Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2017 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: A cold front is affecting the country. Advisories: Small craft caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. Localized flooding is likely for low lying areas and flood prone areas. 24-hour forecast: Cloudy and windy with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms over most areas this morning, then mainly over the south and coast decreasing tomorrow morning. Winds: North-Northwest | 15-25 kts | Gusty Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 General Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for mostly fair and cool conditions. Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. Marine Conditions:   Winds Seas Waves Details Today N-NW 15-25 kts Rough 4-7 ft A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. Tonight N 15-25 kts Rough 5-7 ft A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY SOUTH. Tomorrow N 10-20 kts Moderate-Rough 4-7 ft FAIR, WINDY AND COOL. Outlook N-NE 10-20 kts Moderate-Rough 4-7 ft MAINLY FAIR AND COOL. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro Current Caye Caulker Weather Information Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Windfinder forecast for Ambergris Caye & San Pedro   High Low Coastal 28° C 82° F 21° C 70° F Inland 29° C 85° F 18° C 64° F Hills 24° C 75° F 16° C 60° F TIDES: Low: 7:59 AM High: 1:41 PM Low: 6:43 PM High: 1:16 AM (Thu) Sunrise: 5:49 AM Moonrise: 10:36 AM Sunset: 5:25 PM Moonset: 10:06 PM CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

On Ambergris Caye this morning our grey sky and rain continue but now with a strong wind from the North. Boaters should be aware of how a strong North wind on our reef appears deceptively calm but just beyond the Barrier is extremely rough. Our expected high today is 82 f.

From Belmopan...

The many Swell-ups are still all around us, presently out at sea, perhaps due to the northerly cold front pushing down over Belize right now, which NOAA can't be bothered to show. This, is presently pushing the continuing rain away from Belize. But at the same time, causing the ITCZ activity in the western Caribbean to become more active, so the rain may return in a day or so.

Looks like today will have a fair amount of cloud cover, some sun later, and some rain showers in some places.

The Cloud & Rain picture.

Presently the northerly cool air is holding the rain away, but some of that cloud swell-up is moving directly in towards Belize. Things could change, and the rain then come in this afternoon, or the cool north wind could hold it away for longer.

Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Tue max. 26°C 78°F Last night min. 23°C 72°F

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:BHXX0104;loctype:1
Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=MD1029#history
Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IBELIZED2#history

Good advice from Elbert about caution the water with this North wind. Not so long ago some young men ignored this advice, took a kayak out and only one returned. They were US Army Rangers and very fit. It was both incredibly sad and totally avoidable. If only they had listened to the advice of the locals who told them to stay on land.

NOAA has now decided to put the cold front back in again. But this squeezing of the very active ITCZ weather all along this latitude at this time, appears to have intensified the activity off Nicaragua, together with a, what they call a tropical wave, could cause further problems.

The Hurricane people were, a few days ago, warning of a 40% chance of a storm developing, they have, over the last two days, reduced that chance to 10% But it does need watching.

I have not seen any development at all, over the last 5 or more days, but it is worryingly active and changeable, and with this new cool winds blowing into it from the north, it is not clear what effect it will have at present.