Flooding rain to eye Central America to Texas regardless of tropical storm potential in Gulf, Caribbean
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea may cause flooding problems along its path to the Gulf of Mexico despite a small chance to organize into a weak tropical system this weekend.
A broad area of drenching showers and strong thunderstorms is forecast to drift northwestward from the western Caribbean to the western Gulf of Mexico over the next five to seven days.
Development seems unlikely over the next few days and may not occur at all, despite sufficiently warm waters, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
A non-tropical storm in the vicinity will create substantial wind shear from Central America and the western Caribbean to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Wind shear is the variation of wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. When wind shear is strong as it is now, it prevents a circulation from developing just above the surface of the ocean.
There is a small chance of development from the west-central Gulf of Mexico late this week to near the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast this weekend.
"In order for development to occur, wind shear would have to diminish," Kottlowski said.
Impact from the disturbance and non-tropical storm
The same non-tropical storm will pump moisture across Central America, Cuba and the Florida Keys.
Thunderstorms over Cuba and the Keys are likely to be spotty in nature, although clouds will be noticeable at times.
Regardless of development into a named tropical system or not, drenching downpours and gusty thunderstorms are also in store close to the disturbance's path as it moves northwestward.
The disturbance may enhance the downpours enough to cause flash flooding.
During the middle days of the week, the potential for isolated flash flooding and mudslides will extend from Nicaragua to Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018
A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.