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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: June 17, 2018

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevails but a gradual decrease is expected over the next 24-48 hrs.
Advisories: *small craft caution for occasional gusty winds and rough seas, especially near showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms over northern areas this morning, then becoming generally isolated, before a few showers or isolated thunderstorms will re-develop mainly over the south tonight.
Winds: East-Southeast | 10-20 kts | Gusty
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 82
General Outlook: (Monday and Monday night) Sunny with a few cloudy spells and isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Yucatan is associated with a surface trough and an upper level low. The trough continues to have a low chance of further development. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Tomorrow E 10-20 kts Moderate 4-6 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Outlook E 10-20 kts Moderate 4-6 ft (MON. NIGHT) ISOLATED SHOWERS.

The Caribbean Sea

An area of moderate convection covers the far west Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, mainly west of 82W. This convective activity is the result of a trough interacting with an upper-level low centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong trades across the central Caribbean between 69W and 83W will slowly diminish tonight. The strongest winds will become confined to the S central waters, with similar pulsing winds continuing in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras.

Two tropical waves are noted across the basin. Please, see the Tropical Wave section for details. A tropical wave is forecast to reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles Sun night through Mon night, and the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed night. It is expected to be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. As the wave moves across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, the moisture field is forecast by the GFS computer model to expand over the Leeward Islands, the UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, bringing an increase in showers and tstms with likely gusty winds by mid week.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro

Current Caye Caulker Weather Information

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Windfinder forecast for Ambergris Caye & San Pedro

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
81° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
24° C
75° F
Hills 27° C
81° F
21° C
70° F
Low: 6:02 AM High: 12:24 PM
Low: 7:37 PM High: 1:59 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:18 AM Moonrise: 9:18 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM Moonset: 10:26 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
This Morning on Ambergris Caye we have a strong wind from the Southeast creating hazardous boating conditions around our barrier reef. Current wind speed is 24 mph. with a heavy overcast sky. Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.

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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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From Belmopan...

As expected, this time of the year, there are bubbles and swellup patches all across the Atlantic, most of central America, Mexico and the Pacific, otherwise known as the Monsoon belt. The patches can enlarge or intensify fast, just sometimes, they may start to rotate. We have had three such rotations, develop very fast in the Pacific, just off the Mexican coast. The large Caribbean / Gulf cloud activity has not started rotating, but is moving in to the southern US coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, there are two swellups closer to home, one on the Yucatan, just north of Belize and one in the Pacific by Guatamala, with a lot of straggly bits and high cloud between and over Belize. Rain in many places around, but presently little or non in Belize.

Looks like today is going to be very variable, but mainly cloud, with a significant chance of rain showers later.

Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F

Ambergris Caye:;loctype:1
Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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The Cloud picture. Complex cloud movements over Belize. The regular Caribbean winds are from the east or ESE. And the main high level from the SW, but there is also some high level from the NW. The main cloud however, is coming up from the south, driven by the complex areas of Monsoon cloud in the Pacific and Central American swellups, to the south of Belize.

I am seeing three swellups in the Caribbean, but one is right over Belize, and moving up into Belize from the south, so probably rain over night for many of us.

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