Chances Are Beginning To Increase For Northwestern Caribbean Tropical Development By The Middle To Late Parts Of Next Week That Moves Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Next Weekend
It is looking increasingly more possible that we will see tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean as we get into the middle and later parts of next week. All of the most recent data suggests that this will occur and it is something that we are going to have to really watch. In addition to this, the latest forecast guidance are pointing towards a track that would take this system into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend.
Looking at the latest model guidance - All of the major global model guidance are now showing tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean in about a week from now. These models include the GFS model, the Canadian model and the European model guidance. Given the overall weather pattern that I am expecting for next week, I think the guidance are starting to really latch onto the tropical development idea and it may be correct in this thinking.
The GFS model guidance has been the most consistent in showing tropical development and is currently forecasting that low pressure will initially develop over the southwestern Caribbean early next week that slowly moves north-northwestward reaching the northwestern Caribbean by about next Thursday. From there, the GFS model guidance forecasts this system to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by next Friday and next Saturday.
The Canadian model guidance forecasts tropical development to occur in the northwestern Caribbean next Thursday and next Friday that moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then across central and south Florida next weekend.
The European model guidance seems to indicate that tropical development may begin to occur by about Wednesday of next week that crosses westernmost Cuba as a tropical storm next Friday. From there, the European model guidance forecasts this system to move into the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm next Saturday that approaches the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of northwestern Florida next Saturday night and next Sunday. This type of track would bring heavy rain and winds of up to tropical storm force to a large part of the Florida Peninsula starting next Friday and continuing into next weekend.
The multi-model (GFS, Canadian and European) ensemble tropical cyclone genesis probability charts currently forecast a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the middle and later parts of next week. The European ensemble tropical cyclone genesis probability charts indicate a 25-30 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the middle and later parts of next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that we really need to pay attention for the potential of northwestern Caribbean tropical development during the middle and later parts of next week. As I have mentioned in previous discussions, the overall weather pattern is expected to be favorable for tropical development with a upper level ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the western half of the Caribbean. In addition, a ribbon of very strong wind shear that is currently invading the Caribbean is forecast to lift northward next week creating a favorable low shear environment over the northwestern Caribbean.
At this point, I think that there is about a 20 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean between Wednesday and Friday of next week.
I envision a track that brings a potential tropical storm from the northwestern Caribbean next Thursday and next Friday through the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Saturday. This potential tropical storm, I think, may make landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area of northwestern Florida sometime next weekend. This is a favored storm track this time of year and based on all of the latest data, it is the type of track that seems most possible right now.
If we do see a storm track like this, then much of the Florida Peninsula would see another round of heavy rainfall and flooding concerns late next week through next weekend. In addition, severe weather and tornadoes would also be a concern across the Florida Peninsula next weekend.
In addition to this, there will be heavy rainfall and storminess across the westernmost part of the Caribbean starting this weekend and continuing through next week. This heavy rainfall and storminess is expected to impact much of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Crown Weather Services