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#514135 - 06/02/16 04:36 AM Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA  
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TUESDAY MAY 31 – JUNE 7, 2016

The 2016 Rainy Season will definitely not begin on the first day of June this year. Another week of punishing hot and dry weather will persist before we get some significant and persistent rainfall. The years 2008 and 2003 are two of the analogous years to 2016. So we all have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best this hurricane season. Measured (YSI) and remotely observed SST (satellite sensors) in the western Caribbean are around 30 degrees Celsius or 86 Fahrenheit; a warm pool in the western Caribbean.

Model projections and current atmospheric conditions over the Caribbean and northern Central America indicate that the summer (rainy season) circulation pattern are now in place, with a major Upper Level trough over the central and eastern Caribbean, a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean heading towards Nicaragua, and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bulging northward over Central America this morning (See Fig. 1 Surface weather map). However, no major system is expected to drift over the NW Caribbean and Belize during the next three to five days to generate a persistent rainfall event, marking the onset of the 2016 Rain Season. Hence, the 2016 Rainy Season will be delayed by almost five to seven days. Significant and persistent rainfall will gradually begin by next Monday and continue through Thursday of next week.


The 2016 intense Dry Season will persist at least for the next seven (days). Scattered outbreaks of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are likely to develop over the South and West on Thursday and Friday, increasing on Saturday then decreasing on Sunday and Monday. An upsurge in showers and thunderstorms is forecast for next Tuesday through Thursday, with daily accumulations in excess of an inch particularly in the South, West and some areas of the coastal zone. This activity will be associated with low pressure disturbance in the NW Caribbean and northern Central America, pulling in moisture from the Pacific. This will likely mark the onset of the 2016 Rainy Season over Belize.

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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 1 - 8, 2016

After another week of below-average rainfall, moisture deficits are increasing for many parts of the region.

A pattern of suppressed rainfall was again in place across the region. Observed weekly rainfall according to TRMM was widely 25-100mm below average. Heavy precipitation was confined to the Gulf of Fonseca region, where around 100mm fell. Local parts of southwestern Guatemala received similar amounts. Outside of these areas, rains were generally light. Many parts of northern Guatemala and northern Honduras received nearly no rainfall. With another poor week of rainfall registered, longer-term rainfall deficits continue to deepen and expand over the region. Patchy 30-day deficits of greater than 100mm are scattered throughout the Central American countries. The picture is similarly poor dating back to the beginning of April. In some parts of central Guatemala and northern Honduras less than 25% of normal precipitation has been received. As a result, satellite estimation vegetation indices have indicated degraded ground conditions. These are most apparent in central and northern Guatemala as well as central Honduras. It is expected that an expanding area of cropping activities are likely to be negatively affected by these conditions.

Forecast models indicate that Heavy above-average rains are likely in many central and western portions of the region during the outlook period. The most significant rainfall is likely to be in El Salvador and southern Guatemala where upwards of 300mm could fall. Many other areas of western Nicaragua, southern/central Honduras, El Salvador, and southern Guatemala can expect more than 100mm of rain. Parts of eastern Nicaragua are more likely to receive below-average rain totals closer to 25mm. This pattern should help to alleviate some of the abnormal dryness.



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#514276 - 06/09/16 03:41 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 9 - 15, 2016

The first growing season expected to begin during the next week.

Insufficient and infrequent rainfall has been observed over Central America since the beginning of April. The lack of rain has affected the northern portions of the region, including the Jalapa, Zacapa, El Progreso, Chiquimula, Izabal, and Peten departments of eastern and northern Guatemala, western and northern Honduras, and El Salvador. Across these regions, accumulated rain over the past two months has accounted less than 50 percent of the average, indicating large moisture deficits that have already negatively impacted cropping activities. During the past week, an increase in rainfall was observed mostly over southern Central America, where downpours were recorded. Heavy rain also caused localized flooding in southern Guatemala. In contrast, light and below-average rain continued over the northern portions as Guatemala, western El Salvador, and Honduras. This has further increased thirty-day rainfall deficits over the dry portions of the region. If the May-August rainfall season does not start over the upcoming weeks, it may adversely impact crops again after drought-stricken, below-average yields during the previous years.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts indicate a significant increase in rainfall across Central America. This may announce the onset of the first growing season. Abundant rain is expected over Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, and the Southern Caribbean. Moderate to heavy and average to below-average rain is expected, however, throughout the central parts and Atlantic Basin of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The forecast uptake in rain should help alleviate dryness over many areas, but it also may trigger localized flooding over some areas.


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#514605 - 06/16/16 03:46 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 16 - 22, 2016

Wet weather is forecast to continue during the next seven days.

The recent increase in rainfall has been beneficial to the Primera, May-August season, in Central America. During the past seven days, widespread, heavy and above-average rain was observed across most areas, with the heaviest rain in northern Guatemala, Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, Gulf of Fonseca, and eastern Nicaragua. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rain was recorded elsewhere. Although the stark increase in rainfall over the past two weeks has helped to eliminate thirty-day moisture deficits over many local areas of northern Central America, moderate, negative rainfall anomalies have persisted over the western, northern, and eastern parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. In Guatemala, poor rain during April and May has already led to wilted crops over some areas. Recent vegetation health indices have indicated mostly marginal to above-average conditions over Central America.

For next week, wet weather patterns are expected to continue over Central America, with heavy rain over southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, Gulf of Fonseca, and the Southern Caribbean. Though the forecast, abundant rain should help eliminate moisture deficits over many areas, excess moisture could also exacerbate conditions over already-saturated and flood prone areas. This includes this past week’s flood-stricken areas of the Sumpango, Sacatepéquez department of Guatemala, and San Miguel Arcangel, Tegucigalpa of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to moderate rain is forecast.


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#515388 - 06/23/16 05:02 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 23 - 29, 2016

Seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall forecast during the next week.

During the past week, heavy rainfall was observed much of Guatemala, western El Salvador, and the eastern slopes of Honduras and Nicaragua. In Guatemala, flooding and affected people have been reported over many local areas of the country, including the Escuintla, Zacapa, and Quetzaltenango departments, following abundant rain during the past two weeks. Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall fell across the interior of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Despite the recent onset of seasonal rainfall, the northern two-thirds of Guatemala, much of Honduras, central El Salvador, and central Nicaragua have accumulated thirty-day rainfall deficits between 50-200 mm. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A favorable distribution of seasonal rainfall is needed to mitigate dryness and ensure proper development of crops over many local areas.

During the next week, seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall is forecast over Central America, with heavy rain across southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, Gulf of Honduras, and Atlantic coastlines of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected throughout the inland of region. The forecast rainfall may help reduce or eliminate moisture deficits over some areas, though the consistent rainfall could also trigger flooding or exacerbate conditions over previously-flooded and saturated areas.


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#515671 - 06/30/16 04:51 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 30 – July 6, 2016

Little relief to dryness expected over Guatemala and Honduras.

In the last seven days, seasonal rains continued throughout Central America, however below-average totals were again registered across many anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>100mm) were received throughout many coastal areas in the Yucatan peninsula, southern Guatemala, and along the Atlantic coastline of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Lesser, but well distributed totals were received over many interior departments of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness continues to strengthen across many central regions of Guatemala and Honduras. While many of these areas have experienced an increased number of days of rain during this span, several weeks of below-average totals have led to many areas experiencing between 50 to 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulation over the past three months. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A failure of Primera rains by mid-summer would mark the 3rd consecutively failed season of Guatemala and Honduras.

During the next week, little improvement to the anomalous dryness is expected as precipitation forecasts suggest largely suppressed rainfall throughout the Atlantic basin of Central America. Below-average precipitation totals over portions of northern Guatemala and central Honduras are likely to strengthen seasonal dryness.


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#515810 - 07/07/16 03:34 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America July 7 - 13, 2016

Slight relief to dryness possible over some parts of Guatemala and Honduras.

In the last seven days, seasonal rains continued throughout Central America, however below-average totals remained prevalent across many anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>300mm) were received throughout some areas along the Atlantic coastline of Nicaragua. Other regions receiving high rainfall totals include the Gulf of Honduras region, Pacific facing departments of Guatemala and throughout El Salvador. Other areas received lighter, below normal, rainfall. These include western Nicaragua, central Honduras, and the higher elevations of Guatemala. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness continues to remain entrenched across many central regions of Guatemala and Honduras. Though many of these areas have experienced a normal number of days of rain during this span, several weeks of below-average totals have led to many areas experiencing between 50 to 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulation over the past three months. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A failure of Primera rains by mid-summer would mark the 3rd consecutively failed season of Guatemala and Honduras.

During the next week, marginal improvement to the anomalous dryness is possible as precipitation forecasts suggest increased rainfall for areas of central Guatemala and western Honduras. Below-average precipitation totals over portions of northern Guatemala and central Honduras are likely to strengthen seasonal dryness. Wetter-than-average conditions should continue for parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua, with locally torrential rains.


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#515827 - 07/08/16 03:09 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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Weekly AgroMet Update and Outlook JULY 7 – FRIDAY JULY 15, 2016

An active tropical wave with strong outflow aloft will continue westward across northern Central America and southern Mexico tonight and on Friday, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over southern and western Belize. The seasonally, unsettled conditions will persist through the weekend and most of next week in association of a low level jet in the easterly flow over the western Caribbean and Central America and good outflow support in the upper atmosphere. A second tropical wave or perturbation in the easterlies is expected to cross Belize by Monday, generating more showery weather. Figure 1 below is the surface weather map for Thursday evening, showing the first tropical wave approaching Belize and Guatemala. A third tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, and should reach Belize in the next five days.


Surface Weather map valid for 8:42 p.m. Thursday, July 7, 2016 showing Tropical Wave moving through northern Central America tonight and Friday morning.

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#515966 - 07/14/16 03:31 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America July 14 – July 20, 2016

Suppressed rains continued over some anomalously dry areas of Central America.

In the last seven days, rains have been seasonably distributed. However, totals remained below average for several already anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>300mm) were received over a large area of eastern Nicaragua. Similarly large amounts of rain were observed in the Gulf of Belize region. Heavy rains (100-200mm) were also observed in southern Guatemala and western El Salvador. Other areas received lighter and below-normal rainfall, notably in central Honduras and through western Nicaragua. The Gulf of Fonseca region observed nearly no rainfall. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness remains entrenched across many central parts of Guatemala and Honduras. Roughly two weeks of above-normal rain has removed existing long-term deficits around the Gulf of Belize. Dryness in western and central Nicaragua is more recent. There, rainfall deficits are becoming more widespread and vegetation health indices indicate that the meteorological situation is starting to have a negative impact on surface conditions.

During the upcoming period, rainfall is expected to be less extreme than last week in areas of eastern Nicaragua and central Guatemala. Despite the possibility of some locally heavy rain showers, rainfall is likely to be generally suppressed slightly below-average, especially in northern parts of the region. The pattern could strengthen seasonal dryness throughout Guatemala and northern Honduras. Areas along the east coast Of Nicaragua and areas just to the south of the Gulf of Belize are likely to receive the most rain this week.


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#516119 - 07/21/16 04:50 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America July 21 - 27, 2016

Poor rainfall performance across most of the region last week has exacerbated the abnormal dryness throughout the region.

Over the last 7 days, rainfall was below average for most areas of Central America. Many locales only received less than 25mm of rain for the week. These included many parts of central Guatemala, central Honduras, and western Nicaragua. For some, those totals equate to less than a quarter of what they would normally receive for the period. Areas that did receive heavier rain (>150-200mm according to TRMM) include southern Guatemala and southeastern Nicaragua. While this was abnormally wet for parts of southern Guatemala, It was still slightly less than average for Nicaragua. Repeated weeks of poor rainfall performance are enlarging longer-term moisture deficits, both in magnitude and in coverage. Many local areas are now observing less than 50% of average rainfall over the last 30 days. Both eastern Honduras and western Nicaragua exhibit rapidly developing deficits. While vegetation indices are a little slow to respond, they are exhibiting a negative trend, especially in Honduras and western Nicaragua. In addition, soil moisture is reported to be very low in many central departments of Guatemala.

Continued suppression of rain is likely during the upcoming outlook period. Similar to the past week, rainfall should be greatest in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. Still, most parts of the region will see near or below average precipitation. Should this forecast continue to verify, additional consecutive weeks of relatively dry weather will likely start to have greater negative impact on crops for many local areas. Upgrades in hazard level may start to become necessary.


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#516263 - 07/28/16 04:51 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America July 28 – August 3, 2016

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, areas of eastern Nicaragua, El Salvador, and parts of Guatemala saw above-average rainfall, while most other areas saw suppression of rainfall. The easternmost departments of Nicaragua observed 100-200mm of rain, and similar totals were also observed in parts of Guatemala and El Salvador. While moderate rains were observed in eastern Guatemala, they were still well below normal totals. Some of the driest parts of the region included western Nicaragua and central Honduras; less than 10mm of rain was observed locally. As a result of this and several preceding weeks of poor rainfall performance, monthly rainfall deficits are on the increase in western Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca region of Honduras. Less than 25% of normal rain has fallen in the driest areas of western Nicaragua and southern Honduras over the 30-day period. Vegetation indices look poorest through eastern Guatemala, western Honduras and the Gulf of Fonseca region but don’t yet reflect poor conditions for other dry regions. In addition, soil moisture is reported to be very low in many central departments of Guatemala.

Rain is forecasted to be above normal along most of the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. Heavier rain showers could bring well in excess of 100mm of rain locally. This pattern may result in well-needed relief from dryness for western Nicaragua. Conversely, suppressed below-normal rainfall is likely for northern Guatemala. Much of Honduras and eastern Nicaragua is likely to receive closer to normal rainfall.


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#516506 - 08/04/16 03:47 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 4 – 10, 2016

The passage of Tropical Storm EARL expected to partially mitigate dryness over Central America.

During late July, scattered moderate to heavy rainfall was observed along coastal areas of Central America, while suppressed rainfall prevailed throughout the interior of the region. This resulted in mostly below-average rainfall during the past week and contributed to the persistence of drier than average conditions over eastern and central Guatemala, Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua over the past thirty days. During July, these dry portions of Central America have received only between 25-80 percent of their average rainfall and have also experienced below-average number of rain days. As a response to the inconsistent rainfall over the past several weeks, crop damages and losses have already reported over many areas of the Dry Corridor, including portions of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. If a favorable distribution of rainfall does not return over the upcoming weeks, the ongoing dryness may further negatively impact agricultural activities and reduce crop yields over wide area of the region.

During the next week, the development of Tropical Storm EARL over the northwestern Caribbean is expected to bring heavy downpours along the Gulf of Honduras region. The forecast heavy rain could trigger flooding and landslides over the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern coastlines of Honduras, Belize, and northern Guatemala. Abundant rain is also forecast throughout the interior of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Gulf of Fonseca. This should help reduce or eliminate accumulated rainfall deficits and alleviate dryness over many local areas of the dry portions of Central America. Farther south, the Pacific Rim of the Southern Caribbean could receive heavy, while its Caribbean counterparts are expected to experience lighter rain.


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#516743 - 08/10/16 01:55 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 11 – 17, 2016

Tropical Storm “Earl” led to flooding in Belize, relief to dryness over neighboring areas in northern Central America

In the last seven days, the inception and passage of Tropical Storm “Earl” brought significantly heavy rainfall across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras region as it made landfall over the Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Analysis of satellite 7-day rainfall estimates show widespread heavy rainfall accumulations in excess of (>100mm) extending westward from Jamaica to the Campeche state of Mexico. The onset of torrential rainfall triggered localized flooding in parts of Belize, but helped bring some relief to many anomalously dry areas of northern Guatemala and northern Honduras. While the increased rainfall was beneficial for dryness in the north, many interior departments in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are still experiencing persistent dryness as rainfall deficits remain between 50-80 percent of normal since late July. The inconsistent rainfall over the past several weeks has already led to crop damages and losses over many areas. If a favorable distribution of rainfall does not return over the upcoming weeks, the ongoing dryness may further negatively impact agricultural activities and reduce crop yields over wide area of the region.

During the next week, moderate to heavy rainfall amounts are forecast many anomalously dry parts of Honduras, as well as throughout southern Guatemala. The enhanced rainfall is expected to help alleviate short-term and long-term moisture deficits in the Gulf of Fonseca region and throughout Honduras. Many Atlantic facing departments are forecast to receive average to below-average rainfall. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the outlook period.


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#516931 - 08/18/16 05:01 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 18 – 24, 2016

Average to below-average rainfall expected to continue over Central America during the next week.

From August 9-15, heavy rain fell over Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras. This has helped reduce thirty-day rainfall deficits over many local areas of the dry portions of the region. Farther south, torrential rain was observed over the Southern Caribbean. Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall was recorded over the interior of Honduras and western Nicaragua. Since mid-July to present, negative rainfall anomalies, with deficits exceeding 100 mm, have been observed over portions of southwestern and northeastern Guatemala, east-central Honduras, and much of Nicaragua. The number of rain days has been below-average, particularly over western Nicaragua over the past thirty days. Due to poor rainfall distribution over the past four weeks, recent vegetation indices have already indicated stressed crops over many local areas of Central America. Conditions on the ground may worsen and impact ongoing cropping activities over many local areas if a favorable rainfall distribution does not return within the upcoming weeks.

During the next week, model rainfall forecasts suggest a continuation of wet weather patterns over Guatemala, portions of Honduras, and El Salvador. The forecast average to above-average rain should help eliminate moisture deficits further over portions of Guatemala and Honduras. Enhanced rainfall is also expected along the Atlantic Basin of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, which should help reduce thirty-day negative rainfall anomalies over some localized areas. In contrast, light to locally moderate and below-average rain is forecast across the interior of central Honduras and central Nicaragua, which could sustain moisture deficits and dryness in the region.


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#517100 - 08/26/16 04:06 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America August 25 – 31, 2016

Reduced rain forecast along the Atlantic Basin of Central America during the next seven days.

During the past week, an increase in rainfall was observed over parts of Central America. Moderate to heavy rain fell over Guatemala, eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. The heaviest (> 100 mm) rain was received over the southwestern and northern portions of Guatemala, localized areas of eastern Honduras, southeastern Nicaragua, and the Pacific and Atlantic Basins of Costa Rica and Panama. In Guatemala, torrential rain caused the overflowing of the Cotoxa River, affecting many people in the San Luis area of the Peten department. Despite this past week’s average to above-average rain over some areas, moisture deficits have persisted over localized areas of Honduras and most parts of central Nicaragua over the past thirty days. The continuation of insufficient and poorly-distributed rain could negatively affect ongoing crops, associated with the Primera, May-August, and land preparation and planting for the Postrera, August-November rainfall seasons over some local areas. An analysis of recent vegetation indices has indicated a deterioration of ground conditions over localized areas of east-central Honduras, western and central Nicaragua. Consistent rain is needed to eliminate accumulated moisture deficits and mitigate dryness over the dry portions of Central America.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts indicate the return of heavy downpours along the Gulf of Fonseca and western portions of Nicaragua. The forecast enhanced rain should help reduce or eliminate rainfall deficits and replenish soil moisture across the region. While moderate to locally heavy rain is expected over the interior of Guatemala and Honduras, light and likely to be below-average rain is forecast along the Atlantic Basin of Central America. Farther south, heavy rain is expected over the Southern Caribbean.


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#517245 - 09/01/16 05:01 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 1 – 7, 2016

Increased rain expected along the Pacific Basin of Central America during the next week.

During late August, heavy downpours were observed over localized areas of Central America, while light to locally moderate rain was registered elsewhere. Abundant rain fell over the Pacific Region of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, central and southern Honduras, central Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. In Honduras, reports have indicated that heavy rain over the recent period triggered flooding and house damages over Tegucigalpa, Choluteca, Catacamas, and areas of the Danli municipality. Despite this past week’s enhanced rain, thirty-day negative rainfall anomalies have persisted over east-central Honduras, central Nicaragua, and northwestern Costa Rica. Since late May, the Primera, May-August, rainfall season has performed poorly over some local areas of Central America, including parts of western Guatemala, eastern and southern Honduras, north-central and western Nicaragua, and northwestern Costa Rica, where cumulative rain has accounted for only between 50-80 percent of the average. An analysis of recent Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies has also shown below-average conditions over localized areas of eastern Guatemala, central and southern Honduras, and western Guatemala. The return of good rain is needed to help eliminate moisture deficits and replenish soil moisture for the upcoming second rainfall season.

During the next week, heavy downpours are expected along the Pacific Basin of Central America, with abundant rain over much of Guatemala, El Salvador, western and southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. The forecast continuation of heavy rain could trigger new flooding and landslides or exacerbate conditions on the ground over already-saturated areas. Meanwhile, light to moderate and likely to be below-average rain is forecast across the interior of the Atlantic regions of eastern Nicaragua.


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#517396 - 09/07/16 02:20 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 8 – 14, 2016

Strengthening moisture deficits observed over parts of El Salvador.

In late August and early September, a widespread distribution of moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations was received over much of Central America. According to satellite rainfall estimates, the highest weekly accumulations (>100mm) were registered over western Guatemala, with pockets of comparable amounts over southern Honduras, and the Gulf of Nicoya regions of Costa Rica. Since early August, changes in the Postrera rainfall performance have been observed. Increased and more frequent rainfall has been observed over central portions of Guatemala and central Honduras, which has helped to alleviate residual dryness and moisture deficits resulting from the suppressed rains during the Primera season. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout southern and eastern parts of El Salvador. Although satellite rainfall estimates have depicted low and unseasonably erratic rains throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, average to above-average seasonal precipitation is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, with the potential for suppressed rainfall totals over portions of central and northern Guatemala. This forecast is expected to help mitigate both short-term and seasonal moisture deficits over El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. While models do show the passages of easterly wave disturbances in the Atlantic, no tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517517 - 09/14/16 09:59 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 15 – 21, 2016

Heavy rainfall forecast throughout many coastal departments along the Pacific

During early September, increased rainfall accumulations were received throughout many coastal departments along the Pacific and Atlantic basins, with reduced rainfall totals observed for many interior departments, and throughout much of Guatemala. Over the past 30 days, there are several areas within Central America that have experienced both positive and negative precipitation trends and anomalies. Following a period of poor rainfall throughout parts of El Salvador and Nicaragua, increased rains during the last week has helped to alleviate dryness and moisture deficits. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout Guatemala. Although satellite rainfall estimates have depicted low and unseasonably erratic rains throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, enhanced seasonal precipitation is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, with weekly accumulations possibly exceeding twice the normal climatological amount for mid-September over many parts of Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Across the Atlantic basin, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517718 - 09/21/16 12:38 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 22 – 28, 2016

Following a brief period of suppressed rainfall, Guatemala registers heavy precipitation during the last week.

During the middle of September, heavy and widespread weekly rainfall accumulations were received throughout much of Guatemala, with the highest totals exceeding 200mm in the northwestern portion of the country. Elsewhere, widespread but more moderate rainfall amounts were received across many parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, with another round of heavy rainfall (100-150mm) observed over the many departments in the Gulf of Fonseca. Over the past 30 days, there continues to be several areas within Central America that have experienced both positive and negative precipitation trends and anomalies. Several areas in southern Honduras and El Salvador are now experiencing well above- average rainfall following a period in August where rainfall was unusually poor. In western Guatemala, much improved rains during the last week have significantly helped to mitigate anomalous dryness in the region, and are now near-average since the middle of August. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout eastern Guatemala and southwestern Honduras, where both low weekly totals and a low number of rain days have persisted. Although satellite rainfall estimates depicted below-average rainfall throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, the continuation of enhanced rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, and into interior Guatemala weekly accumulations possibly exceeding 150mm in the region. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#517889 - 09/28/16 11:05 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America September 29 – October 5, 2016

Heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and displaced populations in Guatemala and Honduras.

During the last week, locally heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and thousands of displaced people throughout several departments of Guatemala. In addition, increased rains have also led to flooding along the Ulua River in western Honduras affecting the Yoro, Cortes and Atlantida departments of the country. According to satellite rainfall estimates, large rainfall accumulations (>100mm) were also registered over northern and southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca region, and northern Costa Rica. Since late August, the performance of seasonal rainfall has generally favorable and much improved following a period of suppressed rainfall early in the Postrera season for several areas. The frequency of seasonal rainfall has also been average to above-average since late August, as very few areas have experienced prolonged dry spells to impede the development of crops. During the next week, the potential for locally torrential rainfall is forecast along many Pacific departments of Central America, as well as, over interior parts of Guatemala. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. Reduced seasonal rainfall is expected over many parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The development of tropical cyclone Matthew is expected to traverse the southern Caribbean; however, models suggest no impact of the storm over Central America.

During the next week, the continuation of enhanced rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, and into interior Guatemala weekly accumulations possibly exceeding 150mm in the region. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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#518040 - 10/05/16 11:31 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 06 – October 12, 2016

Broad suppression of rain was observed over the entire region this past week.

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, rains were light and scattered across the most of the region. Western/central Nicaragua, especially, saw little precipitation. TRMM estimates indicate that the greatest rain totals (>100mm) fell over parts of southern Honduras and El Salvador. Moderate rains were also observed around the Gulf of Belize, southern Guatemala, and in Costa Rica and Panama. The overall pattern was that of suppressed rainfall for the majority of the Central American region. Significant negative anomalies were prevalent for the week. Over the course of the past month, the ‘Postrera’ season has generally been a little dryer than normal, with scattered pockets of more wet conditions. The driest area as indicated by observed rainfall and soil moisture is central Nicaragua and is the place to keep a closer eye on. The situation is helped by a frequent distribution of rain events across the region. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are still mostly favorable.

Rain is forecasted to be slightly below average for northern and eastern portions of Central America. Above-average rain is forecasted to the south and west. The greatest amounts of rain (>150mm) will likely be found in Pacific facing department of Nicaragua and to the south in Costa Rica and Panama. Predominately light rain for areas of central Guatemala and northern Honduras, might be welcome after some recent flooding concerns in those areas.


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#518233 - 10/12/16 01:06 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 13 – October 19, 2016

Broad suppression of rain persisted for northern parts of Central America this past week.

Nicaragua saw an increase in rains last week while regions to the north remained dryer than normal.

Over the last 7 days, Nicaragua received a beneficial increase in rainfall. TRMM estimates indicate that locally more than 100mm fell over central and eastern parts of the country. The Gulf of Fonseca region of southern Honduras received similar amounts. Conversely, areas to the north received suppressed and below-average rainfall. Some parts of northern Honduras and central Guatemala received very little rain for the week. Other parts of Guatemala and El Salvador received greater, but still below-average, rainfall. The ‘Postrera’ season has generally been dryer than normal, with only some local pockets of more wet conditions. Rainfall anomalies since the beginning of September indicate many areas with negative anomalies exceeding 100mm, especially in Guatemala and Nicaragua. The pattern has been erratic though, and heavier rains have fallen over different parts of the region each week. Some parts of the region that are doing well over the period include southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador, and extreme southeastern Nicaragua. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are mostly favorable or neutral. There is some disagreement between products and any pockets of poorer index values are isolated.

During the upcoming outlook period widespread rain is forecasted. Mixed conditions are possible with some below-average rain totals interspersed amongst heavier rainfall. The best chance of above average rain is for western parts of Nicaragua and northern parts of Honduras. The week’s pattern is unlikely to greatly improve any moisture deficits but should prevent any increase in deficits.

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#518404 - 10/19/16 10:04 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America October 20 – October 26, 2016

Moisture deficits increased for many areas of Central America; Areas of flooding possible this week.

Widespread heavy rainfall is forecasted for Nicaragua, Southern Honduras and El Salvador during the upcoming week.

A varied pattern over the last 7 days brought localized above-average precipitation to parts of the region, but continuing dryer-than-normal conditions across many other areas, especially in the interior. The greatest rainfall, as observed by TRMM, was located over southeastern Nicaragua and southern Guatemala where over 150mm fell. Other areas, including El Salvador and the Peten department of Guatemala, received well in excess of 100mm. Flooding was reported in Poptun, Peten department. The story was different for parts of central Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, which received light and well below normal rainfall. Many of the mountainous areas of south-central Guatemala exhibit deficits of 50-100mm for the week. The ‘Postrera’ season has generally been dryer than normal for the majority of Central America. The largest and most consistent deficits for the period are located in Guatemala. Negative anomalies of 100-200mm or more are widely observed, with consistent suppressed precipitation for the past 3 weeks. As some of these areas are sensitive due to a poor finish to the ‘Primera’ season, the placing of abnormal dryness may be necessary shortly, without improvement. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are mostly favorable or neutral. Expected degradation due to building moisture deficits has yet to be observed.

During the upcoming outlook period, rains are forecasted to be heavy and above normal across Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca region. Totals greater than 100mm are expected to be ubiquitous across the country with amounts well above 200mm possible, especially in western departments. Similar conditions should stretch southward through Costa Rica and panama. Farther north, central Guatemala and Honduras should see near-average rainfall. Again though, the lowest totals will likely be in some of the areas that are already the driest.

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#518680 - 11/02/16 11:29 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November 3 – 9, 2016

Suppressed rain observed over the interior of Central America during the past week.

Poor second season rainfall performance observed over many areas of Central America.

An inconsistent rainfall distribution since the beginning of August has resulted in moderate to large seasonal deficits across Central America. While some areas received average to below-average rain during August and September, many regions accumulated well below-average rain during October. An analysis of the cumulative rain since August to date indicates widespread, negative anomalies ranging between 50-300 mm over central Guatemala, much of Honduras, southern Nicaragua, and central Costa Rica. As rain is expected to gradually subside during November, the poor performance of the Postrera, August-November, season could negatively impact and potentially reduce crop yields over many local areas. From October 25-31, suppressed rain was observed throughout much of Central America, except the Pacific Region of southern Guatemala, northwestern Nicaragua, and along the Atlantic coastlines, where moderate to heavy rain was received. Although recent vegetation health indices have indicated overall marginal to favorable conditions over Central America, worsening ground conditions have been registered over localized areas of Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.

For next week, seasonal weather, with light to locally moderate rain is forecast across Central America. The forecast, limited rain is likely to maintain thirty-day rainfall deficits and sustain abnormal dryness across the dry portions of Central America. In contrast, moderate to heavy showers are expected along the Gulf of Honduras, southwestern Guatemala, El Salvador, the Pacific Basin of Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean.


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#518856 - 11/10/16 04:52 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November 10 – 26, 2016

Seasonable weather pattern forecast to continue.

Heavy rain observed along the Gulf of Honduras and Pacific Rim of Central America during the past week.

During early November, suppressed rain continued throughout the interior of northern Central America, in particular, central Guatemala and northwestern Honduras. In contrast, abundant rain fell along the Gulf of Honduras, southwestern Pacific region of Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, and the Pacific Rim of the Southern Caribbean. Moderate to locally heavy rain was observed across the Atlantic regions of Nicaragua. The continued limited rain over the past few weeks has contributed to the persistence of rainfall deficits across the dry portions of Guatemala and Honduras over the past thirty days. An analysis of the number of rain day anomaly since early October to date has also indicated less frequent rain throughout central Guatemala and northern Honduras. As rain is climatologically expected to subside during this time of the year, continued poor rain could potentially further deteriorate ground conditions and reduce crop yields over many local areas. Vegetation health indices from crop performance model have indicated mediocre conditions over localized areas of western Guatemala and northern Honduras.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts suggest a continuation of light rain throughout the interior of Central America, while moderate to heavy rain is possible over parts of western and northern Guatemala and along both the Atlantic and Pacific coastlines. The forecast light rain is likely to maintain or worsen conditions on the ground over the dry portions of the region. Farther south, abundant rain is forecast over Costa Rica and Panama.


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#519059 - 11/16/16 07:04 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November November 17 – 23, 2016

A slight increase in rain forecast over the dry portions of Central America during the next period.

Enhanced rain forecast along the Atlantic basin and portions of northern Central America.

From November 8-14, suppressed rain prevailed over Central America. The heaviest (> 50 mm) rain fell in southwestern Guatemala, central El Salvador, the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua and southern Caribbean. Since mid-August to date, rain has been poorly-distributed throughout western and central Guatemala to western and central Honduras. The largest ninety-day rainfall deficits have been observed over portions of central Guatemala and north-central Honduras, where accumulated rain have accounted for only between 25-50 percent of the average. Although rain is expected to gradually subside across the interior of Central America during this time of the year, rain has diminished significantly over the dry portions of the region since late September. An analysis of vegetation conditions from remote sensing techniques has indicated degrading conditions in western and central Guatemala and western Honduras as a response to the lack of rain. Conditions could worsen and potentially impact and reduce the Postrera, August-November, crop yields if suppressed rain continues.

During the next outlook period, a slight increase in rainfall is expected over the inland of Central America. Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected over western and central Guatemala, the northern-tier of Honduras, and Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua. The forecast enhanced rain could help reduce or eliminate moisture deficits and possibly alleviate dryness over some areas. Farther south, torrential rain is forecast over the Southern Caribbean, which may also trigger localized flooding.


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#519232 - 11/24/16 12:06 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November November 24 – 30, 2016

Tropical Storm Otto over the southwestern Caribbean Sea could impact portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica during the next outlook period.

Heavy downpours expected along the Atlantic coasts and southern parts of Central America.

During the past week, suppressed rain prevailed over much of Central America. However, moderate to heavy rain was received along the Atlantic coasts of eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and over the Southern Caribbean. In Costa Rica and Panama, this past week’s torrential rain triggered flooding, resulting in many affected people over several areas, according to media reports. An analysis of cumulative rain since late October to date has indicated dryness, with moderate to large rain deficits over central Guatemala, much of Honduras, central Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. In contrast, wetness, with small to moderate surpluses have been observed over parts of southwestern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua, the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. As the second season rain is coming to an end, rain is expected to subside throughout much of Central America. This may worsen conditions on the ground over areas, already affected by dryness. Conversely, the continuation of abundant rain could also exacerbate conditions over saturated areas such as local parts of the Southern Caribbean.

During the next outlook period, Tropical Storm Otto, located to the east southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, is expected to intensify into hurricane force and move west northwestward, potentially making landfall and impacting southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This, therefore, increases risks for flooding, landslides, an infrastructure damages over many local areas of the region. Abundant rain is expected across northern Honduras and along the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, while limited, with little to light rain is forecast elsewhere. Farther south, torrential rain is forecast to continue over Costa Rica and Panama and maintains elevated risks for flooding and mudslides over many areas of the region.


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#519410 - 11/30/16 10:22 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November December 1 – 7, 2016

Hurricane Otto led to flooding and many affected people over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Light to locally moderate rain forecast during the next period.

From November 22-28, the passage of Hurricane Otto brought heavy downpours, with rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This caused flooding, infrastructure damages, and many affected people over many areas of southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica, according to media reports. Moderate to heavy rain was also observed in eastern Honduras and the Southern Caribbean, while suppressed rain was recorded throughout Guatemala, El Salvador, the western two-thirds of Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua. Although the enhanced rain, associated with the passage of Hurricane Otto, helped eliminate rainfall deficits over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, negative rainfall anomalies have persisted throughout parts of western and eastern Guatemala, much of Honduras, and north-central Nicaragua over the past thirty days. Moreover, since late August to date, northern Central America, including Guatemala and Honduras, have accumulated only between 50-80 percent of their average. Some areas have received even less than 50 percent of their average rain. As the Postrera, August- November season, is coming to an end, the chance for recovery in rainfall is unlikely.

During the next outlook period, light rain is expected throughout much of the interior of Central America. This should help reduce positive rainfall anomalies and partially relieve wetness over areas, affected by the passage of Hurricane Otto during the past week. In contrast, moderate showers are possible over localized areas of Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, and along the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Farther south, moderate to heavy rain is forecast to continue over Costa Rica and Panama.


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#519610 - 12/08/16 07:56 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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NOAA Outlook for Central America November December 8 – 14, 2016

Decreased rainfall observed during early December.

Increased rainfall amounts expected over northern Guatemala.

Compared to the previous week with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Otto, a large decrease in precipitation was observed throughout much of Central America during early December. The highest weekly accumulations (>50mm) were received over several costal departments of Costa Rica Nicaragua, and Panama, with more moderate totals (10-25mm) throughout the northern coastal departments of Honduras. Little to no rainfall was received for many interior departments of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Since early November, many areas in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Belize have experienced below-average rains leading to late season moisture deficits. The anomalous dryness across central and eastern Guatemala and western Honduras has been associated with a longer-term trend of low and erratic seasonal rainfall, as several areas have received less than 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulations since early September. The suppressed Postrera rains in the region are likely to lead to unfavorable ground conditions and may negatively impact cropping activities. With precipitation normally decreasing in December, recovery of moisture deficits appears unlikely.

During the next outlook period, precipitation models suggest an increase in rainfall throughout much of Central America, with the potential for heavy rainfall amounts (>75mm) over northern Guatemala. Seasonable rainfall amounts are expected throughout the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama during the next seven days.


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#520244 - 12/21/16 11:53 PM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]  
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