Belize Weather Forecast: May 5, 2018

The Caribbean Sea

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba along 78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the circulation center covers the area from SW corner of the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between 65W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 74W/76W, across SE Cuba and the Bahamas, from 18N in the Windward Passage to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshoewrs cover the areas from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 27N in the Atlantic Ocean between 70W and 78W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 32N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W in the Atlantic Ocean and 86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, including in parts of Florida. This feature was forecast by the computer models at the beginning of the week. The GFS model forecast, for 250 mb and 500 mb, shows that a cyclonic circulation center will stay on top of Cuba, weaken into a trough, and then move eastward. An upper level trough will move across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The GFS model, from the surface to 700 mb, shows that a trough will move westward from its present position on top of Cuba and the Bahamas, to Florida, for the next few days.

Fresh easterly winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean Sea and in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean through Sunday night. The upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of Cuba. Expect widespread rainshowers with thunder N of 15N between 70W and 80W through Sunday night. The winds and seas will subside gradually on Monday and Tuesday.

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For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.