I just do not know what the NOAA weather people are doing. About 4 days ago, they were warning of a 40% chance of a storm developing off Nicaragua, but that went down to 10% and faded out, now they are suddenly saying >60% chance of a Tropical storm (18) and taking off across Cuba, but also showing another one coming up from the Pacific at Belize.
But my mornings cloud picture on the left, shows active ITCZ areas, which have both died down, during the day as I expected. I am getting the impression they might just be guessing. . . If nothing happens, then they can say >60% means a 40% chance nothing will happen. How is this probability is keep changing and out of ITCZ swell-ups, which have been going on in this area for the last 2 weeks. Perhaps tomorrow I will be able to see more. They are now showing a "L" just off Belize, but we had a "L" sitting on Belize since the 20th, the cold air pushed that to the east.