...EARL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE... The eye passed a couple of miles to the south of Belize City.
The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City,
Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85
kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central
pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity
is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this
advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land.
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
move across central and northern Belize this morning, move across
northern Guatemala and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today,
and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts, and additional weakening is expected as the
center moves farther inland. Earl is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm later this morning and to a tropical depression by
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading through central and
northern Belize near the center of Earl. Tropical storm conditions
are spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in
the warned area, and should spread into the southern Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Guatemala this morning.
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz
through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are
possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the
Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should subside today as the center of
Earl moves farther inland. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it
is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center
reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less
than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no
re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its
remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which
should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It
should be noted that several global models forecast the development
of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the
next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with
the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of
The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the
system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre
that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days.
This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with
isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.
Init 04/0900z 17.3n 88.9w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
12h 04/1800z 17.8n 90.6w 45 kt 50 mph...inland
24h 05/0600z 18.3n 92.7w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
36h 05/1800z 18.6n 94.7w 30 kt 35 mph...over water
48h 06/0600z 19.0n 96.1w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
72h 07/0600z 19.5n 99.5w 20 kt 25 mph...inland/remnant low