2017 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Forecast

Crown Weather

Summary: The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be less active than the 2016 Hurricane season, however, the number of named storms this year is expected to be near or slightly less than average. A big reason for this is due to fact that a weak to moderate El Niño is expected to develop either this summer or autumn. Should this happen, then it would mean not only a lower than average number of named storms, but also the potential for an early end to the hurricane season.

With that said, the forecast for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season is a difficult one due to the fact that it is uncertain whether we will see a full-blown El Nino form or whether there may be a delay of the onset of El Nino. If the forecasts for El Nino are incorrect and there is a delay in the formation of El Nino, then we could see a much more active hurricane season than what we are forecasting right now.

Finally, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, I am also expecting the formation of at least a tropical storm in the western Atlantic during either May or early June. You can read my thoughts on this possibility by going HERE. In addition, I also think that we could start out “quick” with tropical storm/hurricane formation from May to August, but then slow down substantially in activity during September with the hurricane season potentially ending early in October.

The Numbers: 12 named storms, 6 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 95. This number basically says that I expect that overall activity in the Atlantic may be 5 percent below the long term average.

ENSO Forecast: All of the ENSO model guidance, including the European, CFS and JAMSTEC models, are forecasting the development of a weak to moderate El Nino by late Spring and certainly during this Summer. An analysis reveals that ocean water temperatures in the far eastern Pacific are above average which indicates that some El Nino conditions seems to be developing. With that said, the overall weather pattern across North America is very La Nina like and if we do see a weak to moderate El Nino develop this Summer, it would be sort of unusual. The reason why is because we just came off of a relatively strong El Nino back in 2015 and it’s quite unusual to see a new El Nino develop just 2 years later. In addition, even though the ocean water temperatures over the eastern Pacific are near El Nino threshold, there is a pool of subsurface cold water which could delay the onset of El Nino.

Bottom line is that I am not completely convinced that we will see quick development of a weak to moderate El Nino by May, June or July. Instead, I could see a scenario that consists of a much more delayed onset of El Nino conditions until at least the September to November time frame.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are below average and this indicates to me that tropical cyclone formation across the central and eastern Atlantic will be below average this year. Further west, the ocean water temperatures across the Caribbean and the western Atlantic are generally above average, however, they are somewhat cooler than they were at this time last year. In addition, ocean water temperatures across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico are well above average while ocean water temperatures across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico are either near average or slightly above average. The above average ocean water temperatures across the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could potentially mean we could see most of our tropical systems form either in the western half of the Caribbean or close into the US coastline and the Bahamas.

European Model Seasonal Forecast: The European model is forecasting a hurricane season that is about 80 percent of average (or about 20 percent below average). In addition, it is forecasting that high pressure and dry air will control the central and eastern Atlantic from about the easternmost Caribbean to the coast of Africa making this region unfavorable for tropical development. The overall reason for this is the model’s forecast for a moderate El Nino during the peak of the hurricane season. Should this not pan out, then we could see more activity than what the European model is forecasting.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what this hurricane season may be like. They are 1908, 1951, 1953, 1957, 1972, 2002 & 2009. The reason why we picked these 7 particular years are that all had either neutral ENSO conditions or a weak La Nina the previous year which transformed into a weak to moderate El Nino during the current year. It should be pointed out that our 1953, 1957, 1972, 2002 and 2009 analog years (5 out of 7 of the years) had a tropical storm or hurricane landfall on the northern US Gulf Coast.

Risk Areas:

The Northern Gulf Coast is an area of particular concern this year for either a tropical storm or hurricane landfall. This is supported by the analog years that I have identified as 5 out of the 7 analog years have had at least one tropical storm or hurricane landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast.

Another area that may be of some risk from a tropical storm or hurricane landfall is along the US Southeast Coast from eastern North Carolina to eastern Florida. 4 out of the 7 analog years had either a close brush with or a direct impact along the coast between eastern Florida and eastern North Carolina.

The central and eastern Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa could be very inactive due to colder than average ocean water temperatures and potentially unfavorable conditions across the eastern Atlantic.

Looking towards the Caribbean, it appears that the western half of the Caribbean may be at higher risk from a tropical storm or a hurricane impact than the eastern half of the Caribbean. The Bahamas are another area that have an increased threat this year from either a very close brush or a direct impact from a tropical storm or hurricane.

All-in-all, I think that we will see a majority of the tropical systems this years form in the area north of 20 North Latitude and west of 60 West Longitude with the area of main concern the Gulf of Mexico and particularly the northern US Gulf Coast.

2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irma
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Calls For a Near-Average Number of Storms, Less Active Than 2016
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be less active than a year ago with the number of named storms and hurricanes near historical averages, according to an outlook released Monday by The Weather Company, an IBM business. A total of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes are expected this season, which matches the 30-year average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic basin. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The outlook cited that the potential development of El Niño later this summer along with current and forecast sea-surface temperature anomalies played a role in their forecast for a near-average season. But there remains plenty of uncertainty regarding El Niño's possible development, and therefore, how much of an effect it could have on the hurricane season. "If El Niño fails to launch, we may be too low with our numbers," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

2017 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Updated May 20th)
Latest indications continue to point to the potential that the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be more active across the central and eastern Atlantic than what we previously thought back in early April. The big reason for this forecast of a more active season is due to the fact that a El Nino may never really form this summer or autumn and if it does, it may end up being quite weak. In addition, the ocean water temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic have warmed quite a bit over the past month. The combination of these two factors plus other indications point to the potential for an average number of named storms with the Lesser Antilles, the eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast at risk from at least 1 tropical storm or hurricane. In addition, I continue to believe that we will see the formation of at least a tropical storm in the western Atlantic during the month of June. The area I think has the highest probability of formation is around the Bahamas, the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA predicts active Atlantic hurricane season with 5 to 9 hurricanes
The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form. Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Of the hurricanes, two to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September. A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph. Meteorologists at Colorado State University last month estimated 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts back in the 1980s.

Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is Most Likely This Year: NOAA
Residents living in Hurricane Alley need to prepare for what may be another busy Atlantic hurricane season. In its first outlook for 2017, issued Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicted a 45% chance for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 35% chance for a near-normal season and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. NOAA gave a 70 percent likelihood of 11 - 17 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 75%-155% of the median. These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, which developed in April over the northeast Atlantic. If we take the midpoint of these ranges, NOAA called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, located in College Park, Md, has issued its update outlook for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. It's now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and has increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes.The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010. The updated outlook is based on the current and evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the most recent model predictions, and pre-and early-season storm activity. The numbers announced today include the season activity to-date.

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