Low Pressure Development Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico & Northwestern Caribbean Possible By Tuesday: We are watching the tail end of a frontal boundary that stretches from the North Atlantic to the southwestern Caribbean for a piece of energy that will move northward over the next couple of days and become a low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday. This low pressure system has the potential to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Cozumel and Cancun, western Cuba and parts of south Florida from Tuesday into Wednesday.
Most of the model guidance hint that there will be a upper level low pressure system that will drop into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and move as far south as the Yucatan Channel on Tuesday. This will help to foster the development of low pressure somewhere between the northwestern Caribbean and the northern Bahamas on Tuesday, depending on which piece of guidance you are looking at.
The European model guidance is the most aggressive with this setup as it forecasts low pressure to form over the Yucatan Channel on Tuesday morning that pushes northeastward reaching the Florida Keys by late Tuesday. From there, the European model guidance forecasts this low pressure system will pivot north and then northwestward across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night into Wednesday where it weakens as the upper level dynamics move northeastward away from this system. Other model guidance, such as the GFS and Canadian model guidance are not very aggressive at all and keep the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico and the piece of energy lifting northward from the southwestern Caribbean separate leading to no robust low pressure system development.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think there is a 50-50 chance that we will see some sort of low pressure system form over the south-central or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Given the setup of a upper level low pressure system dropping as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, it makes sense that energy on the eastern and southeastern side of the upper level low will help to spin up a surface low presssure system.
I want to emphasize that any low pressure system that does form will be non-tropical in nature and that wind shear values likely will be too high to support a tropical or sub-tropical storm to form.
Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds may impact parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Monday night into Tuesday before spreading into western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun during Tuesday. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the heavy shower activity with locally gusty winds could impact the central and southern Florida Peninsula before ending Wednesday night.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with this forecast as the GFS and Canadian models forecast most of the impacts will occur across the Bahamas and a large part of Cuba in the form of rain and gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday and keep Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula mainly dry.
It's definitely a weather pattern to at least keep an eye on and I will have updates for you over the next couple of days as conditions warrant.