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Potential Tropical Development #532694
10/10/18 06:55 AM
10/10/18 06:55 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 59,364
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

The National Hurricane Center - Miami has increased the chance of tropical development in the next five days to 50%.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development over the weekend and early next week while the system moves slowly westward.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Re: Potential Tropical Development [Re: Marty] #532707
10/11/18 04:16 AM
10/11/18 04:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 59,364
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow development, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



Re: Potential Tropical Development [Re: Marty] #532728
10/12/18 05:02 AM
10/12/18 05:02 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 59,364
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two and move slowly westward toward Central America through early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development, however, interaction with land will likely limit the chance of formation once the system approaches Central America on Monday and Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



Re: Potential Tropical Development [Re: Marty] #532740
10/12/18 07:33 AM
10/12/18 07:33 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 59,364
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
No Tropical Development Is Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean Or Gulf Of Mexico For At Least The Next 7 Days

Fortunately, things have quieted right now across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no areas of immediate concern.
An area of low pressure may form over the western Caribbean this weekend and then head westward into Central America early next week. At this point, it appears that tropical development now looks unlikely due to land interaction and up to 30 knots of northeasterly wind shear.

Other than that, tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week, if not longer. There are signals in the data that hint towards some sort of western or southwestern Caribbean tropical development at the very end of this month. It's not a strong signal, but there are subtle signs that this area may need to be watched around the end of this month.

Crown Weather


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