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Invest 99L #531851
08/16/18 04:46 AM
08/16/18 04:46 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,976
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next 2 to 3 days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. After that time, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development when the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Invest 99L [Re: Marty] #531878
08/17/18 06:58 AM
08/17/18 06:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,976
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Invest 99-L, which is a tropical wave located about 500 miles or so to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, continues to be monitored closely. Satellite imagery over the past 48 hours has shown that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 99-L has been going through cycles of flaring up for up to 12 hours followed by the convection dying out for up to 12 hours. Currently, we are in a cycle where the convection is just beginning to flare back up. This type of convective process does not usually lead to tropical development as normally you would want to see the convection persist for a day or two before you really start looking at the tropical development chances.

Even though, the wind shear values are favorable for development, the lack of sustained, robust thunderstorm activity makes me think that development is unlikely and this is supported by all of the reliable model guidance. Very strong wind shear across much of the Caribbean is likely to lead to Invest 99-L eventually dissipating.

Everyone across Barbados and across the Windward Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands should still be ready for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds today through this weekend.

Crown Weather Services

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