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Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018 #532661
10/08/18 06:07 AM
10/08/18 06:07 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 66,967
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

Marty  Online Happy OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Tropical storm Michael over the extreme northwest Caribbean moving northward away from Belize.
Advisories: *Small craft caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rought seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Residents living in flood prone areas are advised to remain on the alert for the possibility of localized flooding later this evening and tonight.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with sunny breaks this morning becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Little to no rainfall is expected this morning and then some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will affect mainly inland, central and northern areas this afternoon and tonight.
Winds: West-Southwest | 5-15 kts kts | Gusty, Sea State: Choppy-Rough
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
General Outlook: Some showers and thunderstorms will develop inland on Tuesday afternoon and spread to coastal areas late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Storm Michael was centered near latitude 20.6N longitude, 85.5W or about 100mls SSW of the Western Tip of Cuba. Michael was moving to the North at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. At 3:00am Tropical Storm Leslie was centered near latitude 35.2N, longitude 47.9W or about 990mls ENE of Bermuda and was moving to the ESE at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Tomorrow S-SE 5:15 kts Choppy-Moderate 3-5 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Outlook SE-S 10-20 kts Choppy-Rough 3-7 ft A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Michael near 20.0N 85.4W 997 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Michael will move to 21.1N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 85.6W Mon evening, 24.4N 86.0W Tue morning, 26.3N 86.1W Tue evening, and inland to 30.4N 84.5W Wed evening. Michael will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 34.9N 78.4W late Thu, and become extratropical as it moves to 40.7N 64.4W Fri.

An upper level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
High: 9:29 AM Low: 3:28 PM
High: 9:37 PM Low: 3:50 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:44 AM Moonset: 5:37 PM
Sunset: 5:35 PM Moonrise: 6:09 AM (Tue)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.
CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro

Current Caye Caulker Weather Information

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018 [Re: Marty] #532663
10/08/18 08:04 AM
10/08/18 08:04 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,813
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the Southwest wind puts our barrier reef in the islands lee making the sea around the reef very calm. The overcast in today's photograph is moving off revealing a sunny day. The expected high temperature today is 88 f. It seems the bad weather has moved on.

[Linked Image]

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018 [Re: Marty] #532665
10/08/18 09:01 AM
10/08/18 09:01 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 66,967
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

Marty  Online Happy OP

From Belmopan...

It looks like a full blown hurricane, but there is actually very little rotation visible in these pictures, mainly due to this picture only showing the cloud tops. The dark spot is just the point between three swellups. So any one could be the centre of activity. Wunderground are showing it as a Cat.1 hurricane, but only listing it as a TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL. What ever it is, it is no threat to Belize, in fact giving us dry weather, no rain on the radar anywhere near us.

Looks like today will be mainly sunny with significant clouds, a possibility of some rain showers this afternoon.

Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 25C 78F Yesterday max. 32C 89F

Ambergris Caye:;loctype:1
Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018 [Re: Marty] #532666
10/08/18 10:03 AM
10/08/18 10:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 66,967
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

Marty  Online Happy OP

I am not all that keen on nullschool, but it is useful for a wider overview. This picture shows how all the cyclones or rotations are interlinked. The large area in the north Pacific is feeding some cloud to HURRICANE SERGIO in the eastern Pacific. But then there is some Pacific spin off towards Belize, which has been feeding high level clouds for weeks, and is now part of TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL now leaving Belize waters and going over Cuba towards the USA and there is a link of moving air from Africa, where there is increasing cloud and a potential storm INVEST 93L possibly developing.

Meanwhile, you can clearly see how the Jet-stream is feeding TROPICAL STORM LESLIE which is moving towards that other circulation near Spain, that I highlighted the other day. They are also expecting Leslie to intensify again, as it goes towards Spain, up to a hurricane again. ( Leslie has never been Tropical, born out of a fold in the Jet-stream and kept going by the jet-stream, although it did gain strength from conventional hurricane lifting of warm sea water. )

But it is usually the polar rotations that are the largest and most dramatic.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 8, 2018 [Re: Marty] #532668
10/08/18 02:15 PM
10/08/18 02:15 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 66,967
oregon, spr
Marty Online happy OP

Marty  Online Happy OP

HURRICANE MICHAEL is on its way north, crossing over western Cuba now.

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