#525315 - 08/20/17 01:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey forms, bears watching
[Re: Marty]
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,373
Marty
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Ex-Harvey May Regenerate
Ex-Harvey is likely to regain tropical storm status at some point in the week as it heads west to west-northwest through the Western Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Harvey was beginning to reorganize, with a decent-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that were increasing in intensity and organization. Wind shear was moderate, 10 – 15 knots, the atmosphere had a not-terrible-for-development mid-level relative humidity of 55 – 60%, and the ocean was warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C (83°F.) An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Sunday afternoon to see if a closed surface circulation is forming. The atmosphere will grow moister and the SSTs will grow warmer as ex-Harvey progresses to the west. None of the 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system before it made landfall on Tuesday morning in Belize. However, the UKMET and European model predicted development of ex-Harvey back into Tropical Storm Harvey by Wednesday, when the storm is forecast to be in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 60%, respectively. Regardless of development, northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico can all expect very heavy rains in excess of four inches from ex-Harvey, which will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides.
Jeff Masters / Category 6
At 12 p.m. local time, Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organisation in association with the remnants of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en-route and should provide a better assessment of the structure of this system. As a result, the National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) will continue to monitor the progress of the remnants of Harvey.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook click here.
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#525320 - 08/21/17 05:09 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey forms, bears watching
[Re: Marty]
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,373
Marty
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Last night it appeared the storm was reforming and rotating. It had developed a clear centre. This type of storm tends to redevelop at night time.
However, this morning it looks broken up again.... Looks like it will brush along the north Honduras coast and come into Belize, Monday evening into Tuesday morning. I am not sure about this, but with total lack of information from any of the proper weather channels, I am suggesting being more cautious and prepared.
A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey,
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The remnant circulation of Harvey is analyzed as a 1007 mb low
along the wave axis near 15N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 14N-21N between 78W-86W. Gradual
development of this system is still possible through Monday night
while it moves west-northwestward near the coast of Honduras. It
could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-
level winds. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled..
will keep watching....

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#525333 - 08/21/17 07:46 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey forms, bears watching
[Re: Marty]
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,373
Marty
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From Belmopan...
Quite a well-up over Roatan.
The band of rain that came across Belize last night was associated with Potential TS HARVEY and there is much more rain to come from it. The next band of rain is presently out at sea, over Roatan island, but could arrive over Belize later this morning, this is the sort of centre of the storm. It looks as if it will hit Belize between Dangriga and Monkey River, but then there are other swell-ups bringing rain later, for central and northern Belize over Monday and Tuesday. Although I am seeing significant rotation in the overall storm system, I am not seeing any high winds in the general centre area. It is still looking more like a collection of ITCZ type swell-ups, with others covering the whole of the western Caribbean, right up to the Yucatan.
Looks like today will be very patchy, rain, cloud, some sun occasionally. Flooding is a risk.
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#525335 - 08/21/17 08:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Harvey forms, bears watching
[Re: Marty]
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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,373
Marty
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From Belmopan...
The weather people on REMNANTS OF HARVEY which is more than disappointing that they are no longer tracking this storm, because it has the ability to cause significant damage to property and even life, through possible serious rainfall and flooding.
I have been trying to figure out why they are not still reporting this storm.
The best excuses I can figure out are :
1) It is not a threat to any part of the USA
2) They have already got the Named storm number up, when they named it a week ago, pretending it was a Tropical Storm, when it has never been a proper Tropical Storm, with Rotting winds of over 39 mph.
It has been a very odd storm, a group of ITCZ type swell-ups moving together, through the Caribbean, at present the there is significant rotation of the whole mass of clouds, but not a central rotating core.
But that is no excuse for the Belize Met Office for not advising us on their Storm Tracking what is happening.
And even less of an excuse for NEMO not to be on top of what is about to happen.
Lets just hope that there is not the amount of rain that this collection of storms could, theoretically produce.

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