...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...
Max winds predicted at 63phs (55 knots)
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.
At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).
The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.
Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.
For more information, click for our daily Tropical Weather Report