It is expected that even though Kirk will likely dissipate in the eastern Caribbean late this week due to very strong wind shear, we are going to have to keep a very close eye on its remnants when it reaches the western Caribbean next week.
Even though the longer range model guidance agree that western or central Caribbean tropical development is a possibility later next week, they cannot agree as to how this may occur. The GFS model points to a scenario of some of the energy from Kirk combining with energy from the eastern Pacific to produce a tropical storm in the central Caribbean late next week and next weekend.
The Canadian model forecasts Kirk to remain a tropical storm all the way across the Caribbean with impacts to Jamaica on Sunday, the Cayman Islands on Monday and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
The European model forecasts dissipation in the eastern Caribbean around Friday and Saturday with some of the energy consolidating in the southwestern Caribbean early next week. By late next week, the European model forecasts some development just south of Jamaica.
The European ensemble guidance shows a large amount of its members forecasting Kirk to move into the southwestern Caribbean later next week. Beyond that, the ensemble members are split with some forecasting a northward track towards the Bahamas next weekend and others forecasting a track towards the Bay of Campeche.Here Are My Thoughts:
I think that there is enough evidence in the data that suggests Kirk or the remnants of Kirk may make it into the western Caribbean during the late part of next week. One thing that is for sure is that Kirk has been a fighter and I have concerns that it could be a western and possibly central Caribbean problem late next week. Where it goes after that remains to be seen, but the long range ensemble guidance suggests the southern US high pressure ridge may back off to the west allowing for any tropical system to head northward out of the Caribbean. With that said, it should be noted that all of the guidance have been under forecasting the strength of the upper level ridge in their long range forecasts and we may end up seeing a stronger upper level ridge in the end. What this means is that the northward track forecast by some of the guidance may be wrong and we may end up with a system that tracks westward towards the Bay of Campeche instead of northward towards Florida and the Bahamas.
Bottom line is that I really do think that the western Caribbean will be a spot to watch very closely for potential tropical development late next week, however, it is way too early to say where exactly any system may go.Crown Weather Services