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Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty] #516476
08/03/16 11:48 AM
08/03/16 11:48 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

The leading edge of TROPICAL STORM EARL is now over much of Belize. Its centre is about 160 miles due east of Dangriga.

Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty] #516478
08/03/16 12:12 PM
08/03/16 12:12 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Ambergris Caye view to the sea, 11am.
[Linked Image]
Photo by Elbert Greer

Re: Tropical Storm Earl [Re: Marty] #516479
08/03/16 12:27 PM
08/03/16 12:27 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

From Belmopan...

Interesting new twist. [ Incidental, that first band of rain brought 11.6mm ( 1/2" ) to north Belmopan, now no rain. ]

This is the wind forecast, from 4 different sources. Starting from 1:00 pm Belize Time.

Notice maximum winds 60kts (70mph ) dropping from NOW, not after landfall this evening.

In fact by midnight, when the centre is likely to be over central Belize, these graphs suggest the wind will be down to 40kts 46 mph by tomorrow morning.

US Navy update 06:00 BZT 03Aug2016

So much of it is and will be over land. That fouls up the storm....

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516480
08/03/16 02:31 PM
08/03/16 02:31 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Earl is now a Category 1 Hurricane, with 75MPH winds.

Earl has become a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h).

"A landfall in Belize as a hurricane will occur late Wednesday night," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski. Property damage, downed trees and beach erosion will occur. Residents and visitors should be prepared for travel disruptions and power outages.

"Beyond Wednesday night, the greatest danger from Earl will be from torrential rainfall, which can top 12 inches (300 mm) in some areas," Kottlowski said.

Rainfall of this intensity can lead to catastrophic flooding and mudslides. The worst conditions are expected over mountainous terrain.

In addition to flash flooding, major river flooding can occur along with road washouts and closures.

The heavy rainfall will be released as Earl weakens while moving over land during Thursday and early Friday.

There is a chance Earl will trek over water once again. Should Earl drift over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later Friday, the system could strengthen, prior to making another landfall.


Crown Weather:

Hurricane Earl:
5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT Statistics:
Location: 17.1 North Latitude, 86.0 West Longitude or about 150 miles to the east of Belize City.
Maximum Winds: 75 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 Millibars or 29.18 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 14 mph.

Earl has become the second hurricane of the season with winds of 75 mph (Alex way back in January was the first). In addition, Earl is the first hurricane in the western Caribbean since Sandy in 2012. It is expected that Earl will make landfall as a 80 to 90 mph hurricane very near Belize City late tonight. After making landfall in Belize tonight, it is expected that a large upper level high pressure system over the southern United States will steer Earl on a west to west-northwest path across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico on Thursday and possibly moving temporarily into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday before finally moving inland into southern Mexico on Saturday.

Forecast Impacts Across Belize, The Southern Yucatan Peninsula & Northern Honduras:
Winds: Tropical storm force winds are expected to spread inland across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula this evening with hurricane conditions expected to develop across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and then continue through a good part of Thursday. Winds are expected to diminish to below tropical storm strength across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday evening.

Rainfall: The impacts from Earl are expected to be severe across Belize, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula as rainfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches and possibly more will cause flash flooding and mudslides across Belize from tonight through Thursday and Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning leading to flash flooding and mudslides.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels are expected along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula tonight into Thursday morning. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels are expected on the Bay Island of Honduras tonight into Thursday morning.

For more information, click for our daily Tropical Weather Report

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516481
08/03/16 02:52 PM
08/03/16 02:52 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Mata Grande beach area .... Water levels are rising significantly..

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516483
08/03/16 03:01 PM
08/03/16 03:01 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

The centre of activity of HURRICANE EARL has changed direction. It is now going up more north, presently it looks as if it will make Landfall much nearer to Belize city than it was moving earlier.

This storm has not maintained a steady course, despite the various weather information put out.

I consider the centre of activity and where the most damage might occur as the centre to be considered, which is not always necessary the centre of the low pressure. ( TS Colin, low pressure centre was in open clear sky with the activity some 200 miles to its east. ) But this TS Earl main active centre has been zig zagging, but this morning it has done a more gradual change of direction, having moved from about 16.651N 84.864W to where it is about now 17.104N 86.003W.

A straight line through those two points goes through Belize near Corozal. But it is not necessarily following a straight line. So it now looks more like Landfall between Dangriga and Corozal. It is now over deeper water, which may influence its behaviour.

The second line of heavy rain is now starting to cross over into Belize starting earlier in the north.

Not a lot of rain seen behind that 2nd line, but the heavy rain might be masking the Radar signal.

The Belize City Swing Bridge will be swung at 4:30 pm today.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516484
08/03/16 03:15 PM
08/03/16 03:15 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

VIDEO: San Pedro Belize Preparing for Hurricane Earl

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516485
08/03/16 04:18 PM
08/03/16 04:18 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

The sky grows darker as the storm nears the island. Photo by Ben Popik



NEMO hereby informs that Hurricane Earl was centered near Latitude 17.1°N, Longitude 86.0°W or about 103 miles east-southeast of Half Moon Caye, 141 miles east-southeast of San Pedro Ambergris Caye, 147 miles east of Dangriga, 150 miles east-southeast of Belize City, 181 miles east-southeast of Corozal Town, and 198 miles east of Punta Gorda Town.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Earl is moving westward near 14 mph and some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track, Earl will MAKE landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday morning. Earl will produce rainfall of 8-12 inches over Belize with possible higher amounts. These rains could cause flash floods and mud slides especially over higher terrain. For coastal areas, there is also a risk for flooding, especially in low lying areas.

The predicted path/impact areas HAVE CHANGED to north of Belize City. It will move over Half moon caye; Long Caye; Middle Caye; Long Caye Turneffe.

The main impact zone now seems to be shifting to Belize River Valley area villages such as Willows Bank; Rancho Dolores; Isabella Bank; Double Head Cabbage; and villages in southern Orange Walk such as Guinea Grass, Chang August Pine ridge San Felipe, Indian Church and parts of Corozal to a lesser extent.

Sequence of expected approach for Hurricane Earl is as follows: the outer atolls will be affected at about 7:00 p.m. tonight. San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Corozal, Orange Walk and Belize City will experience 40 mph winds at about 9-11:00 p.m. At midnight we will begin to experience Hurricane force winds over the projected path. At 1:00 a.m. hurricane force winds will be over mostly the Northern half of the country.

Shelters opened are as folows:

San Pedro:

1. New Horizon 7th Day Adventist School (14 people)
2. San Pedro High School (82 people)
3. San Pedro RC Primary (30 people)

Caye Caulker:

1. Caye Caulker RC School

Orange Walk

1. Trial Farm (9 people)
2. Multi Purpose Building


1. Garden City Primary School
2. Belmopan Comprehensive High School
3. University of Belize

Belize City:

1. St. John’s Vianney (187 people)
2. Unity Presbyterian Primary School (87 people)
3. St. Luke Methodist Primary School (155 people)
4. St. Martin De Porres Primary School (186 people)
5. Pallotti High School (59 persons)

South Side Belize:

1. Queen Square Primary School
2. Grace Primary School (Full)
3. Salvation Army Primary School
4. Maud Williams High School (7 persons)
5. Trinity Methodist


1. Ecumenical High School (12 persons)
2. Sacred Heart Parish Hall (4 persons)
3. 3 Holy Ghost RC School (0 person)
4. 4 Hope Creek Methodist School (8 persons)
5. Parish Hall (3 persons)

Belize Rural:

1. Biscayne Gov’t School
2. Sandhill Community Centre
3. Crooked Tree Government School (50 persons)

4. Our Lady of Lourdes RC

Punta Gorda:

1. Bethel SDA (14 persons)

  • All employers are hereby advised that they are to comply with the directive (s) from NEMO regarding employees safety. In the circumstance an employee has the right to seek safety. Any employer who prevents and employee from leaving, commits an offense under the provisions of the Labour Amendment Act #3 of 2011.
  • Actions to be carried out by the public.

  • Continue to listen to the advisories and remain vigilant.
  • Seek shelter, move to higher ground away from the coast and low-lying areas. People in Bungalow, ground floor level building will experience flooding.
  • Parents are hereby urged to keep their children and family members safely indoors.
  • If you live in a flood prone area and along the coast and your home is not safe you are strongly advised to move early to a shelter in your area. If you are going to shelter, know which shelter you will go to and how you will get there. Take along your food, water, medications, and personal hygiene items so you can survive and weather the storm for a few days.
  • NEMO urges all to protect their life. Listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service.

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

    Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516487
    08/03/16 05:07 PM
    08/03/16 05:07 PM
    Joined: Oct 1999
    Posts: 60,092
    oregon, spr
    Marty Offline OP

    Marty  Offline OP



    LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W

    At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches Belize tonight. Weakening will begin after the center of Earl moves inland.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

    RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

    Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516488
    08/03/16 05:27 PM
    08/03/16 05:27 PM
    Joined: Aug 2016
    Posts: 1
    Anthony Carden Offline
    Anthony Carden  Offline
    Me and my girlfriend have a tripped planed. We are schedule to arrive Saturday afternoon and we are staying for a week. Can sombody please give me advice if I should cancel my trip or not ??? We have been looking foward to this trip for months !! My girlfriend even got scuba certified just for this trip. What do you think the conditions will be ?? Will they be tollorable ?? I would hate to spend our entire trip indoors without sunlight !! :(( I know it may be too early to really tell what the outcome is but I was thinking mabe a local would have experience something similar... And could give us some advice on what to expect over the next few days !! Thank you much !! STAY SAFE MT FRIENDS !!

    Last edited by Anthony Carden; 08/03/16 05:43 PM. Reason: Edit
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