Ex-Harvey May Regenerate

Ex-Harvey is likely to regain tropical storm status at some point in the week as it heads west to west-northwest through the Western Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Harvey was beginning to reorganize, with a decent-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that were increasing in intensity and organization. Wind shear was moderate, 10 – 15 knots, the atmosphere had a not-terrible-for-development mid-level relative humidity of 55 – 60%, and the ocean was warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C (83°F.) An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Sunday afternoon to see if a closed surface circulation is forming.

The atmosphere will grow moister and the SSTs will grow warmer as ex-Harvey progresses to the west. None of the 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—developed the system before it made landfall on Tuesday morning in Belize. However, the UKMET and European model predicted development of ex-Harvey back into Tropical Storm Harvey by Wednesday, when the storm is forecast to be in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche.

In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 60%, respectively. Regardless of development, northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico can all expect very heavy rains in excess of four inches from ex-Harvey, which will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides.

Jeff Masters / Category 6

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At 12 p.m. local time, Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organisation in association with the remnants of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en-route and should provide a better assessment of the structure of this system. As a result, the National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) will continue to monitor the progress of the remnants of Harvey.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook click here.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this system is still possible through Monday night while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.

Last night it appeared the storm was reforming and rotating. It had developed a clear centre. This type of storm tends to redevelop at night time.

However, this morning it looks broken up again.... Looks like it will brush along the north Honduras coast and come into Belize, Monday evening into Tuesday morning. I am not sure about this, but with total lack of information from any of the proper weather channels, I am suggesting being more cautious and prepared.

A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The remnant circulation of Harvey is analyzed as a 1007 mb low along the wave axis near 15N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-21N between 78W-86W. Gradual development of this system is still possible through Monday night while it moves west-northwestward near the coast of Honduras. It could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper- level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled..

will keep watching....

The more I read these forecasts the more I think of baseball where there are tons of stats, lots of waiting and generally only sporadic action. We weather junkies love out stats on the past - lower barometric pressure ever, analog years activity ..... then when the game is on we launch into whats doing now and then what might happen if other things we don't know much about happen and what might occur if other things happen that we think we know about. then % odds are posted and the public places bets by boarding up, leaving or staying.
As for today - I'm watching the pitcher.

amen sister. these storms are not about the past. They are about NOW.

Just about the take the Ouiji board out. At Chaa Creek. Do I stay or do I go? Go.....

From Belmopan...

Quite a well-up over Roatan.

The band of rain that came across Belize last night was associated with Potential TS HARVEY and there is much more rain to come from it. The next band of rain is presently out at sea, over Roatan island, but could arrive over Belize later this morning, this is the sort of centre of the storm. It looks as if it will hit Belize between Dangriga and Monkey River, but then there are other swell-ups bringing rain later, for central and northern Belize over Monday and Tuesday. Although I am seeing significant rotation in the overall storm system, I am not seeing any high winds in the general centre area. It is still looking more like a collection of ITCZ type swell-ups, with others covering the whole of the western Caribbean, right up to the Yucatan.

Looks like today will be very patchy, rain, cloud, some sun occasionally. Flooding is a risk.

From Belmopan...

The weather people on REMNANTS OF HARVEY which is more than disappointing that they are no longer tracking this storm, because it has the ability to cause significant damage to property and even life, through possible serious rainfall and flooding.

I have been trying to figure out why they are not still reporting this storm.

The best excuses I can figure out are :
1) It is not a threat to any part of the USA
2) They have already got the Named storm number up, when they named it a week ago, pretending it was a Tropical Storm, when it has never been a proper Tropical Storm, with Rotting winds of over 39 mph.

It has been a very odd storm, a group of ITCZ type swell-ups moving together, through the Caribbean, at present the there is significant rotation of the whole mass of clouds, but not a central rotating core.

But that is no excuse for the Belize Met Office for not advising us on their Storm Tracking what is happening.

And even less of an excuse for NEMO not to be on top of what is about to happen.

Lets just hope that there is not the amount of rain that this collection of storms could, theoretically produce.

With the risk of flooding I'd say get out of Cayo now unless you want an excuse to stay a while ....... could be difficult to navigate Western Highway tomorrow.

Can we please order up enough storm to kill the mosquitoes? They are swarming beyond anything I can recall. I'll trade a few high waves and a power outage for relief from these guys.