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Western Caribbean Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Late This Week Into This Weekend

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Possible Late This Week Or This Weekend: It continues to look possible that we could see some sort of tropical development occur by either the end of this week or during this upcoming weekend. This potential tropical development could occur in the western Caribbean as an area of low pressure takes shape there during this weekend. By next week, enough of a ridge of high pressure to the north of this system could send it on a general west-northwest and possibly a northwest course into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday and then the western Gulf of Mexico around Thursday of next week. At the minimum, this system will be wet and messy system that brings plenty of rainfall to the western Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula late this week and this weekend and to the Bay of Campeche, eastern Mexico and south Texas during next week.

Let’s Take A Look At The Latest Model Guidance:

One pretty significant difference with the latest model guidance as compared to a few days ago is that they are forecasting a stronger ridge of high pressure which has led to a trend towards a more southerly course of this system from the western Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. A couple of observations with the model guidance, including the GFS, European and Canadian models.

My first observation is that they continue to be unanimous and unwavering in their forecasts of tropical development starting this weekend in the western Caribbean with this tropical system forecast by all of the model guidance to move into the Bay of Campeche and then the western Gulf of Mexico next week.

My second observation is that some of the model guidance, especially the latest European model guidance, is forecasting a pretty favorable environment for organization and strengthening of the tropical system by Sunday and Monday as it moves from the western Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche. This is something that will need to be watched for very closely as there is a possibility that we could have a strengthing tropical cyclone tracking through the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico towards eastern Mexico and south Texas by the middle part of next week.

In addition to this, it is forecast that the Madden Julian Oscillation will be in a favorable state for tropical development across much of the Atlantic Basin for at least the next week to ten days. This means that the background state of the atmosphere will be supportive of tropical development in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean. This also means that the background state will be atmospherically favorable for tropical development for the tropical disturbance that has just moved off of the coast of Africa - more on that later in this discussion.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on the overwhelming model support and model consistency for tropical development first in the western Caribbean this weekend and then the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico next week, I am going with a 30 to 40 percent chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean very near Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula between Saturday & Monday.

As I have already mentioned, heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding is expected across Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula starting as soon as Thursday or Friday and continuing through this weekend. This heavy rainfall and flood threat is forecast to shift into southern and eastern Mexico from Tuesday through Friday of next week. Some of this rainfall could also impact south Texas towards late next week. At this point, I think heavy rainfall with flash flooding will be the main threat with this system, however, as I have already mentioned we will need to keep an eye on the possibility of steady strengthening of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of next week given the possibility of favorable environmental conditions.

A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the western Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several days.

NEMO Warns About Weekend Weather

There's some heavy weather headed this way - and it has prompted NEMO to issue its first national advisory of the Hurricane Season. The release says, quote, "a large area of disturbed weather has formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas of Central America. The system is expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall over the country. Rainfall is expected to increase over most areas tonight and persist through the weekend. Heavy rainfall will cause localized flooding over low lying coastal areas, and may lead to flash flooding near rivers and streams especially in the south."

It adds, "People in coastal and southern Belize are advised to make the necessary arrangements to protect life and property. If you are at risk to flooding be prepared to move to higher grounds, with family or friends or to a community shelter and check on family members and neighbours who might be in need of assistance. Do not wait until it's too late to take action." end quote.

NEMO is asking national and district committees and the respective support agencies are asked to remain on alert over the weekend as NEMO continues to monitor the area of low pressure.

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) in close collaboration with the National Meteorological Service hereby informs the general public that a large area of disturbed weather has formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas of Central America. The system is unlikely to develop significantly within 24 hours, but there is a medium chance for further development during Sunday and Monday as it moves north-westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Even though significant development is not expected at this time, the system is expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall over the country. Rainfall is expected to increase over most areas tonight and persist through the weekend. Heavy rainfall will cause localized flooding over low lying coastal areas, and may lead to flash flooding near rivers and streams especially in the south.

• People in coastal and southern Belize are advised to make the necessary arrangements to protect life and property.
  
• If you are at risk to flooding be prepared to move to higher grounds, with family or friends or to a community shelter and check on family members and neighbours who might be in need of assistance.
  
• Do not wait until it's too late to take action.
  
• Drivers are asked to drive with extreme care to avoid accidents due to slippery road conditions.

NEMO emergency coordinators can be reached as follows;
i. Corozal, Mr. Williard Levy at 623 0237;
ii. Orange Walk, Ms. Suliema Celiz at 605 5046, or Mr. Aragon at 636 6094;
iii. Belize District, Mr. Lionel Tillett at 6154834 and Mr. Kevin Pollard at 621 2275;
iv. San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 632 3698;
v. Belize City, Ms. Timrose Augustine at 600 8672;
vi. Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 630 9791;
vii. Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 630 3224 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 625 2526;
viii. Stann Creek, Mr. Keith Emmanuel at 615 9711; and
ix. Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 630 9787.
x. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936.

The public is asked to continue to pay attention to the official reports and advisories from the National Meteorological Service and NEMO. Do not listen to rumours. Stay alert. NEMO national and district committees and the respective support agencies are asked to remain on alert over the weekend as NEMO continues to monitor the area of low pressure.