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#516430 - 08/02/16 10:17 AM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,391
Katie Valk Offline
Katie Valk  Offline
Thks Marty


Belize based travel specialist
www.belize-trips.com
info@belize-trips.com
#516432 - 08/02/16 11:10 AM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 562
wade the gringo Offline
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wade the gringo  Offline

Tropic Air Belize

2 hrs ·
..

*** WEATHER NOTICE ***
We are monitoring the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (97L), and will continue to do so as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Belize tomorrow and Thursday. Currently, we are operating a normal flight schedule. If adjustments in our flight operations are required, we will do our best to keep all our customers (and those affected by the adjustments) informed. Any queries regarding the exact status of your flight(s) can be answered by contacting our reservations team at +501 226 2012 or by email at reservations@tropicair.com


"But WHY's the rum gone?

www.wadethegringo.com
#516436 - 08/02/16 12:44 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
Jeff Masters:

The outlook for Earl
Although Earl kept forecasters guessing as to exactly when it would become a tropical storm, forecast models have come into increasing solidarity on Earl’s prognosis. A sprawling area of high pressure to the north of Earl will keep the storm moving on a general westerly path. Even though it will slow down a bit over the next day or two, Earl still has less than two days to gather strength before it makes landfall late Wednesday, most likely in Belize but possibly on the far southeast Mexican coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The official NHC outlook keeps Earl just below hurricane strength at landfall late Wednesday night. Wind shear is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain at a light to moderate 10 - 20 mph, although parts of the circulation are being affected by stronger shear to the north associated with a slow-moving upper-level trough over the northwest Atlantic. We will have to keep a close eye on Earl tonight and Wednesday, as sea-surface temperatures are more than 1°C above average over the northwestern Caribbean, and Earl’s path will put it on the south edge of an area of of extremely high oceanic heat content that covers most of the northwest Caribbean. These waters would support rapid intensification if other conditions were favorable, although Earl may not be well enough organized to take full advantage of this oceanic rocket fuel.

The 00Z Tuesday ensemble runs of the ECMWF model were unanimous in keeping Earl as a weak tropical storm, while most members of the 06Z Tuesday GFS ensemble brought Earl up to strong tropical storm strength. The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS statistical model gives Earl a 21% chance of a 24-hour increase of 25 knots in sustained winds, which would bring Earl to the threshold of hurricane status. Although the prospect is unlikely, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Earl become a minimal hurricane just before landfall, as predicted by the 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model. We’re very lucky that Earl is moving across the Caribbean so quickly, or else it could have become a much more formidable storm. If Earl remains far enough north on its trek across the Yucatan, it may have a brief window to reorganize across the southern Bay of Campeche, where the short-lived Tropical Storm Danielle formed in late June. It’s worth noting that Earl will be the fifth of all five named systems in the Atlantic this year to make landfall somewhere.


#516441 - 08/02/16 01:19 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

The Navy web site is often one of the most accurate forecasts. The strongest winds by Thursday are expected to be up to 50 mph with 65 mph gusts.

This is low end Tropical Storm. So winds are not expected to be the big problem.

Bur rain, well if the last two days are to go by, we could be seeing significant rain, some patches heavy rain from Wednesday afternoon, getting worse through Wednesday night, easing off by Thursday morning.


Forecast positions and Max winds
Init  02/1600z 16.3n  80.2w   40 kt  45 mph
 12h  03/0000z 16.3n  82.6w   45 kt  50 mph
 24h  03/1200z 17.0n  85.2w   50 kt  60 mph
 36h  04/0000z 17.5n  87.5w   55 kt  65 mph
 48h  04/1200z 18.0n  90.0w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 72h  05/1200z 19.2n  94.0w   40 kt  45 mph...over water
 96h  06/1200z 20.0n  98.0w   25 kt  30 mph...inland
120h  07/1200z...dissipated



Here is how TS Earl looks like from space

International Space Station cameras captured a tropical system in the Caribbean Sea on Aug. 1 southeast of Jamaica moving due west. At Noon ET on Aug. 2, the system formed into Tropical Storm Earl.



#516442 - 08/02/16 02:04 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

at 500 PM EDT (2100 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 north, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Rainfall: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge: a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge. This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus.


#516444 - 08/02/16 03:56 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,850
Diane Campbell Offline
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Diane Campbell  Offline
local report ........perfect skies, water not to rough, rumbling of distant thunder from someplace.
locals report that fish are going up the river in mazing volume, clearly en route to lagoon for shelter - they caught a lot of fish, some very large/
my dog and others are not liking this event at all ....... shaking and hiding well in advance of Earl.
all fascinating ......!
we'll be fine.
:-)

#516447 - 08/02/16 05:30 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

at 800 PM EDT (0000 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 north, longitude 82.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge. This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus.

Forecast positions and Max winds
Init  02/2100z 16.4n  81.5w   45 kt  50 mph
 12h  03/0600z 16.5n  83.6w   50 kt  60 mph
 24h  03/1800z 17.0n  86.0w   55 kt  65 mph
 36h  04/0600z 17.5n  88.3w   60 kt  70 mph
 48h  04/1800z 18.0n  90.5w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 72h  05/1800z 19.0n  94.0w   40 kt  45 mph...over water
 96h  06/1800z 20.0n  98.5w   25 kt  30 mph...inland
120h  07/1800z...dissipated

NEMO Public Advisory # 6

NEMO has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the entire country. At 6:00p.m Tropical Storm Earl was centered near Latitude 16.4°N, Longitude 82.3°W or 398 miles east of Belize City. Earl is moving westward near 16 mph. On this track, the center of Earl will make landfall on Belize Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Earl will produce rainfall accumulation of 8-12 inches over Belize. These rains could cause flash floods and mud slides especially over higher terrain. For coastal areas, there is also a risk for flooding, especially in low lying areas such as Belize City. All marine interests, especially small crafts, should exercise caution this evening and tonight, and seek safe harbour tomorrow morning as large swells will be affecting our coastal waters. In case of urgent /emergency last minute runs in the morning large Seagoing carriers are to exercise best judgement based on the sea state conditions. You are asked to keep NEMO informed. The NEMO Operations Officer number is 661 1190.

Actions being taken by NEMO.

  • People who have livestock in low lying areas that are flood prone should move them to higher grounds.
  • Farmers in flood prone areas who have crops out in the fields that are close to harvesting should take action.
  • Price gouging will not be tolerated.
  • Labour matters: All employers are hereby advised that they are to comply with the directive (s) from NEMO regarding employees safety. In the circumstance an employee has the right to seek safety. Any employer who prevents and employee from leaving, commits an offense under the provisions of the Labour Amendment Act #3 of 2011.
  • Belize City Swing: Bridge will be open at 5:30a.m. tomorrow morning.
  • Belize Airport Authority will be closed at midday tomorrow.
  • The last bus runs will leave from the north, west and south at midday and from Belize City to north, west and south at 4p.m. Urgent /emergency last minute runs must be cleared with NEMO operations officer.
  • Municipal flights will be suspended at midday tomorrow.
  • Port Closures: Fort St Tourism Village is closed; molasses and sugar vessels closed down and moved to safe waters; Port of Belize closed at 5:00 p.m. today; Port of Big Creek closed at 3:00 p.m. today, after the last vessel left for safe waters; Puma energy will be closed tomorrow at 12:00 midday. We have instructed that the port at San Pedro and PG be closed to cross border traffic after the last vessel today.


From Tropic Air

***SEVERE WEATHER NOTICE***
Due to the effects of tropical storm Earl, which will be affecting the coastline of Belize, Tropic Air will be temporarily suspending all flights on Wednesday afternoon, August 3rd. This includes our flights to our international destinations such as Cancun, Merida and Roatan. We anticipate a full resumption of flights as soon as the local authorities in Belize issue an "all clear" on Thursday.

All our offices remain open and our reservations team is standing by to rebook, alter or help any of our passengers with travel reservations affected by tropical storm Earl. They are also available to answer any Tropic Air travel related questions. You can contact them at +501 226 2012 or via email at reservations@tropicair.com.

Please note that we will not be accepting any new cargo starting 5pm today (Tuesday) until further notice. For cargo queries, please contact your nearest Tropic Air Station.


Bowen & Bowen is open today (Tuesday) till 8PM!!!.



For more information, click for our daily Tropical Weather Report


#516450 - 08/02/16 08:27 PM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,850
Diane Campbell Offline
.
Diane Campbell  Offline
forecast just changed to Hurricane at landfall in Belize
storm is already 60MPH, and forward speed has slowed to 16 (still fast, but way down from 25)
Hurricane Warning for Belize was issued a little while ago

#516451 - 08/03/16 04:11 AM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE...

A large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24 hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of Campeche thereafter. The new forecast track is similar to, but south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.

Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This combination should allow continued strengthening, and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models. Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous forecast.

Forecast positions and Max winds
INIT  03/0900Z 16.1N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 16.5N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 17.0N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z 18.1N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

is an updated track of TS Earl as it heads towards the coast of Belize at about 16 mph. Earl will very likely reach hurricane strength before making landfall on Wednesday night or early Thursday. The system will also slow down as it begins to interact with the N coast of Honduras and Belize and may become erratic.


NEMO Advisory #7: Tropical Storm Earl approaching Belize

NEMO is hereby upgrading the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for the entire coast of Belize, as Tropical Storm Earl is likely to intensify to Hurricane strength, just before making landfall. Weather conditions over the country is expected to deteriorate to hurricane conditions within the next twenty four (24) hours, meaning winds in excess of 70 mph will be affecting the country of Belize. Rainfall is estimated to be as high as 12 inches. Storm surge is likely to be 3-5ft.

Tropical Storm Earl maintains it westerly track moving 16 mph, it is probable that the track could change during the course of the next 6-12 hours. TS Earl was centered near Latitude 16.4°N, Longitude 83.0°W or approx 350 miles east of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.

All are advised to pay keen attention and take the necessary actions to save life. Shelters will be open from 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning to receive people who want to seek shelter on the Cayes, , Belize City, Belize District, Dangriga and Punta Gorda.

First set of shelters that will open: San Pedro:
1. New Horizon 7th Day Adventist School
2. San Pedro High School
3. San Pedro RC Primary

Caye Caulker: 1. Caye Caulker RC School
1. Garden City Primary School
2. Belmopan Comprehensive High School

Belize City 1. St. John’s Vianney
2. Unity Presbyterian Primary School
3. St. Luke Methodist Primary School
4. St. Martin De Porres Primary School
5. Pallotti High School



Earl approaching hurricane strength
Accuweather

8/3/2016 12:17:51 AM

Tropical Storm Earl is located at 16.1° N, -83.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 65mph and gusts to 75mph

Tropical Storm Earl continues on a westward path late this evening and is slowly strengthening as it treks closer to Belize. Earl, now a 65-mph sustained tropical storm, remains in a suitable environment for additional strengthening over the next 24 hours. Earl may briefly become a hurricane before it makes landfall in Belize. There is still some question regarding its interaction with the higher terrain of Honduras as it pushes westward. The Sierra La Esperanza Mountain range hugs the northern coast of Honduras, with some elevations ranging between 6,000 to 8,000 feet. If Earl maintains a more westerly track and interacts with these higher elevations, this would prevent further strengthening. Regardless of whether or not Earl reaches hurricane strength, the storm will be situated in the very warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras with relatively low wind shear aloft, which will be conducive for maintaining very strong tropical storm strength.

Rainfall and gusty winds will move into Honduras and Nicaragua this morning before spreading into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Across this area, potentially hurricane-force wind gusts and flooding rainfall can be expected. Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula could have upwards of 12 inches of rain as Earl passes. Heavy rainfall across any mountainous terrain could trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

Should the system survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, it will likely graze the extreme southern Bay of Campeche where some re-strengthening would be likely prior to a potential second landfall in southern Mexico either late this week or early in the weekend.

For more information, click for our daily Tropical Weather Report


#516453 - 08/03/16 04:47 AM Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,691
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

TS Earl Bearing Down On Belize, May Be Hurricane By Landfall

Tonight the entire country of Belize is under a Tropical Storm Warning and there is a Hurricane Watch for the entire country.

This is for Tropical Storm Earl, which at 6:00 pm had strengthened to maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour - making it a very strong tropical storm.

The storm is moving westward near 16 miles per hour and the Met Office says that - at this rate - the center of Earl will pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and be very near the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

So, tonight, Belizeans all over are waiting with apprehension and watching carefully, and here's what you need to know.

The storm is expected to make landfall at or near category one hurricane strength on the coast of Belize. Where exactly? It's too early to tell, but the computer models suggest that the storm is heading right to Belize City, or may veer to the north. Now while you may hear us say that it will be a Tropical Storm or a Category 1 hurricane - and think that it could be worse, this is a very serious matter - we all remember the last Category 1 storm to hit Belize that was Richard in October of 2010, and that storm mashed up the city, and did major damage all the way to Belmopan.

But, the marginally good news is, basically you have 24 hours to prepare. The storm is currently about 395 miles east of Belize City, 370 miles east of San Pedro and 340 miles from Half Moon Caye. Today we went to the MET officer for a forecast and what we should look out for:

Catherine Cumberbatch, Deputy Chief Meteorologist
"This morning the national hurricane center in Miami sent a reconnaissance aircraft into the system and they came up and found the circulation which we were monitoring and we already had spotted the circulation before they had mentioned it to the East of the system we had spotted the circulation and that system with the winds and everything has been upgraded to a tropical storm and is now tropical storm Earl. So now at 10am this morning the position of that system was the tropical storm, Earl, was sent to near latitude 16.3 north or longitude 18.2 west. That would bring it to about 491 miles east of Halfmoon Caye Belize, 527 miles east of san Pedro Ambergris Caye, 534 miles east of Dangriga, 537 east of Belize City, 561 east of Corozal town and 571 east of Punta Gorda Town, all for the country of Belize. Tropical Storm Earl at that time was moving near 22 miles per hour and the forecast track, Earl expected to have a slight decrease in the forward speed. The center of Tropical Storm Earl will move close to the coast of Honduras late tonight and by tomorrow we'll expect that tropical storm Earl should be moving over the Belize and Yucatan peninsula area. with that said, the government of Belize has declared a tropical storm warning for the entire country of Belize and a hurricane watch for the entire country of Belize."

Deputy Met Officer Cumberbatch also discussed what they expect the weather conditions all over the country to look like over the next 36 to 48 hours. She said that the forecasting models are predicting that as early as tomorrow evening, the weather conditions all over should start to deteriorate drastically:

Catherine Cumberbatch, Deputy Chief Meteorologist
"So as you look at in a loop form, this is how the system is expected before it moves over the area. Because of the spiral bands, the whole coast line of Belize from north through to south will be impacted according to this model here. We have a small grid just over on Belize. So as you look at it here, this is by tomorrow evening at 6 o'clock, so you see that the weather will be really deteriorating from around 3 o'clock tomorrow we'll expect conditions. If the system remain at the same speed, this is the conditions of the amount of rainfall that we are expecting in the Belize area here. We expect that the rainfall starts to fall from tomorrow right on through to Thursday. we are going for a total of 12 to 8 inches of rainfall and these rainfalls can cause flood and flashflood in the higher terrain, mudslide possible flooding in the low laying area and so. We are expecting flooding in these amount of rainfall and as I said, gust, we expect the tropical storm force been to expect us. The present track of this system, possible it could be hurricane, possible we could get gust up to the strength of hurricane. Gust, not average wind speed, could reach hurricane strength."

NEMO REPORT:

And we close tonight with one more work on Tropical Storm Earl which is bearing down on Belize tonight. At 6:00 pm, the storm was 398 miles east of Belize City and moving westward near 16 mph. It is expected to make landfall on Belize Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds at 6:00 pm were near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Earl will produce rainfall accumulation of 8-12 inches over Belize and these rains could cause flash floods and mud slides especially over higher terrain. For coastal areas, there is also a risk for flooding, especially in low lying areas such as Belize City. NEMO advises that the Belize Airport Authority will be closed at midday tomorrow, and the last bus runs will leave from the north, west and south at midday and from Belize City to north, west and south at 4p.m. Also Municipal flights will be suspended at midday tomorrow. ?the public is cautioned to listen to the advisories and stay alert and if you live in a flood prone area and along the coast and your home is not safe you are strongly advised to move early to a shelter in your area.

If you are going to shelter, know which shelter you will go to and how you will get there. Take along your food, water, medications, and personal hygiene items so you can survive and weather the storm for a few days.

Channel 7


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