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Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516489
08/03/16 05:55 PM
08/03/16 05:55 PM
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 53
San Pedro, Ambergris Caye
Conch Creative Offline
Conch Creative  Offline
The hurricane will pass tomorrow. There may be some damage. There should be no reason to cancel your trip. You booked during hurricane season so there is always a risk of storms and rain. There are no guarantees, but it will be passed by Saturday. If you're seriously concerned talk to your airline and to your resort.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516492
08/03/16 06:57 PM
08/03/16 06:57 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,018
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
Diane Campbell  Offline
8 pm, Ambergris Caye. Winds are kicking up like crazy.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516494
08/03/16 08:10 PM
08/03/16 08:10 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 utc), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located by an an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 north, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before landfall.

Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure system. Little change has been made to the previous official forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus.

Init  04/0300z 17.4n  87.6w   65 kt  75 mph
 12h  04/1200z 17.7n  89.3w   50 kt  60 mph...inland
 24h  05/0000z 18.2n  91.4w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 36h  05/1200z 18.5n  93.5w   25 kt  30 mph...inland
 48h  06/0000z 18.8n  95.1w   30 kt  35 mph...over water
 72h  07/0000z 20.0n  98.3w   20 kt  25 mph...inland
 96h  08/0000z...dissipated

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516501
08/04/16 02:58 AM
08/04/16 02:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

10pm Wednesday night in San Pedro:
Significant storm surge in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. The waves are pounding the piers. Winds are howling hard with gusts up to 66mph. There are many reports of people in distress on Ambergris Caye as the winds are damaging homes, construction sites are collapsing lifting zinc roofing from various structures and there has been a report of a fire. Storm surge has flooded coastal areas to the east of the island and power is out in most areas. The eye of the storm is about 15 miles east of Belize City, just outside the Turneffe Atoll.

11pm: Reports are that Belize City is currently with out power. Strong winds up to the 80 mph, minimal rain. Damage is being reported in both San Mateo and Escalante. Apparently two houses have collapsed in San Mateo, and a roof top was blown off in Escalante.

Hearing people are evacuating apartments on first floor along Boca Del Rio (just north of San Pedro town), no power in San Pedro, Smart/Digicel internet not working/ wind getting serious in San Ignacio, rain coming down in sheets, garbage cans rolling in streets, power just went out here too.

word trickling from town is LOTS of water/damage. Surge was HIGH.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516502
08/04/16 02:58 AM
08/04/16 02:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

...EARL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE... The eye passed a couple of miles to the south of Belize City.

The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City, Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to move across central and northern Belize this morning, move across northern Guatemala and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland. Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later this morning and to a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading through central and northern Belize near the center of Earl. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in the warned area, and should spread into the southern Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala this morning.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should subside today as the center of Earl moves farther inland. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It should be noted that several global models forecast the development of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of Earl.

The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.

Init  04/0900z 17.3n  88.9w   65 kt  75 mph...inland
 12h  04/1800z 17.8n  90.6w   45 kt  50 mph...inland
 24h  05/0600z 18.3n  92.7w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 36h  05/1800z 18.6n  94.7w   30 kt  35 mph...over water
 48h  06/0600z 19.0n  96.1w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 72h  07/0600z 19.5n  99.5w   20 kt  25 mph...inland/remnant low
 96h  08/0600z...dissipated

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516503
08/04/16 03:03 AM
08/04/16 03:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Hurricane Earl makes landfall Wednesday night in Belize

8/4/2016 5:33:02 AM

Hurricane Earl is located at 17.3 N, -88.9 W with maximum sustained winds of 75mph and gusts to 90mph

As of early Thursday morning EDT, the center of Hurricane Earl was located about 50 miles west-southwest of Belize City and continues moving west at 15 mph. The system made landfall around 1 AM CDT near Belize City. Earl will weaken significantly today as it interacts with land, and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm this morning and a tropical depression by this evening.

Rainfall and strong, gusty winds will continue to impact Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula today. Hurricane-force winds mostly in gusts will be felt along and just inland from the coast of Belize through this morning before Earl weakens. This will cause downed trees, utility lines and some wind damage to structures along and just north of the hurricane's path. Isolated tornadoes might occur ahead of and just north of the hurricane's track. Parts of Belize, the southern Yucatan and portions of Guatemala will see rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with the potential for some places to pick up 12 or more inches of rain. Heavy rainfall across any mountainous terrain could trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516504
08/04/16 03:16 AM
08/04/16 03:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
From San Pedro:
Hurricane Earl is now over Belmopan Cayo and those folks are now experiencing the strong winds residents of San Pedro did earlier. Still cannot believe how much the wind is still howling here on the island; not as strong as about midnight but still very strong. Still getting pounded but I hear people in Belize city have it bad.

Word is that a lot of piers and structures on the water are severely damaged. Many piers are gone!!! There was about a 6-foot storm surge on the beach side with little on the lagoon side. Praying for everyone to be safe. Daylight will tell extent of damage.

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516509
08/04/16 04:41 AM
08/04/16 04:41 AM
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 3
Colton A Offline
Colton A  Offline
We are flying in today from Houston should we cancel our trip? We are staying at terra deal sol. Everyone stay safe!

Last edited by Colton A; 08/04/16 04:43 AM.
Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516510
08/04/16 04:47 AM
08/04/16 04:47 AM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,145
bobcat bill Offline
bobcat bill  Offline
Check with the airline PGIA will be closed until the storm has past

Re: Hurricane Earl [Re: Marty] #516511
08/04/16 05:11 AM
08/04/16 05:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 60,092
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
From Belmopan....
I can't be sure of the max wind speed, from trees down, I would guess 60 - 70 mph
I can't see the centre of the storm at present 05:45 There is no clear centre.
The wind is now from the East, which would appear to indicate the centre is South of Belmopan.
There has not been a calm period, but less wind now at 05:45 than there was 5 hours ago.
Wunderground think it is now 5:00 Belize time, in Guatamala.
Which does not match the East winds I am getting in Belmopan, which are less now than at midnight.

News 5
At 5:30 a.m. the rains have mostly subsided but strong winds persist throughout the day.
Though power is out for most of the country we'll still be attempting to broadcast and share damage assessment reports.

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