low and erratic seasonal rainfall, as several areas have received less than 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulations since early September. The suppressed Postrera rains in the region are likely to lead to unfavorable ground conditions and may negatively impact cropping activities. With precipitation normally decreasing in December, recovery of moisture deficits appears unlikely.

During the next outlook period, precipitation models suggest an increase in rainfall throughout much of Central America, with the potential for heavy rainfall amounts (>75mm) over northern Guatemala. Seasonable rainfall amounts are expected throughout the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama during the next seven days.


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#520244 - 12/21/16 11:53 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,004
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