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Monthly Weather Summary, December 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climatology shows that the main features influencing weather across the country of Belize in December are cold fronts, upper level troughs and the development of moist northeasterly airflows in the area. There was no frontal passage in December of 2015. �However, a couple fronts stalled over or just north of the country resulting in relatively moist conditions over the area. The upper levels were mostly dry during the month. ��

On the first day of December a surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras supported a moist North to Northeasterly airflow over the country. This resulted in cloudy skies at times with a few showers and light rain across the country. The same feature continued on the 2nd but conditions were� a bit drier that day with only isolated showers developing. On the 3rd the trough moved a little closer to the country and moisture increased once more. Skies were cloudy with a few showers and light rain mainly over the Sea and along the coast. Similar conditions continued the following day with a weak low developing along the surface trough. On the 5th, the National Hurricane Center analyzed a stationary front east of the country. However, all observations indicated that the front was further north over Yucatan and instead the feature analyzed as the front was actually the persistent surface trough. Showers increased that day and conditions were a bit moist until the 7th.

Moisture decreased during the 8th� and by the 9th weather conditions were mainly fair with only isolated showers. �The dry spell was interrupted briefly on the 10th when skies were generally cloudy with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and southern areas of the country.� The 11th was a bit drier and then moisture increased slightly again on the 12th resulting in partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a few showers.

Weather conditions were mostly dry from the 13th to the 17th. During this time a frontal boundary persisted in the Gulf of Mexico and a slack pressure pattern dominated over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and Belize.� The result was a light and mostly dry east to southeasterly airflow over the country.

By the 18th a cold front advanced to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula resulting in a slight increase in moisture over the country. Conditions became even more moist on the 19th as the front became stationary over Belize. Additionally, a short-wave trough at the upper levels was just west of the country and supported moderately divergent conditions aloft. These conditions supported an increase in convective instability over the area and thunder was observed at the airport during the night� of the 19th into the early morning hours of the 20th. Cloudiness and showers decreased later on the 20th and conditions became generally dry on the 21st.

Another dry spell developed over the area from the 21st through to the 28th of December 2015. The dominant feature during this time was the Atlantic ridge to the northeast. This feature combined with a moderately intense Panamanian low over the southwest Caribbean caused tight pressure gradients over the area. The result was a gusty and dry southeasterly airflow that persisted through the Christmas holiday. Rainfall was limited with only isolated showers occurring mostly at nighttime and mainly on the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

Moisture increased slightly on the 29th. This occurred as a cold front dipped into the eastern Gulf of Mexico causing winds to decrease slightly over the area. The cold front would not make it as far as Yucatan and gradually retrogressed into the northwest Gulf. However, conditions remained marginally moist through to the end of the month. Showers were generally isolated on the 30th but a few more developed over inland and southern areas to close off the month on the 31st.

Table 1 below shows the rainfall recorded in December 2015 versus the climatological mean for the month� for a few of the weather stations across the country. From the table it can be seen that most stations in the north recorded above average rainfall while a few in the south and the west recorded below average.�

Table 1.

Monthly Weather Summary, January 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

January 2016 began with a few coastal showers in Belize. Showers were also observed over the south. A moist north-easterly air flow was dominating as a result of a stationary front in the Bay of Campeche, Mexico. These showers continued on the second day of the month and became isolated on the third.

The first cold front for the month crossed the country on the fourth day. The only indication of its passage was light showers moving from west to east, along with the backing of the winds to the northwest. Showers were observed over and near Belize through to the sixth.

The country experienced little rainfall activity during the next three days, as the frontal system moved out of the area and winds veered to the east and southeast. On the tenth day, another cold front crossed the country. Again, not much rainfall activity was observed. The front moved just off shore and dissipated, supporting showers inland and over the south during the next four days.

The following two days, the fifteenth and sixteenth saw sunny and clear conditions, with no rainfall. No rainfall was observed on the seventeenth when yet another cold front made its way across the country. Cool and dry weather dominated on the eighteenth and nineteenth. It moved just off shore where it became stationary, lingering there through to the twenty-first. The proximity of the frontal system supported cloudy conditions across the country and light showers were observed mostly over central and northern areas.

On the twenty-second afternoon, a few light showers were observed over inland areas as yet another cold front approached the country. It crossed later that night with very little rainfall. It moved very quickly east and south of the country and the associated high-pressure ridge supported cool and dry conditions during the following four days.

On the twenty-seventh, another cold front approached the country. Pre-frontal activity was evident as isolated showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the Maya Mountains. The front quickly crossed the country on the twenty-eight evening with light showers and strong, gusty winds over some parts of the north.

The remaining three days of the month was uneventful. Cool and dry conditions prevailed.

In conclusion, five cold fronts crossed Belize during January 2016. Cool temperatures were recorded, but they were well within the normal range. All of the cold fronts were relatively dry and data analysis shows that rainfall for this month was well below the average for this time of the year.

Station� January_2016��� Normal (1981-2010)

Monthly Weather Summary, February 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

A moderate and relatively dry east-southeasterly airflow prevailed during Monday 1st of February through Wednesday 3rd when winds backed to the northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. Some pre-frontal activity developed during Thursday 4th as a north to south line of showers developed from near Orange walk Town to offshore Placencia and moved eastwards. A gusty northwesterly flow developed in the wake of the shear-line. The associated cold front crossed Yucatan and Belize by early morning Friday 5th with light rain / drizzle affecting some areas of the country through Saturday 6th. By Sunday 7th skies cleared as the cool and gusty northwesterly flow dominated. A series of re-enforcing surges of cooler air settled over the area the following couple of days and maintained cool and relatively dry conditions through Thursday 11th. A few showers and periods of light rain returned to some ares over-night Thursday 11 through midday Friday 12th and again during the night of Saturday 13th as moisture returned over the area in a northeasterly flow.

Strong high pressures offshore the Carolinas resulted in the development of a moderate southeasterly airflow over our area and pushed residual moisture across the central to northern areas of the country by Monday 15th. Cloudy condiitions developed during Tuesday 16th as a small cyclonic vertex developed offshore Belize and Honduras and supported northwesterly winds over-land and a southeasterly flow at the Cayes. Showers occurred mostly over northern and along some coastal areas.

By the Tuesday 16th another cold front was over the Gulf of Mexico and the associated Continental high centered over Texas supported a northeasterly flow. Skies were cloudy along with showers occurring over the norhern districts and north facing slopes of the Maya Mountains. The weak frontal boundary meandered between southeastern Yucatan and Belize through Wednesday 17th. Showers and periods of rain affected northern coastal areas at first then increased over most areas over-night into Thursday 18th. The focus for showers and rain continued to the south of the country into Friday 19th as a gusty northeasterly flow developed in response to strong high pressures over the southeastern United States.

Mainly fair weather with only isolated showers prevailed during Saturday 20th through Monday 22nd as deepening low over Texas pulled a southeasterly flow over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize. Winds backed to northwesterly and became gusty over-night into Tuesday 23rd as another cold front approached. Late evening pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over northern and inland areas During Wednesday 24th and spread east to the central and south coast. The cold front crossed the country by early-morning Thursday 25th with showers and rain continuing over and offshore the south of the country.

A gusty northeasterly airflow prevailed during Thursday 25th through Sunday 28th with some periods of light rain affetcting the central and some coastal areas of the country. Conditions became mainly fair, cool and dry during Monday 29th.

Monthly Weather Summary, March 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Only one cold front crossed the country in March of this year; while rainfall was above normal at some stations in the south and one in the northwest.

The first two days of the month was mainly fair with only isolated showers. A weak surface ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico supported a relatively dry east-northeast airflow over our area. On the 3rd, skies became cloudy and a few showers affected inland areas during the day. Tower Hill and Melinda recorded just under an inch of rain for that day. During the night and the next day, some light rain moving from west to east affected central and northern districts as conditions became moist, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. An upper low over northern Mexico produced a divergent southwest upper flow over the region. Pomona received almost three inches of rain, with all other stations well under one inch. A few periods of light rain continued on Saturday 5th, along with an isolated thunderstorm in the Belize City area in the afternoon. The rain gauge at St Johns College recorded just over one inch or rain, while Baldi beacon had about half an inch more. On the 6th, conditions continued relatively moist and a few showers affected mostly southern districts, with Punta Gorda getting about two and a half inches of rain. The rains spread to most areas the next day, though not as intense, and decreased by that evening. The surface flow had veered to the east under the influence of a ridge that extended from the Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean Sea, and the moisture was starting to decrease.

The surface ridge to the north and northeast strengthened further and resulted in a moderate to fresh, and mostly dry, east-southeast airflow over our area for the next five days (8th-12th). A divergent upper southwest flow supported isolated thunderstorms over the extreme southwest on the 12th. The gradient then relaxed a little, but the dry east-southeast flow continued for the next seven days (13th-19th), with conditions gradually warming up. An approaching cold front induced cloudy skies along with isolated showers and thunderstorms on the 20th, then produced some light rain along with strong gusty northerly winds as it crossed during the next day. Baldi Beacon reported over two inches of rain for the 20th, while Middlesex had over one and one half inches. Skies continued cloudy on the 22nd with a few light showers/rain over the south and west, and only isolated showers/rain the next day as the front retrogressed and dissipated over our area. The surface flow veered to the east-southeast and the moisture decreased further on the 24th, resulting in seasonally fair and warm weather to the end of the month. The upper pattern was weakly divergent at first, but became weakly convergent by the last two days.

Monthly Weather Summary, April 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climatologically, the Atlantic High Pressure ridge usually dominates the region during the month of April. Its orientation typically produces a dry southeasterly airflow across the country. At times heat-lows may develop across southern Mexico which causes pressure gradients to tighten over the area resulting in gusty winds. However, when the centres of these systems are over or very near the country, pressure gradients would instead slacken causing light winds and an excessively high heat-index. This overall synoptic pattern for the month normally corresponds with dry and warm weather. The only relief would come in the form of an occasional cold front. On average about two cold fronts would cross the country during the month. These may be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms and they are the main producers of the little rainfall for the month. April 2016 was characteristically warm but much drier than normal. This is likely due to the fact that only one weak frontal boundary affected the country.

The first day of April 2016, started out mainly fair and warm as a dry easterly to southeasterly surface flow dominated the area. A cold front was approaching the next day with a prefrontal trof crossing the country during the night. This supported an increase in moisture with a few showers and thunderstorms. Moisture would continue relatively high during the next few days from the 3rd to the 5th as the weak front stalled just north of Belize and gradually dissipated. Its remnants drifted south during the night of the 5th and by the 6th light showers and rain were confined to the south.

Moisture decreased on the 7th and conditions continued mainly fair and dry for the next few days. However, daytime temperatures were slightly lower than normal up until the 12th. This was largely due to an anomalous easterly to east-northeasterly surface flow.

The normal synoptic pattern became established on the 13th and the warm and dry easterly to southeasterly airflow developed over the area. This continued until the 17th and little to no rainfall was recorded during this period.

Winds backed up once again to the east and then east to northeast between the 18th and the 24th. This wind shift initially supported slightly cloudier conditions across the country on the 19th and 20th as a weak moisture surge developed. This produced a very slight increase in showers across the country. However, by the 21st moisture decreased once more even though the surface flow remained easterly to east-northeasterly.

The high pressure system moved off to the east of the Continental United States on the 25th. Its new orientation caused the surface flow to veer to the east-southeast over Belize and temperatures gradually increased over the area. Additionally, heat lows began developing to the northwest around the 29th. The pressure gradients therefore tightened and the easterly to southeasterly flow became gusty on the last two days of the month.

As mentioned previously rainfall was well below normal during April 2016. Except for the showers experienced between the 2nd and the 6th and the weak moisture surge between the 19th and 20th no significant rainfall occurred. Figure 1, below indicates that most stations across the country recorded below normal rainfall except for Tower Hill in the north and Baldy Beacon over the Mountain Pine Ridge area.

Monthly Weather Summary, May 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

May in Belize is considered the hottest month of the year. Indeed May 2016 was hot, but it also proved to be more.

From the first to the fourth, dry and stable conditions prevailed. No rainfall was recorded at any of the stations. On the fourth night, however, pre-frontal activities supported an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms which moved from north to south across the country.

On the fifth, the trailing cold front crossed the country without producing any rainfall. Showers were observed late that night over the extreme south of the country.

From the sixth to the fifteenth, isolated to a few showers were all that were observed around the country. The bulk of these were observed over the extreme south.

From the sixteenth, to the end of the month, fair, warm and mostly dry conditions prevailed.

In conclusion, high temperatures were recorded, but none record breaking. One cold front crossed the country between the fourth and fifth of the month. Even though pre-frontal activities supported showers and thunderstorms, all other days were mostly dry. The final rainfall data shows most of the stations recorded well below the average. In fact, data shows record breaking amounts far below the normal.

Monthly Weather Summary, June 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

June marks the start of the rainy season in Belize which coincides with the hurricane season that runs from June to November. Weather conditions were mainly fair across the country during the first couple of days. An approaching tropical wave during the Friday 3rd supported a east-northeasterly airflow and an increase in moisure and showers over northern areas of the country as a developing low was observed to the east. The developing low / area of disturbed weather maintained moist and unstable conditions the next few days with showers and thunderstorms spreading across the country from the southwest to the northeast during Sat 4th and spread northeastwards across central and northern areas during Sun. 5th. By midday the low / area of disturbed weather was upgraded to tropical Depression #3 and to Tropical Storm Colin just north of Yucatan later that evening. Except for lingering showers and thundestoerms over the south of the country, weather conditions improved over-night Monday 6th into Tuesday 7th.

During the Tuesday 7th, a tough of low pressure developed over the Northwest Caribbean Sea from east of Belize to south Florida. The resulting east-southeasterly flow at the surface and low levels resulted in showers spreading northwestwards across central and northern areas of the country through Friday 10th. An induced surface trough / reflection of an upper level low then approached our area. As the upper level low crossed southern Belize the surface trough / wave moved across 86w south of 15n. The increase in moisture along with a diffluent / diverent upper level pattern between the low and a trailing upper level ridge supported showers and thunderstorms through Saturday 11th into Sunday 12th.

Mainly fair weather prevailed during the daytime of Monday 13th through Thursday 16th under the influence of a moderate and gusty east-southeasterly airflow. However, a few showers and thunderstorms affecting mostly the south of the country during the night-time / early morning hours. Another tropical wave crossed the country during Friday 17th. The wave was accompanied by a weak low at low to mid levels of the atmosphere east of northern Belize and Yucatan and supported a surge in low level winds. Showers and thunderstorms affected northern and inland areas during peak daytime heating hours, then increased along the central and northern coastline during the night-time resulting in localized floodings of streets and residents in the north. The low continued to influence our weather with an MCS developing over the Ladyville / Belize City area over-night Friday 18th into Saturday 19th and produced heavy rainfall accumulation at the PGIA by midday Sunday 19th. The system tracked across southeastern Mexico / Yucatan and Guatemala and was upgrded to Tropica Depression #4 over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday 19th and eventually into tropical storm Danielle over the southwest Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche early Sunday 20th.

A relatively moist east-northeasterly airflow prevaled as yet another tropical wave approached and was supported by diffleunt pattern aloft between the low over northwestern Yucatan and ridge dominating northern Central America and the western Caribbean. A weak low developed in association with the wave along 87W then crossed the country during Tuesday 22nd. Showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain affected most areas of the country through Wednesday 23rd then occurred in a more diurnal pattern the next few days affecting especially the south during the night-time.

An upper level trough was over the Bay of Campeche as another tropical wave approached the country and supported an eastnortheasterly surface and low level flow. The wave crossed the area over-night Monday 27th into Tuesday 28th and showers and thunderstorms affected most areas. Except for night-time showers continuing to affect the south of the country at night-time, weather conditions were mainly fair over most areas the next few days through the end of the month.

Monthly Weather Summary, July 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Six, mostly weak, tropical waves crossed the country during the month of July 2016, and rainfall was below average, except over the extreme south. Some stations in the north received only one third of their normal rain for the month, while Punta Gorda received about one quarter more than normal.

The month started with a few showers and thunderstorms over southern districts, which became isolated the next day as moisture levels decreased over our area. A moderate easterly surface flow prevailed along with a neutral upper level pattern. A weak tropical wave then supported a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms over most areas on the 3rd, then mainly over northern districts on the 4th. The next two days were generally fair, with a few showers and thunderstorms continuing over the south, especially at night, as moisture levels remained high over the south, and the upper pattern being weakly divergent with an anticyclone to the east.

Another weak tropical wave resulted in a few showers and brief thunderstorms over most areas during the day of the 7th, which continued over the south during the night. Winds were gusty and the low level pattern convergent. Rainfall over the Toledo district totalled four to five inches for the 7th. The weather returned to mainly fair with isolated shower activity the next four days (8th-11th), except for the south where a few showers and thunderstorms continued mostly at night. Southern Toledo averaged one inch of rain per day (night). These southern showers continued into the morning on the 10th and 11th. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico maintained the moderate easterly airflow over our area.

The 12th saw a few showers and thunderstorms over most areas as a weak tropical wave moved across the country. A weakly divergent upper pattern supported these showers. Rainfall was less than one inch at most stations. During the next four days (13th-16th) the weather was mainly fair with isolated showers and thunderstorms, except for the south again at night. Punta Gorda recorded three and one half inches of rain on the 16th. A light east to east-northeast surface airflow prevailed on those days along with relatively low moisture and a neutral upper pattern. Showers and thunderstorms then increased mainly over the south and central areas on the 17th and continued to the 19th when another tropical wave crossed the country. One to two inches of rain was recorded over central portions of the country. The rains decreased by the next afternoon, and mainly fair weather prevailed on the 21st and 22nd, except again over the south during the night-time hours.

Another weak tropical wave produced a slight to moderate increase in rainfall and resulted in few showers and thunderstorms over most areas on the 23rd. The weather then returned to mainly fair the next four days (24th -27th) with showers during the morning of the 26th and over the south most nights. Punta Gorda continued to receive two to four inches of rain per day (night). The surface flow was generally easterly and moderate, while the upper pattern neutral to weakly divergent with an inverted trof axis from Nicaragua to central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms developed over the interior on the 28th, mainly due to heating and increasing moisture. Another tropical wave supported showers and thunderstorms over most areas on the 29th, with the extreme south seeing almost four inches of rain and generally less than one inch elsewhere. Fair and mainly dry weather prevailed the next day, with a slight increase in showers and thunderstorms coming on the last day of the month.

Monthly Weather Summary, August 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climate statistics show that the main weather features that affect the country of Belize during August are tropical waves, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and an occasional tropical cyclone. The month of August is also characterized by a two-week dry spell referred to locally as the 'Maga Season'.

August 2016 saw the passage of seven tropical waves most of which were rather weak. The most significant feature to affect the country was Hurricane Earl which caused wind and storm surge damage mainly in the Ladyville area. Additionally, excess rainfall amounts over central areas of the country resulted in flooding particularly in the west.

Moisture gradually increased across the country during the first two days of August as the area came under a northeasterly surface flow ahead of the system which later developed into Hurricane Earl. Tropical Storm Earl formed just south of Jamaica at around 16Z (10 a.m. local time) on the 2nd of August. The system was moving westward at a relatively fast pace and by the 3rd August outer rain bands from Earl began affecting Belize. Skies were cloudy with some outbreak of showers and thunderstorms that day. Earl was upgraded to a hurricane at 21Z (3 p.m. local time) on the 3rd and made landfall later that night at about 11:53 p.m. local time as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Landfall was about 13 miles south-southwest of Belize City. The highest wind gusts observed was at Half-Moon Caye where a 104 mph wind gust was recorded. At the Airport the highest gusts was 73 mph while at Port of Belize in Belize City it was 80 mph. Earl also caused a storm surge of about 3-5 feet particularly in the Vista Del Mar area of Ladyville. Hurricane Earl made a sudden southwestward wobble just before landfall and continued that motion across Belize with its center passing just south of Belmopan before moving further west. Torrential rainfall in the west resulted in flooding of the Macal River. Weather conditions gradually improved on the 5th as the system moved further west into Guatemala and eventually emerged in the Bay of Campeche before making a second landfall near Vera Cruz, Mexico on August 6th.

Moisture remained relatively high over Belize during the days immediately after Earl but rainfall totals were minimal. The relatively fair weather continued through to the 8th when a weak and rather inactive tropical wave crossed the country. Another weak tropical wave crossed on the night of the 9th resulting in showers and thunderstorms in the south.

Fair weather prevailed across the country on the 10th and 11th and then moisture begun increasing on the 12th ahead of another tropical wave. This resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms which continued on the 13th when the wave crossed. Moisture and instability, though decreasing, remained relatively high on the 14th causing a few more showers and thunderstorms across the country. Additionally, there were reports of a tornado-like storm affecting the Spanish Lookout area on the 14th.

An easterly to southeasterly airflow supported mainly fair weather on the 15th and most of the 16th with the exception of a few showers that affected mainly central and northern areas. This increase on the 16th was due the approach of yet another tropical wave. This wave crossed on the 17th causing moist conditions with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern and central areas. Moisture decreased on the 18th and generally fair weather prevailed with only a few early morning showers and thunderstorms over the south.

Moisture increased once more on the 19th ahead of tropical wave number 5 for the month which crossed on the 20th. A brief reduction in moisture on the 21st was short-lived as yet another tropical wave was approaching. Tropical wave number 6 crossed on the night on of the 22nd resulting in showers and thunderstorms mainly over the south which continued early on the 23rd. Conditions continued slightly moist on the 24th and 25th as broad trofing developed over the central Caribbean and supported an east to northeasterly surface flow over Belize. A slack pressure pattern developed on the 26th causing light and variable early morning winds which became north to northeasterly later in the day. Weather conditions were mainly fair with only isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The last tropical wave for the month was approaching on the 27th with a weak area of low pressure embedded along its axis over the northwest Caribbean. A distinct low level swirl was noted on visible satellite imagery. This wave became rather ill-defined thereafter and no significant weather affected the country with its passage.

The last few days of the month (August 28 to 31) saw a slack pressure pattern over the area resulting in light winds and very warm daytime temperatures. Conditions were generally fair with afternoon thunderstorms affecting mainly inland areas of the country.

The figures below show a summary of the rainfall activity for the month. The figure at the top shows the total rainfall recorded. As can be seen the highest rainfall was recorded over the central mountainous areas of the country with Baldy Beacon recording a total of 447.9 mm. The figure at the bottom shows how this rainfall compares to average as it shows what percentage of the normal was recorded. Blue colors indicate above normal while red colors indicate below normal rainfall. The figure clearly indicates that the south got significantly less rainfall than normal. Northern areas were also below normal but slightly less so compared to the south. Central areas of the country recorded above normal rainfall. This area of above normal rainfall correlates directly with the path taken by Hurricane Earl. This suggests that the excess rainfall from Hurricane Earl was likely the main factor contributing to above normal rainfall in this area.