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Invest 94L Heading Our Way #532793
10/16/18 04:26 AM
10/16/18 04:26 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,373
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Looks like more wet weather coming our way. INVEST 94L No indication of rotation, but with multiple ITCZ swellups like this, and if it moves northwards, then the Coriolis effect can cut in and cause a cyclonic storm to form. This is close to us, so will not be a Tropical Storm on Belize, but it could follow MICHAEL in a similar way, if it gets into the Gulf.



A broad area of low pressure located just offshore North-eastern Honduras continues to show some signs of organization and has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression before moving inland over Belize by late Tuesday.
National Meteorological Service of Belize


94L Headed Towards Belize


Above: GOES-16 visible image of 94L at 10:45 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2018. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

A broad area of low pressure (94L) over the southwestern Caribbean near Nicaragua has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at 10 – 15 mph toward Central America. The system is under moderate wind shear of 10 – 15 knots and over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F), conditions favorable for development. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L on Tuesday afternoon.

Satellite images late Monday morning showed that 94L was on its way to developing a well-formed surface circulation near the northeast coast of Honduras, and the system had a moderately large area of heavy thunderstorms to the southeast of the developing center. These thunderstorms were growing in organization and areal coverage. The one thing 94L lacks is time; its forward speed of 10 – 15 mph should bring the center inland over Belize by Tuesday afternoon. This relatively fast motion will limit the flood threat 94L poses to Central America, but 94L will be capable of bringing 2 – 4” of rain with isolated amounts of up to 8" to Belize and northern portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. These rains will be capable of causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. In their 2 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Oscar.

Jeff Masters / Category 6


A tropical depression could form off the coast of Belize by Tuesday night (Oct. 16), the National Hurricane Center reported.

In its Monday evening update, the Hurricane Center said a broad low pressure system over northeastern Honduras was producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Storms were affecting eastern Honduras, northern Nicaragua, and portions of the western Caribbean.

"This system is expected to move near or just offshore of the northern coast of Honduras, and if the center moves offshore, a tropical depression could form before moving inland over Belize by late Tuesday and into the middle of the week," the Hurricane Center's update said.

Gusty winds were possible over portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and locally heavy rainfall was possible across portions of Central America over the next few days, the Hurricane Center said.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

The chance of tropical formation over the next two to five days was 40 percent.


Re: Invest 94L Heading Our Way [Re: Marty] #532796
10/16/18 05:14 AM
10/16/18 05:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,373
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
At 6:00am a well-defined area of low pressure located near the northwestern coast of Honduras maintains has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression before moving inland over Belize today. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible over portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula today.

Re: Invest 94L Heading Our Way [Re: Marty] #532797
10/16/18 05:24 AM
10/16/18 05:24 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,373
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and much of Central America. Although this system could still become a tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected. Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of Central America during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance's proximity to land.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Re: Invest 94L Heading Our Way [Re: Marty] #532801
10/16/18 11:49 AM
10/16/18 11:49 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 61,373
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

94L moving inland over Belize without developing

A broad area of low pressure (94L) over the southwestern Caribbean near the northwest coast of Honduras was moving inland over Central America late Tuesday morning. Satellite images and Belize radar showed that 94L did not have an organized surface circulation, and the system has run out of time to develop into a tropical depression. Heavy rains from 94L will spread inland into Central America Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing 2 – 4” of rain with isolated higher amounts.

Jeff Masters / Category 6




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