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#525520 - 08/31/17 06:09 AM Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,381
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017

(Click "refresh page" to be sure you are seeing the latest information...)

General Situation:
Belize NMS: Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail as a tropical wave moves out of our area.
Advisories: Small craft caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near showers and thunderstorms.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with sunny breaks today and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms will affect mostly northern and central areas today then southern and some coastal areas tonight.
Winds: East | 5-15 kts
Sea Surface Temp (°f): 86
General Outlook: For Fri. and Fri. night is for partly cloudy skies with showers or thunderstorms generally isolated, except for a few more over the south.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: At 9:00pm Tropical Storm Irma was centered near 16.4N, 32.2W or about 545mls west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Irma was moving west at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph.

Marine Conditions:
  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today E-SE 10-20 kts Choppy-Rough 3-5 ft A FEW SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR PERIODS OF RAIN MOSTLY NORTH.
Tonight E 10-20 kts Moderate-Rough 4-6 ft A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY SOUTH.
Tomorrow E-SE 10-20 kts Moderate 4-6 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Outlook E-SE 10-20 kts Moderate-Rough 4-6 ft A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro

Current Caye Caulker Weather Information

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Windfinder forecast for Ambergris Caye & San Pedro

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 12:40 PM High: 7:15 PM
Low: 12:02 AM (Fri.) High: 5:49 AM (Fri.)
Sunrise: 5:39 AM Moonrise: 2:03 PM
Sunset: 6:07 PM Moonset: 1:33 AM (Fri.)

CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook click here.


#525526 - 08/31/17 06:51 AM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017 [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,165
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the sea is calm with a S-SE wind at 3 mph. Clouds and overcast with an expected high of 88 f.

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#525530 - 08/31/17 08:02 AM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017 [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,381
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

From Belmopan...

A massive area and high ITCZ swell-up occurred covering most of Honduras, moved op over night, over Belize causing a lot of rain in many parts. That is now reducing as it moves up into Guatamala and Mexico. There is a lot of ITCZ activity in the western Caribbean and central America at present. There are two area of cloud in the Atlantic we have to watch, one is already a storm TS IRMA which appears to be going north of the Caribbean, but some suggest it could veer down into the Caribbean as a Hurricane. This could develop in to a Cat.3 Hurricane.


Looks like today is going to be very cloudy this morning, possibly not too much more rain


Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Wed max. 31°C 88°F Last night min. 24°C 75°F

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:BHXX0104;loctype:1
Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=MD1029#history
Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IBELIZED2#history


#525534 - 08/31/17 10:33 AM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017 [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,381
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

Hurricane IRMA is looking serious. Already at Cat.2 Hurricane and possibly Cat.4 before it gets to the West Indies.


Navy track....



#525536 - 08/31/17 11:22 AM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017 [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,939
Diane Campbell Offline
.
Diane Campbell  Offline
Current weather - major thunderstorm with copious rain and very frightened dogs.
Not a good day for pouring cement, kite-surfing or getting a tan.
Excellent day for cuddling with a loved one, popcorn, gratitude (note to self, buy popcorn!)


#525541 - 08/31/17 03:53 PM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2017 [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,381
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

From Belmopan...

This is the first tracking chart I have seen so far for Hurricane Irma. But it does show its wind speed staying up between Cat.1 and Cat.4 for much of the next 7 days or more. Could get to Belize around 8 - 9 days time.
" track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line) " is often one of the most accurate tracks.



Monthly Rainfall Summary, August 2017

National Meteorological Service of Belize

THE MONTH OF AUGUST SAW RAINFALL LESS THAN NORMAL AT ALL STATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS, WHERE LESS THAN 45 PERCENT WAS RECIEVED. TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES THREATENED TO AFFECT BELIZE; TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PASSED TO THE NORTH WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT, AND TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA AND THE REMNANT LOW MOVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AGAIN WITH LITTLE EFFECT.

A MODERATE AND RELATIVELY DRY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILED AT THE BEGINING OF THE MONTH AND SUPPORTED MAILY FAIR WEATHER FROM THE 1ST TO THE 3RD. THE UPPER PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT. SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH A FEW MORE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH AT NIGHT. RAINFALL OCCURRED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WAS NOT MORE THAN HALF AN INCH PER DAY. THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS (4-6) AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY INLAND DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVER THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. PUNTA GORDA RECORDED JUST OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 5TH. THE WAVE DEVELOPED A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 15N/82W AND WAS GIVEN A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 6TH. BY THAT NIGHT, TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND WAS HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST NORTH OF BELIZE. SOME SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN AFFECTED MOST AREAS DURING THAT NIGHT AND CONTINUED THE NEXT DAY AS TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN APPROACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABOUT ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED AT BELIZE CITY AND BLUE CREEK TOLEDO. TS FRANKLIN MOVED ACROSS YUCATAN AND SUPPORTED A GUSTY SOUTHEAST AIRFLOW OVER BELIZE ON THE 8TH. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS, WITH THE RAINS INCREASING OVER MOST AREAS THAT NIGHT. RAINFALL HOWEVER, WAS LESS THAN ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT TWO DAYS (9-10) SAW SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS OR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVER THE SOUTH IN THE NIGHT. SAN PEDRO RECEIVED ALMOST FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 9TH.

FROM THE 11TH TO THE 15TH, CONDITIONS DRIED OUT SOMEWHAT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTED A GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT UPPER PATTERN PREVAILED DURING THAT TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH A FEW MORE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOME PARTS OF THE COAST AT NIGHT; WITH THE SOUTH RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ON SOME NIGHTS. THE 16TH SAW A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS AN EAST-WEST LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THAT AREA. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS (17-19) THE WEATHER RETURNED TO MAINLY FAIR COUNTRYWIDE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECAME MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE SOUTH ON SOME NIGHTS, WITH PUNTA GORDA RECORDING ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 17TH. OVER THOSE SAME DAYS, TS HARVEY FORMED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IT TOWARDS BELIZE. (HARVEY DEGENERATED THAT NIGHT, AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE MOVED WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN, THEN REFORMED ON THE 23RD IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.)

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPED TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON THE 20TH, WITH PUNTA GORDA RECORDING ALMOST THREE INCHES OF RAIN. AS THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY APPROACHED OUR AREA, THE SURFACE FLOW BACKED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FEW SHOWERS AND RAIN AFFECTED COASTAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ON THE 21ST, THEN MAINLY THE INTERIOR THE NEXT DAY AS THE LOW MOVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS AGAIN MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTED A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST AIRFLOW AND A GRADUAL DRYING OUT AT LOW LEVELS. THIS RESULTED IN GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 23RD AND 24TH. THE NEXT DAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY INLAND AND OVER THE SOUTH, WITH MORE OVER THE SOUTH THAT NIGHT. THESE WERE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK TROPCAL WAVE. HURRICANE HARVEY MEANDERED OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SUPPORTED MAINLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER OVER BELIZE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRED FROM THE 26TH TO THE 29TH WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. A TROPICAL WAVE THEN SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS ON THE 31ST.



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