AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Keeping a long range eye on the Caribbean

Conditions in October and November may end up quite favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone development, especially in the Caribbean, which is a climatological hot spot late in the season. Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are substantially above average (1-2°C), and long-range models are calling for below-average surface pressures during October in the western Caribbean, which signals a higher-than-usual chance of tropical development. Moreover, we are currently in a La Ni�a-like pattern-with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) already present in the eastern tropical Pacific-and this may help keep wind shear in the tropical Atlantic below average.

Both the GFS and European long-range models are suggesting the potential for a tropical cyclone developing in the Northwest Caribbean or eastern Gulf of Mexico somewhere in the 7- to 14-day period. In an outlook published on Tuesday, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) highlighted a moderate risk of tropical cyclone formation in the Oct. 4 - 10 period across the Northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric Kelvin wave located in the eastern equatorial Pacific this week will be moving toward Central America, favoring upward motion, according to CPC.

If a tropical cyclone does develop, it could end up being a slow-moving one, as a massive, summerlike upper-level ridge is expected to develop across the central and eastern U.S., blocking any quick movement toward the north (and likely bringing record or near-record October heat).

Jeff Masters and Category 6

Figure 4.  Outlook for the tropics of North America for the period Oct. 4 - 10, 2017, from the Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook issued by NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday, Sept. 26. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.

Sounds like they expect a storm to develop in our area and then move towards Florida, strengthening into a hurricane as it nears the gulf coast of the USA...

Tropical Development Remains Quite Possible From The Northwestern Caribbean Into The Southern Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Through This Weekend: We are keeping a very close eye on the area from the the northwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico for signs of tropical development late this week through this weekend.

There are three weather features that I think will be the catalysts for this potential tropical development.

The first feature is a trough of low pressure that is located just north of Hispaniola. This trough of low pressure is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity, however, there are no signs of organization.

The third feature that may kick off tropical development late this week is a westward moving tropical wave that is currently located over the central Caribbean. This tropical wave will reach the northwestern Caribbean by the middle part of this week.

All three weather features will combine in one way or another to initiate tropical development in the area from the northwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico late this week through this weekend.

Let’s take a look at the latest model guidance: The latest model guidance as a whole are more threatening with the northwestern Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico system.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts that a tropical storm will form in the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday and forecasts this tropical storm will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Sunday. From there, the Canadian model forecasts that this system will strengthen into a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Monday and forecasts it to make landfall as a hurricane over the Big Bend of northwestern Florida next Monday night.

The European model guidance forecasts the development of two systems - the first near Cape Canaveral, Florida by Friday into Saturday and a second over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The European model forecasts that the first system, which develops into a tropical storm to move up the entire US East Coast on Sunday into Monday and forecasts the second system which becomes almost a hurricane to impact the Big Bend area of northwestern Florida next Monday.

The European ensemble guidance is honing in on the development of just one system in the northwestern Caribbean at the end of this week with a majority of the ensemble members showing a northeasterly track towards the Florida Peninsula by early next week.

The UKMET model guidance has trended a little stronger and shows a track that has a intensifying tropical storm/hurricane heading for the Florida Panhandle late this weekend and early next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that the area from the northwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico are going to be the area to watch out for tropical development. The idea proposed by the GFS and European model of another tropical system to form first near Florida seems unlikely right now and I think that instead we should see one main tropical system form in the northwestern Caribbean at the end of the week and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

This is worrisome because we could have a potential tropical system developing in an environment that consists of extremely warm ocean water temperatures, plenty of moisture and possible favorable wind shear conditions. This means that we could have a intensifying tropical storm or hurricane headed north-northeasterly or northeasterly towards either the Florida Peninsula or the Florida Panhandle by around next Monday or so.

I will be monitoring this potential tropical system very closely and will have frequent updates for you in the coming days.

Crown Weather